Thursday, March 18, 2010

The State of the Season

We’re now into that period of the season Sir Alex is fond of calling “squeaky bum time”. Forgetting that the phrase sounds like a chilling announcement one might hear in the prison shower rooms, I intend to examine the prospects of those whose bums are to be the squeakiest for the next couple of months.

We start with the title race.

As I mentioned in one of my few posts this season, the title race has been a bit of a farce in terms of media coverage. Arsenal have been in and out of it three times now, and who’s to say a fourth is out of the question? The bottom line is that papers need to be sold and web pages need to be hit, so an article detailing the demise of Arsenal followed by an article lauding Wenger for building a team from nothing and raising a title challenge from the dead (or, as can be recently seen on The Guardian's Website, an article talking about the death of Italian football followed by an article talking about the imminent death of most of Chelsea's aging players) sells more papers than something measured but necessarily inconclusive. We want instant gratification like “out of the race” and “back in the race” and “best player in the world”. We want clean propositional truths, not the messiness of narrative, but the way this season has gone, only a messy narrative can do justice to the events that have unfolded.

All three teams at the top are far from complete. Manchester United have often looked vulnerable in defense (especially away from home) and unimaginative in midfield, yet they lead the way and are my favourites to win the league title. They are quite boring to watch -- unless you like watching people whip crosses into the box ad nauseum -- but they are extremely effective. As with all of Ferguson’s teams, this one has a belief that defies their ability. They do not know their own limitations, therefore they continue to punch above their weight with tremendous success. These may sound like back-handed compliments, but I genuinely admire what this team is able to achieve with its current resources.

There is an ad campaign for the Irish rugby team with the slogan “Belief or nothing”. While belief may not be everything, it is fundamental to success; it is the starting point of any victory. This season’s potential triumph will be one of Ferguson’s greatest achievements as a manager, because it will have been born of the Scotsman’s unrelenting belief in players like Park, Fletcher, Valencia, and even old timers like Scholes and Giggs. Hats off, I say.

I still hate them, though.

Next in line are Chelsea. I have had serious reservations about this Chelsea team all season, starting with my prediction of them finishing outside the top 4 (you can stop laughing now). I then inexplicably predicted them to win the Champions league a third of the way through the season, only to suggest that they will win absolutely nothing shortly after. (I even foretold of their loss to Inter in the Champions League, which perhaps balances out my more outlandish prediction of a fifth place finish.) So what now?

My reservations have not waned, and I make Chelsea favourites for third place. Not because of some knock-on effect thanks to the Champions League; in fact their exit might actually help their chances in the league. They simply have too many passengers on the team. Anelka, Ballack, Mikel, and even Lampard have been carried through large spells of this season. Then there is the "flair" of the team, absent due to the pitiful form of Joe Cole and Deco, and the erratic nature of Florent Malouda.

In short, this is not a team. Their captain is a pseudo-leader, a man so determined to lead that he is unfit for the role. There have been rays of light, of course. Ashley Cole, despite himself, has been imperious all season. Drogba is a constant threat, and his goals (and assists) have kept Chelsea where they are. Ivanovic has been nothing if not consistent, and a surprising attacking force on Chelsea’s otherwise barren right wing. But their problems run deep, as suggested by the apparent overhaul about to take place this summer. The question now is whether Ancelotti is the man to rebuild the squad. For one reason or another he never did this at A.C. Milan, with the Italians now reaping the whirlwind of this negligence. Can the left-eyebrow-raising manager suddenly engineer a renovation of Chelsea? And can he do so with instant success? I remain sceptical.

Arsenal and Wenger on the other hand have been renovating for four years, with nothing tangible to show for it in terms of silverware but with plenty to commend it in terms of business savvy and aesthetics. Could this be the season when that all-important component is added - on-field success? In a word, yes. Their destiny is not in their own hands, but this will actually better suit the Gunners . They are not very good leaders, but they have proven this season that they are capable of capitalising on the slip-ups made by those ahead of them. The longer Arsenal remain within a one (or two) result swing of top spot the better for them, but of course at some point United and Chelsea will have to drop points and Arsenal will have to move into first place. The game between the current top two might be one such point. A draw in that tie would be the ideal result for Arsenal at this moment in time.

Almost as important as points won and lost will be goal difference. Arsenal are currently 8 goals behind Man Utd and 4 behind Chelsea. Given their favourable run in this is not an insurmountable deficit, and to overcome it will be worth a point, or .000000000001 of a point. Scraping out narrow wins might not be enough for Arsenal, even if they get 8 more of them. But as a plus, they may well be reunited with Robin van Persie for about half of those 8 games, so the goals might come easier as well as the wins. And with Arshavin looking more like the player of last season and Fabregas back to fitness, the unlikely is still very much possible.

I predicted Arsenal to win the league in my first post this season. Far be it from me to repent of that prophecy in the midst of squeaky bum time.



Next Up: The Champions League

Sunday, January 31, 2010

John Terry

Should John Terry remain England captain?

This is the question discussed over breakfast on the Sunday Supplement, and I couldn’t disagree more with some of the answers given.

According to Rob Beasley, there is no argument whatsoever. “Absolutely” is his one word answer to the question, as if there’s not even an issue to be discussed. He draws a distinction between John Terry the man and John Terry the football player, as if the two can be separated. They can’t, Mr Beasley. John Terry the man is John Terry the football player. You can’t talk about one person as if they are two different people. What next? Gary Glitter the man and Gary Glitter the musician? Shun the man, embrace the musician? It is this kind of thinking that leads people to say things like “Well, it wasn’t rape rape”.

Now I’m not out to condemn Terry. But it is unhelpful to all involved if we start drawing lines down the middle of a person that don’t exist in real life. To simply say that John Terry is the best English defender and therefore case closed is naïve to the extreme. It trumps the individual over the collective. How do the rest of the Chelsea players really feel about the whole thing? One wonders if they would have been quite so congratulatory had Wayne Bridge been playing left-back against Burnley yesterday evening. Their attitude resembled a “football at all costs” mentality, which is dangerous for player and fan alike. Now I’m not saying the Chelsea players should have turned their backs on Terry, but show some decency to a former teammate. Terry did so by shrugging away the embracing arms. What possessed Cech to apparently run 40 yards to jump on Terry’s back? Three points? Superficial support of a teammate? We all lauded van der Saar for staring down the United fans who threw objects at Craig Bellamy. Would the proper footballing conduct actually have been to show support to the fan who threw the coin by, I dunno, jumping on his back after the game screaming "We won! We won!"? Beasley seems to think Cech’s behaviour a good sign. I think Wayne Bridge wishes Terry hit him with a coin instead. I know I would.

Beasley mentions the Terry-Bridge ultimatum, and he’s quite right to point out that there’s only going to be one winner. But that’s all a bit irrelevant when it comes to England captain. The captain is more than the best player; he’s more than the guy who would put his head where others wouldn’t put their foot. We can all agree on that, otherwise we’d be left scratching our heads as to why Paul McGrath wasn’t Ireland’s captain.

But what more should a captain be? A pillar of morality? One who fights for truth, justice and the American way? Someone who doesn’t cheat on his wife with the mother of his friend’s child?

As Pete Gill points out, the Burnley crowd seem to think so. They booed Terry during yesterday’s game, and probably represented much of the football watching public who would have done the same. Then again, if a Burnley player was in the same position as Terry, would they have booed him? Not likely. Football fans, like football players, are fickle. The disapproving noises would surely cease if England were to rampage through the World Cup under the captaincy of John Terry.

The question is, Is Terry the man to lead them? Has his position become untenable? I’m sorry to say, but there are no easy answers to this question. One thing we can be sure of though:

“JT’s not a quitter”.

It’s sentences like that that make me want to hurt somebody.

Monday, January 18, 2010

The Title Race

It can be hard keeping up with who is and isn’t in the title race. At the start of the season, the tired line “whoever finishes above [insert either Manchester United or Chelsea] will win the league” was repeated by various pundits. Then suddenly Arsenal were in the picture after a promising start, only for them to be firmly out of the picture after succumbing to a rather unflattering 3-0 defeat to Chelsea. At that stage, many in the media were ready to hand the rather large Premier League trophy over to the Blues, whilst some went just short of petitioning for Chelsea Football Club to be the new leaders of a one world government which stands for truth, peace and justice.

Two months on -- two months which contained something of a blip for Chelsea and resurgence for the Gunners --, some were proclaiming that this was a four, a five, or even a six horse race. The untrained eye could be forgiven for thinking that you could be desperately seeking to avoid relegation while at the same time making a stab for the title.

So where are we know? Well, were back to square two, where apparently we now have a three-horse race on our hands once more. They may be three deficient horses in a comically slow race, but a three-horse race it is nonetheless, so were supposed to get excited about it.

One website is telling us to back Arsenal at 7/2 while we can, seemingly unaware that in roughly 4 weeks Arsenal will most likely be considered “out of the race” for the third time this season. They play the other members of the soon-to-be-dissembled Big 4 three gameweeks in a row, and if previous form is anything to go by then Arsenal will be doing well not to lose all three fixtures.

Therefore the time to back Arsenal will be right after the inevitable collapse, when they will once again begin to eke their way back into the title race due to the ailments of the two horses above them.

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Rooney To Barca?

There is a rumour floating around this morning that Barcelona and/or Madrid are looking to make a massive £70m bid for Wayne Rooney. Forgetting about Real Madrid, Rooney to Barcelona is up there with Riquelme to Galway United and Valeron to our Tuesday night indoor footy in terms of moves I’d love to see happen.

From Manchester United’s point of view, selling Rooney would be the beginning of the end, that is if the end hasn’t already begun. Without him they lack anyone resembling a world-class player from midfield onwards. In short, it would signal immediate disaster for the club if they sold him.

But if United are in as much financial trouble as reported, it might just be the best thing for them to do in the long run. The Premier League is dying, its best players are heading off to Spain two-by-two. The best clubs are getting weaker by the year, and so now is the time for United to take the hit and retain a chance of still being in the mix in terms of on-field success. Selling Rooney at a time when Arsenal are selling Fabregas, Liverpool are selling Torres and Chelsea are getting older and slower would be like telling everyone you’re married to a goat at the same time others around you are professing their love for sheep. It’s never a nice thing to do, but there is a good time to do it and a bad time to do it.

Of course the “Premier” League will be all the worse for this mass exodus, but it has had it coming for a while. The flashiness of the League should not be United’s concern. Instead, they should be looking to rebuild for the future by sorting out financial woes and aiming to do business in a way that doesn’t lead you to spending £65m on Berbatov, Nani and Anderson.

From Rooney’s point of view, the move makes perfect sense. He has won everything in England bar the F.A. Cup. The quality of opposition (and teammates) is dwindling, and so new challenges will only be encountered on foreign soil. England has ceased to be the country where football is played at the highest level.

Moving to Barcelona means a chance to play with the world’s best players, and a chance to play against the world’s best players. It also means a chance to go head-to-head with one Cristiano Ronaldo. Don’t you just assume that an angry man like Wayne Rooney would love nothing more than to give his former team-mate a good kicking, metaphorically and literraly?

Footballistically, to use a Wengerism, the move makes eminent sense. He would slot right in to a position on the left of Barcelona’s front three in place of the aging Henry, where he would have both freedom of movement but also much closing down responsibility which he revels in.

Of course it would be a step up. He would go from being clearly the best player in his team to being just about in the top 5. which is never an easy pill to swallow. But given his raw talent, he would not look out of place, and would only improve.

The rumour linking him to the Catalans is probably a complete fabrication, but it is a fabrication that makes sense, and one which if it materialised would leave Manchester United and the Premier League firmly in transition, but would leave Barcelona and La Liga in its prime.

Sunday, January 3, 2010

Wilshere

Wilshere Watch

I’ve heard and read a lot about Jack Wilshere, but I’ve never had a good look at him. I’ll keep one eye on him during the West Ham--Arsenal cup tie, and document my observations briefly. It will hardly make for riveting reading, but it might be nice to look back on in years to come when little Jack Wilshere is (or isn’t) "the best player in the world".

1 - Little interchange with Sagna. Quite composed, no sign of nerves.

2 - Misplaced pass forward, but nothing silly.

4 - Taken out after a nice touch around the fullback.

7 - Nice close control followed by some slight miscontrol.

8 - Sends a lofted cross into Robert Green’s domain. Something more van Persie-like was the order of the day from that position.

11. Looks to have lost the ball with a slightly heavy touch, but nicks it away from the defender to maintain possession, a la Hleb.

11. Picks up a great position in the box, but the cut-back heading straight to him is cut out.

13. Plays a ball for Sagna down the line, but the pass was never going to bear much fruit even though it was successful.

15. Keeps the ball excellently in a tight space occupied by several West Ham players, and wins a corner for his troubles. Good play, that.

21. Dribbles past a player with ease but his through ball gets blocked.

23. Gets the right side of Behrami and wins a free kick just outside the box after he is tripped.

24. Puts in a clean tackle (complete with backheel) on Diamanti, and eventually comes away with the ball.

26. Loses the ball in midfield through a combination of miscontrol and bad passing.

30. Works an effective short corner with Merida with a nicely weighted return pass.

32. Puts in a good sliding tackle on Behrami in his own half, and then gets muscled off the ball by the Swiss midfielder 10 seconds later in the other half.

37. A terrible 30 seconds for Wilshere. Hits a woeful pass straight to West Ham’s front man who could have scored. Arsenal recover, but Wilshere dwells on the ball and is dispossessed just outside his own box, leading to another West Ham chance.

42. Chance to shoot after striding onto a backheel in the box, but elects to dummy the ball onto his weaker right foot. The defender doesn’t buy it and the move ends with a corner. A left-footed curler into the far corner of the net was the order of the day. Terribly surprised he decided on anything else.

43. Receives a throw-in but volley’s the ball right into touch. Sloppy.

45. Spins the full-back well, who gets booked for a foul.

48. Lovely piece of control near the middle of the park, and maintains possession with a neat pass. That oozed class.

Half-time Report

I get the feeling he’s playing within himself, content not to give the ball away but rather unwilling to try anything game-breaking. I suppose I don’t blame him given what happened in the 37th minute when he looked quite the fool. The quality is there though. His touch is assured, he plays with his head up, rarely concedes possession and has the ever-decreasing ability to go by a player. A little more attacking urgency wouldn’t go astray though. Let’s see what the second half brings.

Second Half

50. Curls a pass straight to a West Ham player.

51. Links up well with, er, someone, and curls a precise pass wide to Vela. That was probing.

55. Tries to thread a pass into the box, but it’s straight at a West Ham defender.

57. Step-over! Which leads to a Ramsey shot from just outside the box.

59. Steps inside the full-back and slips a lovely 20 yard pass along the turf into Merida’s feet which opens up the West Ham defense.

61. Spins away from Behrami on a sixpence, but underhits the ensuing pass.

65. Subbed off.

Full-time Report

The boy does indeed have talent. There’s hints of Hleb, Iniesta and Rooney to his play, with that low centre of gravity and wonderful habit of keeping the ball at all costs. I don’t think he has the freakish ability of Fabregas or Messi, in that I don’t foresee him making a huge impact in the game in his teens. But like my beloved Andres Iniesta, I think he will be a player who grows into his role in a team over time. But time, of course, will tell.

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Do Not Be Fooled

At the start of the season I predicted a few things, some of which seem to be coming to pass, others of which look a tad silly. One of the latter might be my prediction that Chelsea would miss out on the top 4.

While I will of course admit that I was more than slightly off with that piece of foresight, I will state for the record that I don’t think Chelsea will win anything this season.

Do not be fooled by their lofty league position, their 3-0 win at the Emirates, or their huddle at the end of their most recent wretched performance.

Cast your mind back to last season, when Frank Lampard secured a late, late win for Chelsea at home to a resilient Stoke. Scenes of jubilation erupted as the team made a song and dance around Scolari. The smell of unity appeared to be in the air, and that favourite adage of Football 365 -- it is the Chelsea way to find a way -- looked never truer.

But behind the hullabaloo was a team void of a genuine collective identity, and a team void of genuine attacking talent. One man carried the show last season - Frank Lampard. This year that burden has fallen on Didier Drogba. Aside from this change, I’m not too sure what is different about this Chelsea than last season’s.

What’s that? You’re reminding me of the 3-0 win against Arsenal again? There are a couple of things I would say in response to that. First, Man City beat Arsenal 4-2, but that result had everything to do with Arsenal’s frailties and almost nothing to do with City being particularly good. Chelsea’s win told is a lot about Arsenal. It told is quite a bit about Drogba. But it told us very little about Chelsea. Their woeful displays in the subsequent games prove my point. Many put Chelsea on a pedestal after their victory over the Gunners, but it is clear that this Chelsea team are not nearly as good as the mythic Chelsea team that steamrolled Arsenal and will do so to all who stand in their way.

Those who wrote as much were simply fooling themselves into thinking that the Premier League still has a really good team, perhaps even the “best team in the world”. It doesn’t. Of course on their day, a top Premier League team can beat a Barcelona. But on their day, Stoke can beat Manchester United. Does this mean that Stoke now set the bar for others?

Chelsea are good, but they’re a long way from being great. That they sit 5 points ahead of second place only serves to tells us how much lower the standard is at the top of the league.

Jose Mourinho was watching yesterday’s game against Fulham. Based on what he saw, he will fancy his side’s chances of finally progressing beyond the last 16. Based on what I’ve seen of Chelsea over the last 4 months, I fancy Inter’s chances too.

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

What To Watch

In case you’re wondering what to watch in the Champions League tonight, here is a quick guide to help you sort the wheat from the chaff.

Group A

Look no further than this group for the most intriguing match of the final round. It’s quite simple really - Bayern Munich must win to go through. If they don’t, Juve go through. The game is being played in Turin so you would fancy the home club to do enough, but unlike some around these parts, I’m not about to break football’s oldest commandment and write off the Germans. Expect a tense game, where at least one managers job hinges entirely on the result.

Group B

Herein lies the battle for top spot. Wolfsburg need to not only beat Manchester United, but to beat them either 1-0, 2-1, or by two goals. A 3-2 victory, for example, won’t be good enough, because it will give United a better head-to-head record. It is within Man Utd’s interests to finish top, because should they not, then as things stand they will have to face one of Bordeaux, Real Madrid, Fiorentina, Barelona or Sevilla - that’s almost a 50-50 chance of drawing one of Spain’s big two. However, the other three teams on that list would probably prove to be quite favourable, so finishing second might just be a blessing in disguise should the draw be kind to United, which it invariably is. That said, the list of second place teams is made up almost entirely of outfits not unlike Fiorentina, Sevilla and Bordeaux, so after some back and forth, here is the conclusion: forget about what may happen in the draw for the last 16 - the best thing is the finish top and avoid the large possibility of facing one of Spain’s big two. Given the defensive crisis at Man Utd currently, this might actually be a game worth watching if you can’t source the one above.

Group C

Things are much more complicated here. Real Madrid need to beat Marseille away from home to guarantee top spot. If they draw and Milan don’t win, then they will also finish first. However, if they draw and Milan win then the Italians’ better head-to-head record will see them snatch first prize.

But -- and this is a pretty big but -- if Marseille not only beat Madrid, but beat them 3-0 (or 4-0, or 5-1 etc), then the French club go through in second place instead of the Spaniards, provided Milan also win (who will thus finish top). If Milan don’t win and Marseille triumph 3-0, then it is first place to Marseille and second place to Madrid.

The only way Milan can go out is if they fail to beat Zurich away from home and if Marseille beat Madrid by any score at all. If Milan lose and Marseille draw, the Italians still go through thanks to a superior record against the French.

Given that Milan lost to Zurich at home, and Madrid lost to a team in the Second Division B 4-0, anything is possible. Marseille--Madrid might just be worth watching if the French manage to get an early goal or two.

Group D

The big question from this group is can Atletico Madrid make the Europa League? That tells you just about everything you need to know. Avoid group D like the plague.


In sum, there are actually some good matches to be found in the final set of group games. Who’d have thought? My order of preference would be Juve v Bayern, Marseille v Madrid, and Wolfsburg v Manchester United.

Monday, November 16, 2009

International Football

A Few Thoughts from a Weekend of international Football:

The question surrounding most England friendlies is “What did we learn?” From manager to player to journalist, friendly-as-learning-exercise is the dominant motif. Forgive me for overstating my case, but this is a complete cop out. This kind of language makes the England national team sound like a large footballing sponge, which soaks up all that comes its way. It’s as if the team has that incredible superpower which allows you to soak up all the other powers of your adversaries and use those powers against them. England have played France, and have thus learned the art of, um, disharmony [?]. England have played Spain, and have thus learned the art of possession. England have played Germany, and have thus learned the art of never being written off. England have played Brazil, and have thus learned the art of samba football [which, if the present Brazil team are to go by, looks a lot like the kind of football Liverpool play).

The reality, whoever, is that England have learned very little that they didn’t already know. Their players are not as good as those of other top nations. You cannot learn in one game what Andres Iniesta and Xavi Hernandez have been learning their entire lives. The kind of football Spain play runs through the blood of all of its players. Their jealousy for the ball is pathological. To surrender it cheaply would be a betrayal not of “the system”, but of their inward fabric. You cannot teach that kind of disposition to men in their 20’s. It’s too late.

To illustrate my point, take Theo Walcott as a microcosm. In three of four years at Arsenal, has he developed into the “Arsenal” mould? Has he really learned to the point of transformation? I don’t think so. He is who he is, who he has been since he was coached as a child.

The England team will stand a better chance of winning the World Cup if they forget about “learning leassons” from technically superior players. England will not “out-Spain” Spain. They will not beat Brazil at their own game. They will simply need to work harder than the teams they play against, defend well, and hope the likes of Rooney can produce moments of quality at the other end.

There is a good reason why so few teams play football the way Spain play it - it is high risk. As communal as their style is, it rests on individual skill. Each player must be trusted enough so that the ball can be passed to him in any area of the pitch. After a lifetime of experience, each player has earned this trust. One cannot say the same for Gareth Barry, Michael Carrick, Frank Lampard, or any other midfielder England are likely to play. If England are to learn any lessons from their high profile friendlies, it’s that being a pseudo-Spain will not be good enough. England will only win the World Cup as England - the team that launches high balls up to Emile Heskey and hopes either Gerard or Lampard will get on the end of things.

****************

I have already talked about Spain, but allow me to touch on their “friendly” against Argentina. I knew the gap between these two sides was large; I just didn’t realise how large. Argentina went out to literally kick Spain off the park; the Spanish ended up playing the Argentinians off of it. It should have been three or four nil at half time, such was the Spanish superiority.

What a shame to see an Argentine side so bereft of talent and guile. They were the most joyous team to watch 3 years ago, with that goal against Serbia & Montenegro standing as a monument to all that is good about football. Now they are nothing short of a joke. When Maradona came in and Riquelme left, who would have thought that it would have such disastrous consequences? It does seem ironic that the entrance of the real Maradona into the nation team set-up and the exit of a failed “New Maradona” would end up biting Argentina on the back-side, but it has. Spectacularly. Just as Iniesta/Xavi embody the Spanish philosophy of football, Riquelme embodies the Argentinian. Yes he is a flawed genius, but a genius he is nonetheless. You may question his loyalty for jumping ship at the start of Diego’s reign, but you cannot question his foresight. He recognised Maradona as a tactical nightmare, and decided he could play no part in such a mess of a team.

If Argentina are going to avoid humiliation next Summer, Diego has to go, and Riquelme has to be re-installed as the focal point of the team. It’s not going to happen though, is it? And even if it does, what of the defense and goalkeeper? Still, wouldn’t you like to see how the following 6 players would gel:

……………Mascherano…Cambiasso………..

……………………Riquelme………………….

Messi………………………………….Aguero

………………….Lisandro……………………

That’s a team I could get behind. A team with Gago in it is one that I can’t.

By the way, how wrong was Paul Doyle when he said Carlos Tevez was a rich man’s Dirk Kuyt? The busy Argentinian is a far less effective player than the Dutchman. Fergie may have made a lot of mistakes in the transfer market over the past three years, but refusing to sign Tevez was not one of them.

Monday, November 9, 2009

Chelsea-Man Utd

A war of attrition. A fiercely fought contest. Whatever spin is put on the Chelsea-United match yesterday, there is no getting away from the fact that it was a frankly rubbish encounter between two teams so devoid of creativity and guile that Michael Carrick didn’t look out of place on the field.

It goes without saying that Man Utd had the better of it, but what did having the better of it actually entail? It certainly didn’t mean them having more chances, because neither team really conjured up anything worthy of the name. The Reds had more possession, but in the context of this particular game that simply amounted to being the team who gave the ball away cheaply slightly less times than Chelsea did. It was extremely rare to see a move not end after a half-dozen passes, with the ball then launched up to Rooney/Drogba.

It would be unfair to say that the game was without any quality. There was a deft pass from Rooney in the first half (made with the outside of his right foot to the onrushing Giggs) which displayed genuine skill. Nicholas Anelka also provided flashes of class with some nice dribbling. Fletcher’s ball over the top to Giggs complete with first time volley would have been a treat had it come off, but like almost everything the Welshman tried during the game, it didn’t.

The type of game this was can be summed up with the following sentence: Manchester United’s winger was employed to man-mark Chelsea’s fullback. Such is Valencia’s impotency in attack that it was probably a tactic which made the best use out of him, but what we have here is a case of “anti-football”, that term used by pretentious purists (such as myself) to describe football that intends not to create, but to destroy.

What we had on Sunday was two teams who have proven that on the biggest stage, their best (and perhaps only) weapon is anti-football. Being at home, the onus (a word you’ll very rarely see outside of football writing, incidentally) was on Chelsea to actually play football. The problem for the Blues is that they don’t have the kind of midfield up to the challenge. Frank Lampard disappears when the big boys come to town. I keep saying it, but only because it keeps happening. He will never lack effort, but more often than not he will always lack presence and authority, and the skill to manoeuvre in tight spaces. Ballack is semi-retired, as is Deco. Chelsea proved last season that they are capable of stifling the very best opponents, but they have yet to prove that they can create as well as destroy.

Manchester United have also shown themselves to be purveyors of destructive football. Forget about the myth of them being a free-flowing attacking force. When it comes to games that matter, that is the exception, not the norm. In the last few seasons, the following fact illustrates my point: Man Utd’s most creative talent, Wayne Rooney, has been deployed on the wings in order to prevent the opposition’s dangerous full-back from running amok. Could you imagine Wenger saying to van Persie, “Listen, Robin. That Bosingwa fellow is a threat down the flanks. Your job is to make sure he doesn’t get any crosses in.” The notion is absurd.

Yesterday, Rooney was finally allowed to play in a position where he can have a positive effect. The only problem was that his support player was Anderson, someone who has the creative finesse of a bulldozer. With United’s wingers tied up with keeping tabs on Chelsea’s fullbacks (who, for the record, aren’t all that when it comes to skilled attacking play), the genuine threat offered by the Manchester outfit was non-existent, and thus they were reduced to long range shooting. Their anti-football worked up to a point, but when it came to the part where creative football was required, they came up short.

Given the dodgy refereeing/linesman decision, Man Utd do have genuine reason to feel aggrieved at the result. Chelsea didn’t deserve to score, not to mention win. But if it's any consolation, there would have been little glory in winning such a poor game of football. The real injustice is that those were the two top teams in England out on that pitch, and will most likely remain so come May. The challenge for Arsenal is to stop that from happening. Last season Barcelona secured not only a treble, but a victory for football. They may have had only one way to play (as Tim Lovejoy churlishly suggested), but it was the right way. Arsenal do not know how to play football destructively. It may prove their undoing, but as a fan of the beautiful game I live in hope that their aesthetically pleasing brand of football translates itself into a winning brand of football. The more this happens, the more other teams will try to emulate it.

Saturday, November 7, 2009

Top 10 Predictions

Top 10 7 Predictions


In order to resurrect a dead blog, I was asked to come up with some left-field predictions for the coming 9 months of football. It’s hard to do this sort of thing without sounding purposefully contrary, and I won’t profess to have avoided that pitfall when all is said and done. Nevertheless, here is a collection of predictions that may or may not ruffle your feathers.

Premier League Winners

I picked Arsenal before the season began, and I see no reason to shy away from that (at the time unpopular) choice. Others -- most notably Eamon Dunphy, who completely wrote Arsenal off at the start of the season -- have joined the bandwagon since, for obvious reasons. Arsenal are playing the best football right now, and have more attacking talent at their disposal than even Barcelona. Barcelona’s bench (when at full strength) consists of Pedro, Bojan, and Jeffran. Arsenal’s has Rosicky, Nasri, Eduardo, Bendtner, Walcott. Even though I just compared, there is no comparison.

In a league campaign, Arsenal should win enough games to take the prize. They may fall short against their direct rivals, but as Manchester United proved last season, that is no obstacle to winning the league.

Champions League Finalists

It’s hard to look past Chelsea as one of the contestants, but I think they may well be joined by an outsider this season. My three to watch out for are Juventus, Inter Milan and Bordeaux, with Inter just shading it. They were quite unlucky to go out against Man Utd last season, and by getting rid of perennial CL knock-out flop Ibrahimovic they’re chances can only have been improved.

English Teams in the Champions League

The last two seasons have seen three English teams reach the semi-final stage. This season I expect there to be only one Anglo representative - the aforementioned Chelsea. Manchester United are extremely beatable right now, so unless they get a favourable draw (or invest well during January) I can’t see them going deep in the competition. Arsenal just seem like a team that will find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. They inspire no confidence when it comes to tight two-legged affairs. As for Liverpool, well, that one’s self explanatory. However, should the unlikely happen and they make it out of the group, the tired cliché will once again prove true - no one will want to draw them.

World Cup Winners

The odds suggest that a team other than Spain will win the thing, so allow me to choose at random one such team. I’ll go for Germany. A WC semi final in 2006, a Euro 2008 final. This is their time to go one step further. They’re by no means the best international side around, but a 1-0 win against Russia in Russia suggests that they are more than capable of stepping up to the plate when necessary.

World Cup Flops

The easy answer is Argentina, although if they crashed out in the group stages would it really be considered a flop given recent goings on? As such, I’m going to go against everything I believe about football and pick Spain. Their win in 2008 was remarkable for a number of reasons, one of which being the relative lack of hype surrounding them before the tournament. Things will be a lot different in 2010, and one wonders if the under-achievers tag won’t rear its ugly head once more. They breezed through qualification alright, but come next summer some key players will surely be just about ready to collapse. Xavi looks tired already, while Torres is quite literally a broken man right now whom Liverpool can’t afford to fix. Add to that list some injury prone players like villa and Iniesta, and Spain could be in trouble before a ball is even kicked in South Africa. Their defense is not likely to bail them out either. Puyol, Pique and Sergio Ramos are a collective mistake waiting to happen, so chances will always present themselves to the opposition.

My rather novel prediction is that Spain will just about make it out of their group, but then lose to high flyers England in the last 16, with England making it to the semi-final before losing out to the Germans…on penalties.

PL Player of the Season

There are currently three stand-out performers in the Premier League right now - Cesc Fabregas, Robin van Persie and Didier Drogba, with the latter looking particularly spectacular. Between the three of them they have 21 goals and 23 assists, which is phenomenal. I suppose a lot will depend on who wins the league, so given that I’ve picked Arsenal to go the distance I’ll back Fabregas to pick up the prize. After a moderate start to the season the Spaniard looks up for it (if you’ll excuse the Tony Cascarino-ism), knowing that this is as good a chance as any to win some prime silverware with the club he has spent a third of his life at.

Surprise Package of the Season

There is one team in the Premier League that is defying all reasonable expectations given the amount of average players that make up their weekly team-sheet. Rather than potentially challenging for a top 4 spot, they are in fact looking more and more likely to be taking a stab at the top prize itself. It may not come as a surprise to some, but to me the big spenders in Manchester should not be where they are, and yet they are. Of course Manchester United do have a rich history in the competition, but that doesn’t change the reality that they are hugely reliant on Darren Fletcher. Of course it’s not hard to see why that’s the case, what with Anderson, Nani, Valencia, Giggs, Carrick and Scholes being his distinctly underwhelming contempories at the club (no disrespect to Scholes, who was once the finest midfield player in the league).

Then you have Wayne Rooney, the patchiest player in England (which is no mean feat in a country boasting such patchy luminaries as Gabby Agbonlahor and Shaun Wright-Phillips). He’ll score 6 in 6 and look like the best player in the world, and then not do anything for a month. As for Berbatov, he seems to think that plucking the ball out of the sky with a velvet touch is enough to excuse him from actually playing football, a game where his team spends about 40% of the time without the ball. If he actually consistently contributed in terms of attack (and wasn’t so annoyingly smug) he might be forgiven (as Ronaldo was by many), but the Bulgarian remains unreliable, especially in games that matter.

And yet, and yet, United could win the league. A team that, on paper, is barely better than Sunderland’s, will almost certainly be there or thereabouts come May. This should surprise us, people! If I sound anti-United, I am. Unashamedly. I loathe them from the depths of my being. But don’t let that fool you into thinking that I’m completely wrong. Nobody is “objective” about anything, let alone matters pertaining to football.


As the keen observers will have noted, I was asked to make ten predictions but only mustered up seven. If there are any particular requests then fire them this way, otherwise I'll leave things as they stand.

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Too Many Kiss-related Puns?

Cesc Fabregas produced a masterclass in midfield play against Blackburn last Sunday. Having assisted Arsenal's first three goals he decided to cut out the middle man and simply put the ball in the back of the net himself.

The ensuing celebration was notable for one main reason: it contained the ever popular badge kissing from a player who's been linked with a transfer to pastures greener, in this case, Barcelona.

The more cynical Arsenal fans might have cast their minds back to the beginning of last season, when Emmanuel Adebayor scored a pre-season goal for the Gunners and decided to show his loyalty to the club by kissing the badge in front of the Arsenal supporters. Fast forward to 12th September 2009, when Adebayor decided to taunt Arsenal supporters by celebrating a goal he scored for Manchester City right in front of them.

What then of Cesc's celebration? Is his kiss of the Arsenal badge the kiss of death for his career at the club? Or to put it another way, like Judas, has he betrayed them with a kiss? Unlike Adebayor, Fabregas is loved by the supporters of Arsenal football club, and so if he decides to leave at the end of the season it will surely be on good terms. After all, he has been at Arsenal for seven seasons, which is almost as long a service as recent legends Viera and Henry, the latter of which was a witness of Cesc's demolition of Blackburn and received generous applause from the Emirates crowd prior to the game.

However, unlike Thierry Henry and Patrick Viera, Cesc Fabregas has yet to lead Arsenal to a piece of prime silverware. The fans will feel that he still owes them some trophies, and so they must remain in hope that the latest Gunner to kiss the badge is not planning on kissing the club good-bye any time soon.

However, should he pack his bags next summer he will still be remembered fondly by Arsenal fans as a wonderful playmaker, whose commitment to the club on the field was rarely if ever in question. But he will also be remembered as someone who failed to bring the club the glory it so desperately craves. Can he live with that? Perhaps he won't have to if he continues to play like he did on Sunday, because in that kind of form Arsenal will surely be walking away with a trophy or two come next May.

Too Many Kiss-related Puns?

Cesc Fabregas produced a masterclass in midfield play against Blackburn last Sunday. Having assisted Arsenal's first three goals he decided to cut out the middle man and simply put the ball in the back of the net himself.

The ensuing celebration was notable for one main reason: it contained the ever popular badge kissing from a player who's been linked with a transfer to pastures greener, in this case, Barcelona.

The more cynical Arsenal fans might have cast their minds back to the beginning of last season, when Emmanuel Adebayor scored a pre-season goal for the Gunners and decided to show his loyalty to the club by kissing the badge in front of the Arsenal supporters. Fast forward to 12th September 2009, when Adebayor decided to taunt Arsenal supporters by celebrating a goal he scored for Manchester City right in front of them.

What then of Cesc's celebration? Is his kiss of the Arsenal badge the kiss of death for his career at the club? Or to put it another way, like Judas, has he betrayed them with a kiss? Unlike Adebayor, Fabregas is loved by the supporters of Arsenal football club, and so if he decides to leave at the end of the season it will surely be on good terms. After all, he has been at Arsenal for seven seasons, which is almost as long a service as recent legends Viera and Henry, the latter of which was a witness of Cesc's demolition of Blackburn and received generous applause from the Emirates crowd prior to the game.

However, unlike Thierry Henry and Patrick Viera, Cesc Fabregas has yet to lead Arsenal to a piece of prime silverware. The fans will feel that he still owes them some trophies, and so they must remain in hope that the latest Gunner to kiss the badge is not planning on kissing the club good-bye any time soon.

However, should he pack his bags next summer he will still be remembered fondly by Arsenal fans as a wonderful playmaker, whose commitment to the club on the field was rarely if ever in question. But he will also be remembered as someone who failed to bring the club the glory it so desperately craves. Can he live with that? Perhaps he won't have to if he continues to play like he did on Sunday, because in that kind of form Arsenal will surely be walking away with a trophy or two come next May.

Monday, October 5, 2009

And It Showed...

I got my first proper look at Barcelona on Saturday, catching all of the second half of their game against Almeria. It was a rather unremarkable game but for one stand out feature:

Xavi and Iniesta were man-marked for the entire game, and it showed.

I don't know what the passing statistics were, but I doubt either of them have made fewer passes in a game over the past couple of seasons. They were basically irrelevant. Both of them!

Of course there are other factors to consider before one thinks that these two maestros can simply be man-marked out of a game. First of all, Iniesta still isn't match sharp. His fitness and touch aren't yet what they should be, and so when they are it will be a much tougher prospect to mark him out of a game. Secondly, Messi was going through the motions, content to win the game without really breaking a sweat. A focused Messi would have created space for the midfield duo by dribbling past players and causing general mayhem. Thirdly, Busquets did not play a clever game. He was the free man, yet he used the ball quite carelessly and was reluctant to try anything incisive. As soon as Toure came on, the midfield area was broken up by his sheer presence and directness, and more space was created.

Still, Almeria's tactics raise some interesting discussion points, and no doubt some of Europe's more illustrious clubs were paying attention to what they were up to. "I expect that many teams will copy our tactics here", said Almeria manager Hugo Sanchez. He may just be right.

No doubt also that Pep is well aware of this, and already coming up with a counter-plan. Shift Iniesta out wide as a nominal left winger? Bring Messi into the centre a la Champions League Final '09? Go high up to Ibra and have Xavi and Iniesta pushed further forward to pick up the scraps? Play the free man (Busquets/Toure/Keita) higher up the pitch, since no defensive midfielder is required?

Did you see the game? Any thoughts?

Sunday, September 27, 2009

Perfect Weight

After some mild sleuthing I find that Valeron assist mentioned in a comments section recently. Beautiful. Notice how the striker didn't need to touch the ball until he had to take it around the 'keeper, such was the perfect weight of the pass.

After some mild sleuthing, I found that Valeron pass mentioned in the comments recently. It was against Espanyol a week ago, and it is indeed quite peachy.
After some mild sleuthing, I found that Valeron pass mentioned in the comments recently. It was against Espanyol a week ago, and it is indeed quite peachy.

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

React Quotes

* So yeah. That Manchester derby was pretty crap, eh? I knew it wouldn't be worth watc [gets word in ear about it being a 4-3 thriller] So as I was saying, the derby was clearly the game to watch this weekend, and only a fool would have said otherwise. I must confess, I didn't see it, but by most people's reckoning -- not least Sir Alex's, who is always unbiased in his post-match analysis -- United were worthy winners, and could have been so by a considerably more convincing margin. As it happened they only won the game because of a dubiously late goal that makes you hate United that little bit more.

* City are defensively brittle. In the two games I've seen them in this season -- against Blackburn and Arsenal -- they conceded numerous chances, and were frankly lucky winners in both. It seems a similar story unfolded at Old Trafford, without the lucky winners part. Is Toure and Lescott really a top 4 centre-half partnership? Not likely. Consider Lescott. His signature season came in 07/08, but if I'm not mistaken he played at left-back for most of it, and even then it was his goal scoring exploits and not his solid defensive play that earned him the plaudits. Last season he was at centre-half, but he was always playing second fiddle to Phil Jagielka. In short, we don't really know how good Julien Lescott actually is as a defender, but one suspects that he's not £20m+ good. Less money could probably have been spent on a better player, like that Dunne chap at Aston villa for instance. And then there's Kolo Toure. Capable of splended defending every now and then, but there is question marks over his consistency, and that pace which got him out of many a hole seems to be fading away. It is telling that Wenger was prepared to let Toure go ahead of Gallas, despite him being a number of years younger. I'm not quite sure what Hughes was thinking when he signed these two defenders for a combined total of £38m [?], but on the evidence thus far it has been money poorly spent, and money which could end up costing a lot more as the season progresses.

* Four goals and four assists. I knew Ibrahimovic would be a complete flop. I actually have yet to see a full Barcelona game so I'm unable to give an in-depth report on the matter at hand, but the signs look good so far. Of course few doubt Ibra's capabilities when it comes to shining against the lesser teams, so perhaps critics have yet to be silenced. Still, it would be churlish to take anything away from his contribution so far. It is important to note also that his presence hasn't hampered Messi in any way either, with the little Argentine continuing from where he left off last season, and arguably outdoing himself, having scored 5 in 4. It remains to be seen how Henry reacts to his new colleague, or simply to the new season with all of its demands. Being in his thirties and having just won the treble may lessen the hunger and desire that characterised him last season.

* Given the way Arsenal fans and various media outlets talked about vermaelen before he played a game for the Gunners you'd have sworn he was a certified midget who stepped out onto the pitch wearing platforms just so attackers wouldn't be able to run over his head. Given the way he's being talked about now, you'd swear he was Franz Beckenbaur II. There's no denying that he's been good, but in the words of Steve G, "calm down, calm down". The Belgian has plenty to do before he's proved to be an astute signing.

* Ever since I saw Benayoun tear Ireland a new one a few years ago I've been a closet fan. In his darkest hours at Liverpool I did question my secret allegiance, but given his performances at the end of last season and the beginning of this one, it seems it is becoming perfectly acceptable for his closet fans to come out. He reminds me a lot of Alex Hleb, another of my favourites. He has the increasingly rare ability to go by players, and he sees things that not many see. His presence in the starting 11 will help Liverpool to no end as they seek to eliminate those 0-0 draws against defensively minded teams from their results sheet this season. His big game influence remains a question mark, but this could be the season when Benayoun finally gets his name mentioned alongside Torres and Gerrard.

Friday, September 18, 2009

Around the World...or just England and Spain

*Wayne Rooney needed to fill Ronaldo's shoes when the winger sailed away towards pastures greener. His goals were fulfilling most of the task, but something still felt missing. I didn't know what it was, until Rooney slammed his boot on the ground after being substituted. The legacy of CR7 lives on. Next stop - substituting yourself, because when you've got an ego on a par with Ronaldo, the only person allowed to substitute you is, well, you.

*3-2, 3-0, 5-2. And still they aren't firing on all cylinders. If Madrid ever do they will be a fearsome proposition. If not, they'll be good entertainment nonetheless.

*How about that Guit fella? A poaching striker turned mercurial playmaker if ever there was one. His pass for Ronaldo's goal against Espanyol and his chip over the (awful) Zurich keeper are in the top 5 moments of the season so far.

*Iniesta is back from injury. Yay!

*The game to watch this weekend - Barcelona against Atletico Madrid. There was 14 goals over the two league games last season. It promises to be nothing but fun.

*Game that will not be what people hope it will be - The Manchester Derby. This is no clash between title contenders. City will be beaten, and not in a way that makes you think they're still in with a shout for the title. The only thing that will make this game interesting is Tevez featuring.

*5 of Arsenal's 7 games have been away from home so far this season. Expect Wigan to feel the brunt of this homesickness.

*It's finally happened. The Champions League group matches hold little appeal to me. Liverpool v Lyon is about the only game I'll watch with interest, only because this Lyon team looks pretty darn good on paper.

Saturday, September 12, 2009

City-Arsenal

A few thoughts on the Man City-Arsenal match:

  • Man City weren't particularly good. Here's a remarkable statistic that basically sums up how they played. Their most creative player, Ireland, hit 12 -- 12[!] -- passes today, 9 of which were complete, and only 1 of which was inside the Arsenal half. Giving credit to this City performance is like giving credit to person who earns money by sitting in an airport and stealing any bags that get left unattended. Such a person might have the odd lucrative day, but it's a parasitic lifestyle and worthy of little genuine praise. City did what they did very well. Their counter-attacks were quick and direct. But for me, something about the win felt so dirty. It was similar to Man Utd's win over Arsenal two weeks ago, with the only major difference being that City scored those chances you get when the other team is chasing the game, thus making the scoreline extremely flattering. Next week they play their city rivals. Next week they will surely be brought back down to earth.

  • Shay Given once again came to the rescue. It is hardly an overraction to say that if the two goalkeepers swapped sides before the game, Arsenal would have run out comfortable winners.

  • Don't believe those who blast Arsenal's "tippy-tappy" approach to football. I don't hear anybody complain when Barcelona or Spain do it, and rightly so, since they are the best club side and international side respectively. Keeping the ball in football is never a bad thing to do. The object of football is to work the ball into a scoring position, and then score. The Bolton way of doing this is a hoof up the pitch; the Arsenal way is to pass it until a scoring opportunity presents itself. Arsenal's problem today wasn't "tippy-tappy" football. Their problem wasn't pulling the trigger when opportunities came their way, for they had over 20 shots on goal, many of which were decent efforts. Their problem was actually that they weren't tippy-tappy enough. They lacked the control and discipline of a Barcelona or a Spain. When they equalised they became careless, turning the game into a playground match. The adrenaline of youth kicked in, and the shape of the team was lost. More control and a less gung-ho approach would most likely have resulted in an Arsenal victory.

  • Apart from one insane dribble, Adebayor posed little threat to the Arsenal rearguard. He was still the same half-hearted creature that stumbled around the Emirates, and even though he has scored in all of City's games thus far, he is not missed in North London. As for his celebration, it's probably vindication for Mr Wenger, who now knows beyond doubt that he made the right decision to sell such a character-less mercenary.

  • If Rosicky can stay fit, Arsenal will be all the better for it. His goal today was a smart finish, and some of his link-up play first rate. It should not go unnoted that Arsenal's collapse in 2007 began in January of that year, which is (I think) when Rosicky was ruled out for what turned out to be 18 months. Hardly a coincidence.

  • Arsenal have issues, but not ones that are easily definable. For example, they shipped four goals today, but one can hardly say that the back four were dodgey. Central defense looks better than it has done in a few years, and it is a rare day when Sagna and/or Clichy are given the run-around. I can't help but feel that the issues reside with the midfield trio of Song, Denilson and Fabregas, yet these players have been largely applauded in the opening weeks of the season. For me, in the murky world of tippy-tappy football, it all rests on the midfield. Something is not right with that trio in my opinion. What I think needs to happen is that Denilson needs to get dropped, Fabregas needs to drop deeper, and Rosicky needs to come in and assume Fabregas's current role as midfield floater. This isn't to pin all of Arsenal's woes on Denilson, as if he is everything that is wrong with the Gunners. He isn't. But a trio of Song, Fabregas and Rosicky is better than a trio of Song, Denilson and Fabregas. Not only because Rosicky is better than Denilson, but because Fabregas is better utilised further back the pitch.

  • That's two losses back to back for Arsenal. Not the end of the world, but the pressure is on for the next game against Wigan. A poor result in that fixture could see all of that early season optimism flow out of the squad, and things could begin to get ugly as they did 12 months ago.

  • Wayne Bridge is really, really fast. Especially for a white guy. i wonder how high he can jump...

  • Man City are not title contenders. But they are a genuine threat to the Big 4. This alone makes the season of 09/10 worth following.

Monday, September 7, 2009

Broad Strokes

If it wasn't for Spain and an appetite for football that leaves me no choice but to watch the likes of the Confederations Cup, the upcoming World Cup would hold little appeal. When a team like Ireland can go unbeaten in the qualifiers -- a team that decides the best way to beat Cyprus is to concede possession to them and instead lump balls up to Robbie Keane on a wing and a prayer -- you know something is amiss.

To paint with broad strokes, here is my assessment of the major nations in world football:

Argentina - Pathetic. Essentially a one man team, but that one man isn't built to be built around. Messi is phenomenal, but he is no Zidane, in the sense of everything being able to go through him. Players like Zidane, Iniesta, Riquelme are the ones who can make your team dominate the play. Messi is the one who can turn that dominance into goals. Argentina have short-circuited the system by parting ways with Riquelme, and so coupled with their defensive frailties they are neither a joy to watch nor an effective unit. Should they make the World Cup, expect that to be the most they do unless something changes radically in the next nine months.

France - A joke. How Domenech is still the coach is one of the great mysteries of the universe. A talented group of players, but while Monsieur Domenech remains in charge this talented group will win approximately nothing. One must wonder what Raymond has threatened to do should he be sacked. Blow up the Eiffel Tower? Expose his secret affair with the Prime Minister? Ensure that Steve McLaren is his replacement? The mind boggles.

Italy - Just. So. Boring. Watching Italy play is like watching Ireland play, except perhaps even more depressing since you expect so much more. There must be a good national team in there somewhere, but Lippi refuses to find it, and instead resorts to what he knows. When Rossi is your great hope, things are not as they should be.

Germany - The Man City of international football. A pretty decent team, but tactically inept and too flakey to be considered a major force. The saying "Never right off the Germans" has lost much of its credibility. Back in the day, the Germans used to win things if people dared right them off. Now the Germans get to semi-finals, even finals, but then get found out by someone better. They're a weirdly fun team, but not to be taken too seriously, which for something German is a remarkable achievement.

Brazil - Italy v Brazil used to be the pinnacle of football. The tactical astuteness of the Italians against the liberated flair of the Brazilians. These days it's more a poor Italy against an imitation of Italy, with Brazil being that imitation. Like most teams, Brazil lack quality in the middle of midfield. Gilberto Silva still gets games, which tells you all you need to know. Dunga is trying to remedy what happened in 2006, when the big 4 of Ronaldinho, Ronaldo, Adriano and Kaka disappointed the world so much that people were actually happy to see France -- France! -- beat them. Brazil have shied away from such a cavalier approach and adopted pragmatism with a tinge of flair. The results have come their way, but nobody is enjoying it. And at the business end of things, Brazil simply aren't solid enough to pull this game plan off when it comes to a World Cup.

Portugal - Similar to Argentina. They probably won't make the World Cup, so they're not even worth talking about.

Holland - Do any of their players play for top sides? Most of them have been sold by Madrid, deemed not good enough to help the Spanish side win things. It's interesting that (arguably) the top 4 clubs sides -- Man Utd, Barcelona, Chelsea and Liverpool -- only have one Dutch player between them all who gets a regular starting place, and that player is Dirk Kuyt. I rest my case.

So that leaves Spain and England, the two teams with the best chance of World Cup glory in my opinion. Since there is something in my that finds the English football team repulsive, it is Spain alone who carry the flag for international football. They are the best team by a country mile, and unless one of the above magically gets their act together, it is hard to see the trophy ending up anywhere but Spain.