In case you’re wondering what to watch in the Champions League tonight, here is a quick guide to help you sort the wheat from the chaff.
Group A
Look no further than this group for the most intriguing match of the final round. It’s quite simple really - Bayern Munich must win to go through. If they don’t, Juve go through. The game is being played in Turin so you would fancy the home club to do enough, but unlike some around these parts, I’m not about to break football’s oldest commandment and write off the Germans. Expect a tense game, where at least one managers job hinges entirely on the result.
Group B
Herein lies the battle for top spot. Wolfsburg need to not only beat Manchester United, but to beat them either 1-0, 2-1, or by two goals. A 3-2 victory, for example, won’t be good enough, because it will give United a better head-to-head record. It is within Man Utd’s interests to finish top, because should they not, then as things stand they will have to face one of Bordeaux, Real Madrid, Fiorentina, Barelona or Sevilla - that’s almost a 50-50 chance of drawing one of Spain’s big two. However, the other three teams on that list would probably prove to be quite favourable, so finishing second might just be a blessing in disguise should the draw be kind to United, which it invariably is. That said, the list of second place teams is made up almost entirely of outfits not unlike Fiorentina, Sevilla and Bordeaux, so after some back and forth, here is the conclusion: forget about what may happen in the draw for the last 16 - the best thing is the finish top and avoid the large possibility of facing one of Spain’s big two. Given the defensive crisis at Man Utd currently, this might actually be a game worth watching if you can’t source the one above.
Group C
Things are much more complicated here. Real Madrid need to beat Marseille away from home to guarantee top spot. If they draw and Milan don’t win, then they will also finish first. However, if they draw and Milan win then the Italians’ better head-to-head record will see them snatch first prize.
But -- and this is a pretty big but -- if Marseille not only beat Madrid, but beat them 3-0 (or 4-0, or 5-1 etc), then the French club go through in second place instead of the Spaniards, provided Milan also win (who will thus finish top). If Milan don’t win and Marseille triumph 3-0, then it is first place to Marseille and second place to Madrid.
The only way Milan can go out is if they fail to beat Zurich away from home and if Marseille beat Madrid by any score at all. If Milan lose and Marseille draw, the Italians still go through thanks to a superior record against the French.
Given that Milan lost to Zurich at home, and Madrid lost to a team in the Second Division B 4-0, anything is possible. Marseille--Madrid might just be worth watching if the French manage to get an early goal or two.
Group D
The big question from this group is can Atletico Madrid make the Europa League? That tells you just about everything you need to know. Avoid group D like the plague.
In sum, there are actually some good matches to be found in the final set of group games. Who’d have thought? My order of preference would be Juve v Bayern, Marseille v Madrid, and Wolfsburg v Manchester United.
Showing posts with label champions league. Show all posts
Showing posts with label champions league. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
The Non-Prediction Prediction
Before I move on to tonight's game, a word on last night. Much is being made of United's performance, but one has to take into account the effect of the two goals that should never have been. They ended the game as a contest, and left United playing a team with no belief, heart, or will to even go on. Needless to say, that is an easy team to look good against. Perhaps I'm being churlish, but surely the game must be put into context, with the context being that United were handed two goals. Don't get me wrong - they fully deserve to be in the final, but I don't think we can afford to read into this game too much.
As for tonight, well, it can't be any more disappointing than last night's effort. Given it was only interesting for 7 minutes that's not saying much, but still, I expect this one to go the distance. That said, what kind of game can we expect? Something similar to the first leg? In some ways yes, but in other ways, no, and in yet more ways I don't actually know.
One thing I can guarantee is that Barcelona will see more of the ball than Chelsea. Maybe not as much as in the Nou Camp, but not far off. They really do only know how to play one way, and that is to pass the ball ad infinitum. My query is whether Stamford Bridge will help or hinder them. It is approximately a tenth of the size of the Nou Camp, which has to make a difference one way or another. My gut feeling is that the smaller pitch will help Barcelona (and Chelsea for that matter). At the Nou Camp is is easy for Barcelona to stroke the ball around without getting near the opposition's goal. However, given a smaller pitch you simply can't help but get closer to the opposition's goal. A tighter pitch will require more accuracy, but if anyone can rise to the challenge it's this Barcelona team.
Another factor in Barcelona's favour is the win against Madrid. That game must have been playing on their minds in the first leg, and so with La Liga all but wrapped up Barcelona minds will be 100% focused on the job at hand. Confidence is huge in sport, and while Chelsea are a different animal than Madrid, Barcelona will be confident of playing the way they have done for most of the season and winning.
The deployment of Messi could also change the dynamic of this game. On Saturday he played as a deep lying centre-forward, and he was magnificent. I thought this might happen in the first leg against Chelsea (in fact I may even have written as much), and I think it should happen tonight. Eto'o needs to be kept out on the wing where he can be as irrelevant as possible, and leave Messi to run at Alex and Terry. But even if this doesn't happen, Messi can only improve from a week ago, right? In fact you could say that about a few key Barcelona players. Iniesta was good last week, but he can be better, more incisive. I don't rate Eto'o very highly, but he is still better than what he showed in the first leg.
The bottom line is that Barcelona were not at their best last week and yet they still completely dominated possession and had three great chances to score. I'm almost certain they will be better at the Bridge, which leaves me believing there will beblood goals tonight.
Unfortunately, while I can predict what Barcelona are going to do with a degree of success, I have no clue how Chelsea are going to line up. Will they play the same 11? Will Anelka start? Will they attempt to complete three passes in a row? Anything I write about Chelsea will be pure conjecture, but since they need to score at least one goal it is surely not unreasonable to suggest that they may be a bit more adventurous on their home turf, especially with Barcelona's defensive woes. I haven't seen much of Caceres, but the fact that he is roughly Barcelona's fifth choice central defender doesn't exactly inspire confidence given who is in front of him. Drogba has the ability to exploit weakness like no other striker, and so there are goals for the taking should Chelsea decide they actually want to win this game.
The smaller pitch will also help Chelsea, since they will be able to support Drogba much more quickly. I don't expect Lampard to be much more influential than he was in terms of keeping the ball, but I do expect him to get forward more and have a few speculative efforts that may or may not deflect goalwards. His freekicks and corners will also be of vital importance. Madrid scored two headed goals on Saturday, and so there is no reason why Chelsea can't do the same, provided they attack with enough impetus to actually get freekicks and corners.
This is the biggest match either of these teams have left. For Chelsea it is a chance for a second bite at the cherry. A chance to atone for that slip. For Barcelona it is the chance to keep the treble alive, and a chance to show that they can actually beat an English team or two. The pressure on both sets of players will be immense, and there can be no ignoring the effect of it. A 6-2 win at the Bernabeu indicates that Barcelona can handle it. Chelsea's recent success indicates that they can handle it. Honestly, this game is too hard to call, so I won't even try. I desperatly want Barcelona to win, but their defensive liability means they will probably have to do so the hard way. Whatever the case this will be an intriguing game, and one I can't wait to see (famous last words?).
As for tonight, well, it can't be any more disappointing than last night's effort. Given it was only interesting for 7 minutes that's not saying much, but still, I expect this one to go the distance. That said, what kind of game can we expect? Something similar to the first leg? In some ways yes, but in other ways, no, and in yet more ways I don't actually know.
One thing I can guarantee is that Barcelona will see more of the ball than Chelsea. Maybe not as much as in the Nou Camp, but not far off. They really do only know how to play one way, and that is to pass the ball ad infinitum. My query is whether Stamford Bridge will help or hinder them. It is approximately a tenth of the size of the Nou Camp, which has to make a difference one way or another. My gut feeling is that the smaller pitch will help Barcelona (and Chelsea for that matter). At the Nou Camp is is easy for Barcelona to stroke the ball around without getting near the opposition's goal. However, given a smaller pitch you simply can't help but get closer to the opposition's goal. A tighter pitch will require more accuracy, but if anyone can rise to the challenge it's this Barcelona team.
Another factor in Barcelona's favour is the win against Madrid. That game must have been playing on their minds in the first leg, and so with La Liga all but wrapped up Barcelona minds will be 100% focused on the job at hand. Confidence is huge in sport, and while Chelsea are a different animal than Madrid, Barcelona will be confident of playing the way they have done for most of the season and winning.
The deployment of Messi could also change the dynamic of this game. On Saturday he played as a deep lying centre-forward, and he was magnificent. I thought this might happen in the first leg against Chelsea (in fact I may even have written as much), and I think it should happen tonight. Eto'o needs to be kept out on the wing where he can be as irrelevant as possible, and leave Messi to run at Alex and Terry. But even if this doesn't happen, Messi can only improve from a week ago, right? In fact you could say that about a few key Barcelona players. Iniesta was good last week, but he can be better, more incisive. I don't rate Eto'o very highly, but he is still better than what he showed in the first leg.
The bottom line is that Barcelona were not at their best last week and yet they still completely dominated possession and had three great chances to score. I'm almost certain they will be better at the Bridge, which leaves me believing there will be
Unfortunately, while I can predict what Barcelona are going to do with a degree of success, I have no clue how Chelsea are going to line up. Will they play the same 11? Will Anelka start? Will they attempt to complete three passes in a row? Anything I write about Chelsea will be pure conjecture, but since they need to score at least one goal it is surely not unreasonable to suggest that they may be a bit more adventurous on their home turf, especially with Barcelona's defensive woes. I haven't seen much of Caceres, but the fact that he is roughly Barcelona's fifth choice central defender doesn't exactly inspire confidence given who is in front of him. Drogba has the ability to exploit weakness like no other striker, and so there are goals for the taking should Chelsea decide they actually want to win this game.
The smaller pitch will also help Chelsea, since they will be able to support Drogba much more quickly. I don't expect Lampard to be much more influential than he was in terms of keeping the ball, but I do expect him to get forward more and have a few speculative efforts that may or may not deflect goalwards. His freekicks and corners will also be of vital importance. Madrid scored two headed goals on Saturday, and so there is no reason why Chelsea can't do the same, provided they attack with enough impetus to actually get freekicks and corners.
This is the biggest match either of these teams have left. For Chelsea it is a chance for a second bite at the cherry. A chance to atone for that slip. For Barcelona it is the chance to keep the treble alive, and a chance to show that they can actually beat an English team or two. The pressure on both sets of players will be immense, and there can be no ignoring the effect of it. A 6-2 win at the Bernabeu indicates that Barcelona can handle it. Chelsea's recent success indicates that they can handle it. Honestly, this game is too hard to call, so I won't even try. I desperatly want Barcelona to win, but their defensive liability means they will probably have to do so the hard way. Whatever the case this will be an intriguing game, and one I can't wait to see (famous last words?).
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
No way. Just No Way.
Given that the score is only one nil this may seem slightly odd, but my feeling about tonight's game is that it is a tad irrelevant. I honestly cannot see Arsenal coming away with a sufficient win. United may have only scored one last week, but all the signs point to the fact that they are more than capable of adding to that at the Emirates. People may point to Arsenal beating them back in November as hope for the Gunners, but analysis of that game is hardly titled in Arsenal's favour. I can recall United having several gilt-edged chances, which on another day would have seen them bag about three goals. All of this leads me to believe that United will score at least one goal chez Gunners, meaning Arsenal will need to score at least three. No way. Just no way.
Despite my pessimistic outlook, Wenger still has to give his team the best possible chance of proving me -- and most others -- wrong. There is an Arsenal team that will fail miserably, and an Arsenal team that will run United close. The former includes Diaby on the left and Cesc in the supporting striker role. The latter looks like this:
...............................................Almunia......................................................
Sagna....................Toure...................Djourou.................................Gibbs
Walcott...............Fabregas..............Song........................................Nasri
............................van Persie......................................................................
.........................................................Adebayor...........................................
I don't claim that to be a flawless team. I have little time for Adebayor, I think Walcott is green and indisciplined, and the defense doesn't exactly scream "Impregnable". Still, in my mind it's Arsenal's best chance of upsetting the odds. Should United decide not to turn up for one reason or another then this is a team that can make them pay. However, in the semi-final of a Champions League I don't expect any mistakes from the Red Devils.
This is a cliche, and to say that it's a cliche for a reason is a cliche, and to say that saying it is a cliche for a reason is a cliche, but the first goal is just so important it's hard to overstate it. The simple fact is that if Arsenal get it then the tie is all square, but if United get it then Arsenal need three unanswered goals. What a difference a goal makes, eh? Because of this I find it almost impossible to see anything but a Man Utd triumph. It may be close, it may be decided by a late goal, but one way or another it's got to be United for me.
Despite my pessimistic outlook, Wenger still has to give his team the best possible chance of proving me -- and most others -- wrong. There is an Arsenal team that will fail miserably, and an Arsenal team that will run United close. The former includes Diaby on the left and Cesc in the supporting striker role. The latter looks like this:
...............................................Almunia......................................................
Sagna....................Toure...................Djourou.................................Gibbs
Walcott...............Fabregas..............Song........................................Nasri
............................van Persie......................................................................
.........................................................Adebayor...........................................
I don't claim that to be a flawless team. I have little time for Adebayor, I think Walcott is green and indisciplined, and the defense doesn't exactly scream "Impregnable". Still, in my mind it's Arsenal's best chance of upsetting the odds. Should United decide not to turn up for one reason or another then this is a team that can make them pay. However, in the semi-final of a Champions League I don't expect any mistakes from the Red Devils.
This is a cliche, and to say that it's a cliche for a reason is a cliche, and to say that saying it is a cliche for a reason is a cliche, but the first goal is just so important it's hard to overstate it. The simple fact is that if Arsenal get it then the tie is all square, but if United get it then Arsenal need three unanswered goals. What a difference a goal makes, eh? Because of this I find it almost impossible to see anything but a Man Utd triumph. It may be close, it may be decided by a late goal, but one way or another it's got to be United for me.
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Great Expectations
Clearly I thought a lot about this game before it happened, and I've thought a lot about it after. One of the questions to be asked is "What did you expect of Barcelona?" A lot of people are saying they didn't live up to the hype etc etc. Now of course I can understand an element of disappointment at the game in general, but did people honestly expect Barca to tear Chelsea a new one? I predicted 3-3, but that was based on the silly assumption that Chelsea would try and leave their own half. Had I known they would line up as they did, then I wouldn't have expected the game to be much different than it was, and the performance Barcelona delivered would have been quite satisfactory.
Playing against 11 disciplined defenders is not easy. Having nearly 70% possession is not easy. Creating chances when faced with a blanket defense is not easy. Reducing your opponents to a chance created by your own mistake and a header from a free-kick is not easy. To have such control over a game requires skill, knowledge, discipline and courage. One of the criticisms leveled at Barcelona after last night is that their passing was overelaborate or not incisive enough. To a certain extent this is true, but do you honestly expect them to hit through balls every time they play a pass? Opening a team playing like Chelsea did demands patience. You're not going to get many opportunities to slip in a cutting pass, and so job number one is to keep the ball, and sooner or later an opening will present itself. Had Barcelona taken one of the three of four openings they got then we would be hearing a different tune. Alas they didn't, but that doesn't now mean they are overrated.
Making sweeping statements about Barcelona based on last night's game is silly. Their failure to score was not because they were shown to be toothless against a mighty English defense. They had three exceptionally good chances, but didn't convert them. Yes there were disappointments. Messi was on the outskirts of the game for almost all of the second half. Actually come to think of it, that may be the only disappointment. What I expected from others was more of less delivered. Xavi dictated the midfield, Iniesta was always probing, though it never quite came off. Toure did his job wonderfully. Eto'o's finishing let him down.
Personally, I don't believe in the Holy Trinity of Messi, Henry, and Eto'o. I think the latter two aren't imaginative enough. It's not a case of 'stop Messi and you still have the other two to deal with'. It's a case of 'stop Messi and the other two become much less threatening'.
This tie is still in the balance of course. On the evidence of last night Barcelona are capable of scoring a goal at the Bridge. Messi can't possibly be any more anonymous, and Chelsea can't possibly be any more negative. The Barcelona defense will surely be more tested -- and more brittle what with last night's losses -- but this should lead to a more open game. One thing is sure however: Hiddink's comments before the game won't be worth a damn.
Playing against 11 disciplined defenders is not easy. Having nearly 70% possession is not easy. Creating chances when faced with a blanket defense is not easy. Reducing your opponents to a chance created by your own mistake and a header from a free-kick is not easy. To have such control over a game requires skill, knowledge, discipline and courage. One of the criticisms leveled at Barcelona after last night is that their passing was overelaborate or not incisive enough. To a certain extent this is true, but do you honestly expect them to hit through balls every time they play a pass? Opening a team playing like Chelsea did demands patience. You're not going to get many opportunities to slip in a cutting pass, and so job number one is to keep the ball, and sooner or later an opening will present itself. Had Barcelona taken one of the three of four openings they got then we would be hearing a different tune. Alas they didn't, but that doesn't now mean they are overrated.
Making sweeping statements about Barcelona based on last night's game is silly. Their failure to score was not because they were shown to be toothless against a mighty English defense. They had three exceptionally good chances, but didn't convert them. Yes there were disappointments. Messi was on the outskirts of the game for almost all of the second half. Actually come to think of it, that may be the only disappointment. What I expected from others was more of less delivered. Xavi dictated the midfield, Iniesta was always probing, though it never quite came off. Toure did his job wonderfully. Eto'o's finishing let him down.
Personally, I don't believe in the Holy Trinity of Messi, Henry, and Eto'o. I think the latter two aren't imaginative enough. It's not a case of 'stop Messi and you still have the other two to deal with'. It's a case of 'stop Messi and the other two become much less threatening'.
This tie is still in the balance of course. On the evidence of last night Barcelona are capable of scoring a goal at the Bridge. Messi can't possibly be any more anonymous, and Chelsea can't possibly be any more negative. The Barcelona defense will surely be more tested -- and more brittle what with last night's losses -- but this should lead to a more open game. One thing is sure however: Hiddink's comments before the game won't be worth a damn.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Barcelona/Chelsea pt 4
Here is a rundown of the players likely to be playing tonight, and the influence they may have on the game.
Valdes: He is one of those goalkeepers who is called a "good shot-stopper", which tells you all you need to know. Dodgy on crosses, untrustworthy with the ball at his feet, and undoubtedly Barcelona's weakest link. Could end up costing them a regretful away goal or two.
Alves: I like my previous description so I'm going to stick with it - a defender who enters his own half reluctantly. I honestly don't know if Alves is a good defender, but he is excellent going forward. The finest crosser of a ball I've seen since Beckham, his is a threat that is difficult to stifle. Bosingwa may stick to Messi like glue, but that will only mean more room for Alves to scythe through Chelsea territory.
Marquez: An excellent distributor of the ball and a clean tackler, but severely lacking in pace. There was a foot race between him and Toni in the last round and I swear it looked like they were both going backwards. If Drogba, or even Malouda, can get a run at him then don't be surprised to see them breeze by him as if he wasn't there.
Pique: Reminds me a bit of Senderos. That's not a good thing, especially when Drogba is around.
Abidal: If ever a defender relied on his pace alone, it's Eric Abidal. He tends to stay back much more than he used to which works in Barcelona's favour for two reasons: 1. He was never much good going forward, and 2. Barcelona need his pace at the back.
Toure: Your standard holding player really, whose height is important when it comes to defending set pieces. His role in tonight's game may be more as creator however, because when it comes to Barcelona players being singled out by Chelsea for special attention, I expect Toure to be somewhere near the bottom of the list.
Xavi: If man-marked by Essien I expect him to be peripheral for much of the game. If not, then Chelsea will not be seeing much of the ball, whereas Alves and Messi will. How well Xavi plays is generally a good indication of how well Barcelona play. I will be extremely interested to see how Chelsea handle him.
Iniesta: May well be the difference maker tonight. With all the attention focused on stopping Messi, Eto'o and Henry, I expect Iniesta to have an influential game, and he is more than capable of producing the goods. If pitted against Essien then perhaps he can be shut down, but marking Iniesta is a whole different proposition to marking Gerrard. It's about time for people to cease from labeling Iniesta "under-rated" and to start labeling him for what he is - one of the best players in the world.
Messi: His decision making still isn't perfect, but almost everything else is. A joy to watch, and will cause the slow Chelsea centre-halves a world of pain when he cuts inside.
Henry: Some people say he is back to his best. I disagree. He has lost much of his speed, which for a player like Henry is crippling. He is of course still a threat, and he works hard for the team, but I expect him to have a quiet game tonight and to be the first to make way.
Eto'o: Unreliable at this level. His finishing is too erratic, and he gives the ball away cheaply far too often. I expect him to let Barcelona down, much like he did this time last season. And also, if he was as good as he thinks he is -- and as good as most people think he is -- why would Barcelona want to sell him? Simple - there are better options out there.
Cech: A great penalty save at the weekend aside, it is no secret that Cech has not been the same man after getting kneed in the head by Hunt. He is the better of the two goalkeepers on display tonight, but that's not exactly saying much. However, I don't think Barcelona play the kind of football that will cause Cech the maximum amount of difficulty. High punts into the box is not Barcelona's style, nor are they particularly threatening from set-pieces, and so Cech may prove to be a valuable asset for Chelsea when it comes to stopping Eto'o's hit and hope piledrivers.
Ivanovic: I haven't seen much of this guy, but two goals against Liverpool from corners suggests he's a threat in that department. Of the two Chelsea full-backs he will certainly have the easier task, although Iniesta does tend to stay on that side of the pitch, meaning Anelka may be forced to do things he isn't particularly good it. Don't be surprised if much of Barca's threat comes down Chelsea's right hand side.
Alex: Good in the air, but against Barcelona that will only count at the other end of the pitch.
Terry: See above. If I were a Chelsea fan I would be worried about the lack of pace at centre-half. Eto'o may not be a lot of things, but he is definitely quick and can get in behind quite easily. Messi will drift in field more often than not, and can even be the front man for Barcelona with Eto'o shifting right. Will Terry and Alex be able to deal with such movement and pace? I have my doubts.
Bosingwa: He says marking Messi is "no problem". I beg to differ. Keeping Messi quiet won't be sufficient for beating Barcelona, but it will be necessary. Bosingwa will need all the help he can get, and then some.
Essien: Perhaps Chelsea's most important player tonight. I don't know what Hiddink is going to do with him, but it is the effectiveness of Essien that will either swing this tie in Chelsea's favour or lead to an onslought of epic proportions at the hands of the mighty Catalans.
Ballack: A big man for the big occasion in the past, this could be Ballack's swansong, or more likely, it could be the night when it all comes crashing down for him. "His legs are gone" as Dunphy would say, and against Barcelona you could do with three or four well-functioning legs, not to mention two. I expect him to give away a lot of fouls and generally look off the pace, but as with most Chelsea players he poses a considerable threat in aerial confrontations.
Lampard: I'm not his biggest fan, but Lamps has been impressive all season...except in most of the big games. A question mark still looms large over his head when it comes to imposing himself on this kind of occasion. His habbit of scoring goals may come in handy, but if Chelsea are not to be overrun in midfield for 90 minutes they need Frank to put his foot on the ball once in a while and keep possession. I'm just not sure he's up to the task on nights like this.
Anelka: I don't like Anelka. I don't think he's much good, and I wouldn't be surprised to see either him or Malouda make way for Deco/Kalou of the grounds of them being a bit rubbish during the game.
Malouda: I don't like Malouda. I don't think he's much good...etc etc.
Drogba: An absolute beast of a player. If you were to swap Drogba for Eto'o I wouldn't think twice about selling all of my possessions and staking the money on a Barcelona win. Should Chelsea see enough of the ball then Drogba could come away with a brace. The Barcelona defense will simply not be able to handle him if they are on the back foot. He is Chelsea's match winner, and if they are going to get a result tonight I have little doubt that Drogba will be at the heart of that triumph.
With all of that said, here is my prediction: 3-3. I can't see anything but goals, goals, goals, and I honestly can't wait for this game.
Valdes: He is one of those goalkeepers who is called a "good shot-stopper", which tells you all you need to know. Dodgy on crosses, untrustworthy with the ball at his feet, and undoubtedly Barcelona's weakest link. Could end up costing them a regretful away goal or two.
Alves: I like my previous description so I'm going to stick with it - a defender who enters his own half reluctantly. I honestly don't know if Alves is a good defender, but he is excellent going forward. The finest crosser of a ball I've seen since Beckham, his is a threat that is difficult to stifle. Bosingwa may stick to Messi like glue, but that will only mean more room for Alves to scythe through Chelsea territory.
Marquez: An excellent distributor of the ball and a clean tackler, but severely lacking in pace. There was a foot race between him and Toni in the last round and I swear it looked like they were both going backwards. If Drogba, or even Malouda, can get a run at him then don't be surprised to see them breeze by him as if he wasn't there.
Pique: Reminds me a bit of Senderos. That's not a good thing, especially when Drogba is around.
Abidal: If ever a defender relied on his pace alone, it's Eric Abidal. He tends to stay back much more than he used to which works in Barcelona's favour for two reasons: 1. He was never much good going forward, and 2. Barcelona need his pace at the back.
Toure: Your standard holding player really, whose height is important when it comes to defending set pieces. His role in tonight's game may be more as creator however, because when it comes to Barcelona players being singled out by Chelsea for special attention, I expect Toure to be somewhere near the bottom of the list.
Xavi: If man-marked by Essien I expect him to be peripheral for much of the game. If not, then Chelsea will not be seeing much of the ball, whereas Alves and Messi will. How well Xavi plays is generally a good indication of how well Barcelona play. I will be extremely interested to see how Chelsea handle him.
Iniesta: May well be the difference maker tonight. With all the attention focused on stopping Messi, Eto'o and Henry, I expect Iniesta to have an influential game, and he is more than capable of producing the goods. If pitted against Essien then perhaps he can be shut down, but marking Iniesta is a whole different proposition to marking Gerrard. It's about time for people to cease from labeling Iniesta "under-rated" and to start labeling him for what he is - one of the best players in the world.
Messi: His decision making still isn't perfect, but almost everything else is. A joy to watch, and will cause the slow Chelsea centre-halves a world of pain when he cuts inside.
Henry: Some people say he is back to his best. I disagree. He has lost much of his speed, which for a player like Henry is crippling. He is of course still a threat, and he works hard for the team, but I expect him to have a quiet game tonight and to be the first to make way.
Eto'o: Unreliable at this level. His finishing is too erratic, and he gives the ball away cheaply far too often. I expect him to let Barcelona down, much like he did this time last season. And also, if he was as good as he thinks he is -- and as good as most people think he is -- why would Barcelona want to sell him? Simple - there are better options out there.
Cech: A great penalty save at the weekend aside, it is no secret that Cech has not been the same man after getting kneed in the head by Hunt. He is the better of the two goalkeepers on display tonight, but that's not exactly saying much. However, I don't think Barcelona play the kind of football that will cause Cech the maximum amount of difficulty. High punts into the box is not Barcelona's style, nor are they particularly threatening from set-pieces, and so Cech may prove to be a valuable asset for Chelsea when it comes to stopping Eto'o's hit and hope piledrivers.
Ivanovic: I haven't seen much of this guy, but two goals against Liverpool from corners suggests he's a threat in that department. Of the two Chelsea full-backs he will certainly have the easier task, although Iniesta does tend to stay on that side of the pitch, meaning Anelka may be forced to do things he isn't particularly good it. Don't be surprised if much of Barca's threat comes down Chelsea's right hand side.
Alex: Good in the air, but against Barcelona that will only count at the other end of the pitch.
Terry: See above. If I were a Chelsea fan I would be worried about the lack of pace at centre-half. Eto'o may not be a lot of things, but he is definitely quick and can get in behind quite easily. Messi will drift in field more often than not, and can even be the front man for Barcelona with Eto'o shifting right. Will Terry and Alex be able to deal with such movement and pace? I have my doubts.
Bosingwa: He says marking Messi is "no problem". I beg to differ. Keeping Messi quiet won't be sufficient for beating Barcelona, but it will be necessary. Bosingwa will need all the help he can get, and then some.
Essien: Perhaps Chelsea's most important player tonight. I don't know what Hiddink is going to do with him, but it is the effectiveness of Essien that will either swing this tie in Chelsea's favour or lead to an onslought of epic proportions at the hands of the mighty Catalans.
Ballack: A big man for the big occasion in the past, this could be Ballack's swansong, or more likely, it could be the night when it all comes crashing down for him. "His legs are gone" as Dunphy would say, and against Barcelona you could do with three or four well-functioning legs, not to mention two. I expect him to give away a lot of fouls and generally look off the pace, but as with most Chelsea players he poses a considerable threat in aerial confrontations.
Lampard: I'm not his biggest fan, but Lamps has been impressive all season...except in most of the big games. A question mark still looms large over his head when it comes to imposing himself on this kind of occasion. His habbit of scoring goals may come in handy, but if Chelsea are not to be overrun in midfield for 90 minutes they need Frank to put his foot on the ball once in a while and keep possession. I'm just not sure he's up to the task on nights like this.
Anelka: I don't like Anelka. I don't think he's much good, and I wouldn't be surprised to see either him or Malouda make way for Deco/Kalou of the grounds of them being a bit rubbish during the game.
Malouda: I don't like Malouda. I don't think he's much good...etc etc.
Drogba: An absolute beast of a player. If you were to swap Drogba for Eto'o I wouldn't think twice about selling all of my possessions and staking the money on a Barcelona win. Should Chelsea see enough of the ball then Drogba could come away with a brace. The Barcelona defense will simply not be able to handle him if they are on the back foot. He is Chelsea's match winner, and if they are going to get a result tonight I have little doubt that Drogba will be at the heart of that triumph.
With all of that said, here is my prediction: 3-3. I can't see anything but goals, goals, goals, and I honestly can't wait for this game.
Friday, April 24, 2009
Barcelona/Chelsea pt 3
The Barcelona attack is generally the headline grabber, but in order to neutralize the threat from the front if will be up to Chelsea to upset the source. This will mean that two important things need to be done: Drogba is going to have to work his socks off up front, constantly applying pressure on the Barcelona centre-halfs. It is these two players who initiate almost every Barcelona attack, and so if they can be got at then the supply to the midfield and forward line will be much more volatile than it usually is. Whether or not just one striker can apply sufficient pressure on two players is debatable, but I think it's safe to say that Hiddink won't be employing two up top so it will be down to Drogba alone to settle the debate.
The other similar thing that needs to be done from a Chelsea point of view is to mark Xavi out of the game - something that has been done already this season to great effect. It is no easy task, but a player like Michael Essien could well be up for the challenge. Barcelona's m.o. is to knock it around at the back until Xavi is in position, and then feed him. To disrupt this operation is to strike at the heart of Barcelona's game. It's not a sufficient condition for beating them, but it is most certainly a necessary one. Marquez may not be a great defender, but he is an excellent distributor of the ball, both short and long. This is generally not mentioned when it comes to talking about Barcelona's defense, but given how much ball possession they enojoy it is arguable that it is more important for a Barca defender to be a good passer than a good tackler or headerer [?] of the ball. Therefore task 1: Stop Marquez (and to a lesser extent, his partner) from doing what they want with the ball. Task 2: Pratically give Xavi a piggy-back ride for 90 minutes.
There are problems implimenting this strategy of course, none more so than the presence of Iniesta on the pitch. I sincerely doubt both Lampard and Ballack's ability to shut him out. Toure and Iniesta together will be able to initiate enough attacks should Xavi be "raped" by Essien, and so there is only so much Chelsea can do with hard work. A player like Iniesta is extremely difficult to mark. He has a rather unique blend of excellent close control, dribbling technique, speed, and vision. Barcelona will depend on him a lot, and Chelsea don't seem to have a say in the matter. Can Iniesta produce on the night? His outstanding form this season suggests he can, and so it will be intriguing to watch.
The other similar thing that needs to be done from a Chelsea point of view is to mark Xavi out of the game - something that has been done already this season to great effect. It is no easy task, but a player like Michael Essien could well be up for the challenge. Barcelona's m.o. is to knock it around at the back until Xavi is in position, and then feed him. To disrupt this operation is to strike at the heart of Barcelona's game. It's not a sufficient condition for beating them, but it is most certainly a necessary one. Marquez may not be a great defender, but he is an excellent distributor of the ball, both short and long. This is generally not mentioned when it comes to talking about Barcelona's defense, but given how much ball possession they enojoy it is arguable that it is more important for a Barca defender to be a good passer than a good tackler or headerer [?] of the ball. Therefore task 1: Stop Marquez (and to a lesser extent, his partner) from doing what they want with the ball. Task 2: Pratically give Xavi a piggy-back ride for 90 minutes.
There are problems implimenting this strategy of course, none more so than the presence of Iniesta on the pitch. I sincerely doubt both Lampard and Ballack's ability to shut him out. Toure and Iniesta together will be able to initiate enough attacks should Xavi be "raped" by Essien, and so there is only so much Chelsea can do with hard work. A player like Iniesta is extremely difficult to mark. He has a rather unique blend of excellent close control, dribbling technique, speed, and vision. Barcelona will depend on him a lot, and Chelsea don't seem to have a say in the matter. Can Iniesta produce on the night? His outstanding form this season suggests he can, and so it will be intriguing to watch.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Barcelona/Chelsea pt 2
The next part of my prolonged pre-match analysis can be summed up in the following well-thought-out bullet points:
- Florent Malouda is still crap
There have been vicious rumours spreading recently regarding Malouda. Some people are actually saying that he has finally gotten his act together. These people are proclaiming that at long lost we are seeing the Malouda of old, and how he is a changed man under Hiddink etc etc. What these people fail to realise is that the Malouda of old wasn't much good.
Football Focus are the masters of this kind of spur of the moment analysis. If you string two good games together then prepare for an interview where you will be asked about the "tough times", but also about the promising future which may include an England call up "provided I just keep my head down and keep doing what I'm doing". The name Darren Bent springs to mind. Harry came in, Bent got a couple of goals and was suddenly a great striker again, but before long he was back to being no better than Mrs Redknapp, which sadly is a fairer reflection of his limited abilities.
I don't envision Florent Malouda's story ending any differently. Like Bent he has never been a good player. We've seen the real Malouda in the Premier League. His latest performances are simply an abberation, so I don't expect them to last, and I certainly don't expect him to be a thorn in Barcelona's side. It's true that he may find some joy given that Alves has the unique characteristic of being a defender who enters his own half reluctantly, but of all the wingers Alves could have faced in the semi-finals surely Malouda is the most impotent.
However, the impotence of Malouda may prove to be of secondary importance to his defensive prowess. I expect Chelsea to do something of a Man Utd at the Nou Camp and sit back, basically playing with two full backs on either flank. Is Malouda disciplined enough to perform this task? Given that Theo Walcott was Arsenal's most dangerous player on Saturday it doesn't seem likely.
It may seem like I'm just saying this given the topic in question, but one of the sure ways to hurt Barcelona is to have a left winger who can run at people and who uses the ball cleverly. The threat of Ribery was negated in the first leg simply because Bayern were a shambles and could hardly touch the ball. In the second leg however he was a constant thorn in Barcelona's side. It's of course a little silly to base analysis on a meaningless game like that second leg, but I do think the possession of a decent left winger will cause Barcelona far more problems than he ordinarily should. Unfortunatley for Chelsea, Florent Malouda is not a decent winger, and so they will rely on him at their peril.
- Florent Malouda is still crap
There have been vicious rumours spreading recently regarding Malouda. Some people are actually saying that he has finally gotten his act together. These people are proclaiming that at long lost we are seeing the Malouda of old, and how he is a changed man under Hiddink etc etc. What these people fail to realise is that the Malouda of old wasn't much good.
Football Focus are the masters of this kind of spur of the moment analysis. If you string two good games together then prepare for an interview where you will be asked about the "tough times", but also about the promising future which may include an England call up "provided I just keep my head down and keep doing what I'm doing". The name Darren Bent springs to mind. Harry came in, Bent got a couple of goals and was suddenly a great striker again, but before long he was back to being no better than Mrs Redknapp, which sadly is a fairer reflection of his limited abilities.
I don't envision Florent Malouda's story ending any differently. Like Bent he has never been a good player. We've seen the real Malouda in the Premier League. His latest performances are simply an abberation, so I don't expect them to last, and I certainly don't expect him to be a thorn in Barcelona's side. It's true that he may find some joy given that Alves has the unique characteristic of being a defender who enters his own half reluctantly, but of all the wingers Alves could have faced in the semi-finals surely Malouda is the most impotent.
However, the impotence of Malouda may prove to be of secondary importance to his defensive prowess. I expect Chelsea to do something of a Man Utd at the Nou Camp and sit back, basically playing with two full backs on either flank. Is Malouda disciplined enough to perform this task? Given that Theo Walcott was Arsenal's most dangerous player on Saturday it doesn't seem likely.
It may seem like I'm just saying this given the topic in question, but one of the sure ways to hurt Barcelona is to have a left winger who can run at people and who uses the ball cleverly. The threat of Ribery was negated in the first leg simply because Bayern were a shambles and could hardly touch the ball. In the second leg however he was a constant thorn in Barcelona's side. It's of course a little silly to base analysis on a meaningless game like that second leg, but I do think the possession of a decent left winger will cause Barcelona far more problems than he ordinarily should. Unfortunatley for Chelsea, Florent Malouda is not a decent winger, and so they will rely on him at their peril.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Cheap Thrills
This will sound like me being a Negative Nancy just for the sake of it, but I have to agree with Eamonn Dunphy - last night's game wasn't all that good. To use a television analogy, it was like an episode of Lost. It had no pattern, people were just making things up was they went along, and there were plot holes right left and centre. Was it entertaining? Sure, but only because it was a farce. People are describing this game as "epic", an historic encounter between two superpowers. I disagree.
Liverpool went 2-0 up without really playing all that well. A great freekick and a penalty probably flattered them, but then with the way Chelsea played you could say that they deserved to be 2-0 down. Chelsea came back into the game in the second half, but only thanks to an horrendous error by Reina. Their second was a freekick, which I think could have been stopped. So that's four goals, three of which came from set plays and one of which was extremely dodgey.
Liverpool looked bereft of ideas at this point, and Lampard put Chelsea 3-2 after a horrible pass by Alonso was punished by a good pass by Ballack and neat play by Drogba. Benitez then withdrew Torres, thus signalling the white flag. Then out of nothing -- aka Lucas Leiva -- the Reds clawed a goal back Frank Lampard style - a deflected hit and hope. A Dirk Kuyt header followed a couple of minutes later and quite remarkably Liverpool were within one goal of going through. Lampard squashed any hopes of a thrilling finish by netting the goal of the game, and that was that.
In short, if I wanted to watch this kind of football I'd tune into the Dutch League, where players of Kesman's quality get 103 goals in 7 matches. Lots of goals does not equal a good game. These kind of mistake-ridden matches may be fun to watch, but give me a high quality 0-0 any day of the week. A game of football should tell a story; a coherent story. As with a great footballer, a great football match should make sense. The true beauty and entertainment of football is not found in the cheap thrills of a-goal-a-minute. I can appreciate people enjoying the game last night. Heck, I used to enjoy Lost. But I cannot go so far as to call it a great game.
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On another note, Ribery was quite brilliant last night. If Barcelona or United sign him they will be fearsome if he can perform like that week in week out.
Liverpool went 2-0 up without really playing all that well. A great freekick and a penalty probably flattered them, but then with the way Chelsea played you could say that they deserved to be 2-0 down. Chelsea came back into the game in the second half, but only thanks to an horrendous error by Reina. Their second was a freekick, which I think could have been stopped. So that's four goals, three of which came from set plays and one of which was extremely dodgey.
Liverpool looked bereft of ideas at this point, and Lampard put Chelsea 3-2 after a horrible pass by Alonso was punished by a good pass by Ballack and neat play by Drogba. Benitez then withdrew Torres, thus signalling the white flag. Then out of nothing -- aka Lucas Leiva -- the Reds clawed a goal back Frank Lampard style - a deflected hit and hope. A Dirk Kuyt header followed a couple of minutes later and quite remarkably Liverpool were within one goal of going through. Lampard squashed any hopes of a thrilling finish by netting the goal of the game, and that was that.
In short, if I wanted to watch this kind of football I'd tune into the Dutch League, where players of Kesman's quality get 103 goals in 7 matches. Lots of goals does not equal a good game. These kind of mistake-ridden matches may be fun to watch, but give me a high quality 0-0 any day of the week. A game of football should tell a story; a coherent story. As with a great footballer, a great football match should make sense. The true beauty and entertainment of football is not found in the cheap thrills of a-goal-a-minute. I can appreciate people enjoying the game last night. Heck, I used to enjoy Lost. But I cannot go so far as to call it a great game.
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On another note, Ribery was quite brilliant last night. If Barcelona or United sign him they will be fearsome if he can perform like that week in week out.
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
If They're Anything Like Last Night's...
After two pretty excellent quarter-finals yesterday, I have to first of all say that I was very wrong to completely dismiss Porto's chances against United (even though about 15 minutes prior to dismissing them I said that they had a chance of possibly causing an upset against whoever they drew). I also can't wait for tonight's games! Liverpool have become an interesting team to watch, and I have a sneaky feeling we could be in for a cracker tonight. But even if I'm way off, there is always Barcelona against Bayern to lean on. Two teams who have very little interest and capabilities in the defense, but a range of top attacking talent. Well, Bayern have Ribery (who for the record I'm not entirely convinced of yet, but admittedly I haven't seen much of him) and Barcelona have Messi, Xavi, Iniesta, Eto'o and Henry. I'll be interested to see how the latter two get on since I have expressed doubt about them before. Still, I don't expect those doubts to be realised until Barcelona face a good defense, so we shall have to wait until a possible semi-final to see if I'm right or wrong.
Like last night I'll be watching one game on the television and one on the computer. It is hard not to focus on one game, but it's a decent system nonetheless. Anyway, I'm off to waste time until 7pm, at which point I hope to hear what Dunphy -- RTE's "student of the Spanish game" -- has to say about Barcelona. Hopeless at the back, magic up front I'm guessing. For once I think legitimate students of the Spanish game might just agree with him.
As an aside, one of the many reasons why I love Dunphy -- who else would coin the phrase "the Ronaldo disease"? -- is that he loves Iniesta. Most people do at this stage but Dunphy has done for quite a while now, so kudos for that.
Like last night I'll be watching one game on the television and one on the computer. It is hard not to focus on one game, but it's a decent system nonetheless. Anyway, I'm off to waste time until 7pm, at which point I hope to hear what Dunphy -- RTE's "student of the Spanish game" -- has to say about Barcelona. Hopeless at the back, magic up front I'm guessing. For once I think legitimate students of the Spanish game might just agree with him.
As an aside, one of the many reasons why I love Dunphy -- who else would coin the phrase "the Ronaldo disease"? -- is that he loves Iniesta. Most people do at this stage but Dunphy has done for quite a while now, so kudos for that.
Quel Surpise
They're nervous. They're complacent. They're afraid of missing out on 4 trophies. They're tired. There is a "Ronaldo disease" spreading throughout the club.
These are just some of the reasons the RTE panel gave for Man Utd's latest poor display, perhaps they're worst yet. Dunphy wonders what has happened to the United of two months ago, and it seems most people are incredibly surprised at the state "The Untouchables" find themselves in. I have to say, I think the RTE panel and most others are asking the wrong question. What I want to know is how this pretty average group of players (there are exceptions of course) managed to go "untochable" for so long. The mystery to this United team is not how they are now suddenly fallible; it's how they were ever infallible.
Last night's squad was virtually at full strength. Yes they were missing Berbatov, but can anyone say he has made any difference in big games this season? To point to his absence as crucial is the equivalent of missing your ex-girlfriend even though you dumped her because she was too lazy and didn't work hard enough...or something. Ferdinand was also out, but he has been out before and United have done alright. And yet despite a near full strength squad, this United team looked absolutely bereft of attacking threat. The highlights of their chances said as much. Rooney was game, but then he is always game. Apart from him however, there was no one who troubled Porto. Surely this must be of worry to United fans.
In my eyes, the simple fact is that about half of United's players aren't good enough to play for one of the best clubs in the world. Forget about nerves or complacency. The root of the problem is not attitude; it's ability. Compare Fletcher and Carrick to Xavi and Iniesta. Chalk and cheese, my friend. Chalk and cheese. That's not to say United wouldn't have a hope against Barcelona, but it is to say that Barcelona would completely dominate the midfield. When this Man Utd team face opposition who can keep the ball (something they generally don't face in the Premier League) they're limited ability begins to show itself.
All is not lost of course. A win in Porto is distinctly possible, and I'd still fancy them to go through. The defense is certainly nowhere near as fragile as it has looked recently, so an improvement on that front will steady the ship. Still, the best squad ever? No chance. That they're still on course to win a sackful of trophies is perhaps the most surprising thing to happen in football in the last few seasons. They may still do it, but if I were a gamlin' man I would be backing someone from the other side of the draw to win the Champions League.
These are just some of the reasons the RTE panel gave for Man Utd's latest poor display, perhaps they're worst yet. Dunphy wonders what has happened to the United of two months ago, and it seems most people are incredibly surprised at the state "The Untouchables" find themselves in. I have to say, I think the RTE panel and most others are asking the wrong question. What I want to know is how this pretty average group of players (there are exceptions of course) managed to go "untochable" for so long. The mystery to this United team is not how they are now suddenly fallible; it's how they were ever infallible.
Last night's squad was virtually at full strength. Yes they were missing Berbatov, but can anyone say he has made any difference in big games this season? To point to his absence as crucial is the equivalent of missing your ex-girlfriend even though you dumped her because she was too lazy and didn't work hard enough...or something. Ferdinand was also out, but he has been out before and United have done alright. And yet despite a near full strength squad, this United team looked absolutely bereft of attacking threat. The highlights of their chances said as much. Rooney was game, but then he is always game. Apart from him however, there was no one who troubled Porto. Surely this must be of worry to United fans.
In my eyes, the simple fact is that about half of United's players aren't good enough to play for one of the best clubs in the world. Forget about nerves or complacency. The root of the problem is not attitude; it's ability. Compare Fletcher and Carrick to Xavi and Iniesta. Chalk and cheese, my friend. Chalk and cheese. That's not to say United wouldn't have a hope against Barcelona, but it is to say that Barcelona would completely dominate the midfield. When this Man Utd team face opposition who can keep the ball (something they generally don't face in the Premier League) they're limited ability begins to show itself.
All is not lost of course. A win in Porto is distinctly possible, and I'd still fancy them to go through. The defense is certainly nowhere near as fragile as it has looked recently, so an improvement on that front will steady the ship. Still, the best squad ever? No chance. That they're still on course to win a sackful of trophies is perhaps the most surprising thing to happen in football in the last few seasons. They may still do it, but if I were a gamlin' man I would be backing someone from the other side of the draw to win the Champions League.
Friday, March 20, 2009
Initial Reaction:
What a rubbish draw. I don't think it could have worked out more boring. Forget all that nonsense I wrote about Porto. They don't stand a chance. Barca v Bayern should be fun, but Barca v anyone would be fun. Liverpool v Chelsea as the 'big game' is just a joke at this stage, and easily the worst of the games that could have materialised from two of the big 5 having to play each other. In short, I've never been so let down by anything in my life. If the favourites go through -- Arsenal, United, Liverpool/Chelsea and Barca -- then we'll have some cracking semi-finals, but I fear for this next round of matches. The Arsenal game should be interesting, but of course that one won't be shown on television. Oh man. I'm pissed. Just think of what the quarter-finals couyld have looked like:
Man Utd - Barcelona
Arsenal - Chelsea
Liverpool - Villarreal
Bayern - Porto
Basically any other draw would have been more satisfying for a neutral. Agreed?
Man Utd - Barcelona
Arsenal - Chelsea
Liverpool - Villarreal
Bayern - Porto
Basically any other draw would have been more satisfying for a neutral. Agreed?
The Draw
I can't wait for this draw. I mean that. I've literally stopped waiting and started writing this post in order to pass the time. While there are clearly a "big 5" in the draw, I think all eight of the teams have a reasonable -- though not equal -- chance of progress into the semis. Porto have got a decent midfield and forward line, though their defense is pretty woeful. But against a team which doesn't like to take the attacking initiative such as Liverpool and Villarreal I think Porto could do alright. Underdogs against whoever they meet? Yes, but they shouldn't be entirely useless like their compatriots in the last round. And if nothing else, it's always fun to watch a guy called 'Hulk' play. Seriously. They have a 'Hulk' on their team.
Villarreal have yet to lose to United in four outings, so they are no pushovers. I saw them against Barcelona before Christmas and they really should have won, with poor finishing letting them down. They are a technically proficient team, and should be a match for anyone. Will they win the competition? Most likely not, but they could well cause an upset if drawn against one of the big 5, and if they avoid them then I'd make them one of the favourites to get into the semi-finals, and who knows what can happen then...
Bayern are an unknown quantity. How much can you really tell about a team who wins 12-1 over two games? I can't profess to have seen a full a game of theirs -- which is largely the reason that they are "unknown" -- but I do know some of their players and on their day they could cause some bother. What is worrying is that they are not top of the German League, but that could actually work out in their favour and boost their competitive spirit. Still, I don't rate Klinsmann as a tactical coach, and so they will probably get "played" by a Benitez or a Ferguson, but against Arsenal and Barcelona they could just go hell for leather and hope for the best.
The one thing that is guaranteed from this draw is that two of the big 5 will play each other, so we're in for at least one cracking game. I've just realised that in about 15 minutes this post will be utterly meaningless, but whatever, I now only have 15 minutes to waste. Facebook here I come...
Villarreal have yet to lose to United in four outings, so they are no pushovers. I saw them against Barcelona before Christmas and they really should have won, with poor finishing letting them down. They are a technically proficient team, and should be a match for anyone. Will they win the competition? Most likely not, but they could well cause an upset if drawn against one of the big 5, and if they avoid them then I'd make them one of the favourites to get into the semi-finals, and who knows what can happen then...
Bayern are an unknown quantity. How much can you really tell about a team who wins 12-1 over two games? I can't profess to have seen a full a game of theirs -- which is largely the reason that they are "unknown" -- but I do know some of their players and on their day they could cause some bother. What is worrying is that they are not top of the German League, but that could actually work out in their favour and boost their competitive spirit. Still, I don't rate Klinsmann as a tactical coach, and so they will probably get "played" by a Benitez or a Ferguson, but against Arsenal and Barcelona they could just go hell for leather and hope for the best.
The one thing that is guaranteed from this draw is that two of the big 5 will play each other, so we're in for at least one cracking game. I've just realised that in about 15 minutes this post will be utterly meaningless, but whatever, I now only have 15 minutes to waste. Facebook here I come...
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
3 in 1
In order to atone for not having seen a live Champions League game since the knockout stages began I decided to watch three of them tonight. That's right - three games of football simultaneously. Two on my laptop, one on the box. I figured since I sometimes played on about 6 online poker tables at a time I might be able to pull this feat off. Not quite.
It was hard to get a feel for any of the games, but there were still some things that were apparent. Arsenal were bad, in what was a scrappy game. I'm glad they got through, if only because they have a slightly better chance of doing something in the competition than Roma would have had. With Fabregas and co. to return they should prove difficult opponents for any team, but they will rightfully be 5th favourites to win the thing. They did well on the penalties though. I honestly didn't think they would triumph against a more experienced Roma team -- just take a look at some of their penalities, specifically Montella's and Totti's -- but the young players held their nerve so hats off to them for that. That's character building stuff right there. However, do not be surprised if they lose to Blackburn on Saturday.
Man Utd's 2-0 win was flattering to say the least. They really could, and perhaps should, have lost. Berbatov was hopeless, Carrick's limitations were exposed, and any romantics who still think that Giggs and Scholes are top players had cold water poured on them. They are favourites to go on and lift the trophy, but I hope they don't. Not just because I hate United, which I truly do. I just think that a treble or a quadruple would be ridiculously flattering for what I consider to be a good, but not great, team. I mean just look at their midfield! It's really quite average in my opinion. Bah, they're gonna win everything, aren't they? Yep, they are. Damn.
Barcelona may pose the biggest threat to them, but their defense is just too bad for me to jump on the Catalan bandwagon. They conceded two soft goals tonight, and against a more potent attack than Lyon's they could concede even more. They are a fantastic attacking force, despite the profligacy of Eto'o, and will be great entertainment value in the quarter finals. Players like Messi, Xavi and Iniesta deserve to be on the big stage, so I hope they get one of the Premier League clubs in the next round, one in the semi finals, and then beat one in the final. Now what was that about not jumping on bandwagons?
It was hard to get a feel for any of the games, but there were still some things that were apparent. Arsenal were bad, in what was a scrappy game. I'm glad they got through, if only because they have a slightly better chance of doing something in the competition than Roma would have had. With Fabregas and co. to return they should prove difficult opponents for any team, but they will rightfully be 5th favourites to win the thing. They did well on the penalties though. I honestly didn't think they would triumph against a more experienced Roma team -- just take a look at some of their penalities, specifically Montella's and Totti's -- but the young players held their nerve so hats off to them for that. That's character building stuff right there. However, do not be surprised if they lose to Blackburn on Saturday.
Man Utd's 2-0 win was flattering to say the least. They really could, and perhaps should, have lost. Berbatov was hopeless, Carrick's limitations were exposed, and any romantics who still think that Giggs and Scholes are top players had cold water poured on them. They are favourites to go on and lift the trophy, but I hope they don't. Not just because I hate United, which I truly do. I just think that a treble or a quadruple would be ridiculously flattering for what I consider to be a good, but not great, team. I mean just look at their midfield! It's really quite average in my opinion. Bah, they're gonna win everything, aren't they? Yep, they are. Damn.
Barcelona may pose the biggest threat to them, but their defense is just too bad for me to jump on the Catalan bandwagon. They conceded two soft goals tonight, and against a more potent attack than Lyon's they could concede even more. They are a fantastic attacking force, despite the profligacy of Eto'o, and will be great entertainment value in the quarter finals. Players like Messi, Xavi and Iniesta deserve to be on the big stage, so I hope they get one of the Premier League clubs in the next round, one in the semi finals, and then beat one in the final. Now what was that about not jumping on bandwagons?
Friday, February 27, 2009
Champions League Reaction
4 of the 8 games in this weeks Champions League had winners; 3 of those 4 winners were English teams. And yet, it is still conceivable for all four English teams to crash out. Improbable, but by no means impossible.
All four ties involving the Big Four still hang in the balance, though their dominance was plainly visible on Tuesday and Wednesday night (with the exception of Chelsea). Inter -- top of the Italian league by 9 points -- were once again shown up for the second-rate chumps that they are (which was just about the only prediction I got right). Their midfield is void of creativity, and their attack is void of nothing, what with a rotund Adriano taking up all the space. However, though United are favourites to progress, is it really beyond Inter to sneak a goal and defend like crazy? Not under Mourinho, that's for sure.
Liverpool bored their way to another victory, these time defeating the equally boring Real Madrid. However, should Robben decide to hit the target at Anfield then one goal from Madrid makes the outcome of this tie far from certain. Madrid are an awful team of course, but then so are Liverpool, yet that's never stopped them from getting unlikely results. My advice, stay clear of this game and watch the Chelsea-Juve clash. Could be your last chance to see Pavel Nedved in action.
Speaking of Chelsea-Juve, this was apparently the match of the round. A 1-0 win at home is a good result, but by all accounts Juve were the better team for large portions of the game, and this with Tiago and Sissoko in midfield. Bearing in mind that Chelsea lost 3-1 the last time they visited Italy, the outcome of this match is far from a foregone conclusion. Could this be the end of the Chelsea team as we know it? Don't bet against it.
Arsenal also won 1-0 at home, and of the four English teams they would be the ones I would be most confident of progressing, especially given the way they play away from home (cast your mind back to them outplaying Liverpool at Anfield last season and going 1 up, albeit with a slightly better midfield). I wouldn't be surprised if they beat Roma in Rome, but then again Roma do have a good record against English opposition at home, having just beaten Chelsea 3-1 in this year's competition. But then again, Arsenal have a good record in Italy, so who knows? Along with the Chelsea-Juve game this should be the neutrals choice come the second legs, so don't blame me after you watch United scrape a 1-0 win and see Liverpool grind out a 0-0 draw.
My predicitions (because I know you want them): Arsenal and Chelsea to go through, United and Liverpool to go out*.
* I say this because I am a firm believer that playing the second leg away from home is to your advantage. You know what you need to do, and if you need to get an away goal then it's not too late. Remember that games are not dicated by the crowd; they're dictated by how you approach them. Knowing what you need to do away from home gives you options - protect when you need to protect, go gung-ho when you need to score. Playing the away game first leaves things unsure. I'm sure there are those who disagree (like UEFA for example) so feel free to say as much in the comments section.
All four ties involving the Big Four still hang in the balance, though their dominance was plainly visible on Tuesday and Wednesday night (with the exception of Chelsea). Inter -- top of the Italian league by 9 points -- were once again shown up for the second-rate chumps that they are (which was just about the only prediction I got right). Their midfield is void of creativity, and their attack is void of nothing, what with a rotund Adriano taking up all the space. However, though United are favourites to progress, is it really beyond Inter to sneak a goal and defend like crazy? Not under Mourinho, that's for sure.
Liverpool bored their way to another victory, these time defeating the equally boring Real Madrid. However, should Robben decide to hit the target at Anfield then one goal from Madrid makes the outcome of this tie far from certain. Madrid are an awful team of course, but then so are Liverpool, yet that's never stopped them from getting unlikely results. My advice, stay clear of this game and watch the Chelsea-Juve clash. Could be your last chance to see Pavel Nedved in action.
Speaking of Chelsea-Juve, this was apparently the match of the round. A 1-0 win at home is a good result, but by all accounts Juve were the better team for large portions of the game, and this with Tiago and Sissoko in midfield. Bearing in mind that Chelsea lost 3-1 the last time they visited Italy, the outcome of this match is far from a foregone conclusion. Could this be the end of the Chelsea team as we know it? Don't bet against it.
Arsenal also won 1-0 at home, and of the four English teams they would be the ones I would be most confident of progressing, especially given the way they play away from home (cast your mind back to them outplaying Liverpool at Anfield last season and going 1 up, albeit with a slightly better midfield). I wouldn't be surprised if they beat Roma in Rome, but then again Roma do have a good record against English opposition at home, having just beaten Chelsea 3-1 in this year's competition. But then again, Arsenal have a good record in Italy, so who knows? Along with the Chelsea-Juve game this should be the neutrals choice come the second legs, so don't blame me after you watch United scrape a 1-0 win and see Liverpool grind out a 0-0 draw.
My predicitions (because I know you want them): Arsenal and Chelsea to go through, United and Liverpool to go out*.
* I say this because I am a firm believer that playing the second leg away from home is to your advantage. You know what you need to do, and if you need to get an away goal then it's not too late. Remember that games are not dicated by the crowd; they're dictated by how you approach them. Knowing what you need to do away from home gives you options - protect when you need to protect, go gung-ho when you need to score. Playing the away game first leaves things unsure. I'm sure there are those who disagree (like UEFA for example) so feel free to say as much in the comments section.
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Predictions
I wanted to do a really cool prediction post for the Champions League, but I'm going to do this instead. Besides, predictions are difficult to make interesting since at the end of the day all they are is pure subjective speculation, so what's the point in putting effort into them?
With regards the ties I care about, here are my thoughts. I think Inter Milan will once again be shown up for the second rate team that they are, and will be beaten comprehensively by United over the two legs. Tonight's game might be tight, but I expect United to win comfortably at Old Trafford, so I'm gonna say 4-1 on aggregate.
Liverpool will probably lose tonight, but I think they may just scrape though over the two legs. Ramos says that he's looking for 3 goals at home, and if they get them (and there is a decent chance of this happening) then of course they will probably go through. But anything less and I'd fancy Liverpool. Anfield, European night, etc etc.
Chelsea will go through with ease. I just can't see Juventus posing them any real problems. Why? Conjecture, that's why.
Arsenal v Roma depends a lot on tonight and what kind of Arsenal show up. They can't score in the league, so if this form translates to Europe then they're screwed...obviously. Also, they're young midfield could be extremely nervous without the cool head of Fabregas to steady the ship. To be honest I wouldn't be confident with any prediction for this match, so in the words of Dunphy, "I'm not gonna spoof ya, Bill".
Barcelona will lose to Lyon tonight. There, I said it. This could arguably be the tie of the round, but over the two legs I expect Barca will go through, with an aggregate score of 9-8 or something like that.
And as for eventual winners, try Arsenal on for size. They may not get past Roma, but if they do they will have some important players returning thereafter, and could end up putting all their eggs into the Champions League sponsored basket. If you are so inclined, 16/1 looks a tasty bet, especially considering that 4 of United, Liverpool, Chelsea, Barcelona, Lyon, Madrid, Barcelona and Juventus will be no more come the next round.
With regards the ties I care about, here are my thoughts. I think Inter Milan will once again be shown up for the second rate team that they are, and will be beaten comprehensively by United over the two legs. Tonight's game might be tight, but I expect United to win comfortably at Old Trafford, so I'm gonna say 4-1 on aggregate.
Liverpool will probably lose tonight, but I think they may just scrape though over the two legs. Ramos says that he's looking for 3 goals at home, and if they get them (and there is a decent chance of this happening) then of course they will probably go through. But anything less and I'd fancy Liverpool. Anfield, European night, etc etc.
Chelsea will go through with ease. I just can't see Juventus posing them any real problems. Why? Conjecture, that's why.
Arsenal v Roma depends a lot on tonight and what kind of Arsenal show up. They can't score in the league, so if this form translates to Europe then they're screwed...obviously. Also, they're young midfield could be extremely nervous without the cool head of Fabregas to steady the ship. To be honest I wouldn't be confident with any prediction for this match, so in the words of Dunphy, "I'm not gonna spoof ya, Bill".
Barcelona will lose to Lyon tonight. There, I said it. This could arguably be the tie of the round, but over the two legs I expect Barca will go through, with an aggregate score of 9-8 or something like that.
And as for eventual winners, try Arsenal on for size. They may not get past Roma, but if they do they will have some important players returning thereafter, and could end up putting all their eggs into the Champions League sponsored basket. If you are so inclined, 16/1 looks a tasty bet, especially considering that 4 of United, Liverpool, Chelsea, Barcelona, Lyon, Madrid, Barcelona and Juventus will be no more come the next round.
Sunday, December 28, 2008
Another Year Over
Since it's that time of year, I thought I'd compile a list of some memorable football moments over the past 12 months. This is a totally subjective list, so bear that in mind before leaving angry comments about the exclusion of so-and-so. I don't doubt that I've left out some footballing nuggets, but these are what came to mind in the 10 minutes I spent thinking about the year gone by. I'll try and include relevant Youtube clips where possible, because that's the kind of guy I am. And also, the list has no order. So without further adieu...
Fabregas v Milan
It was the second leg of the first Champions League knockout round. Milan had gotten a slightly fortuitous 0-0 draw at the Emirates, where Adebayor somehow managed to miss a header roughly 7 inches from the goal line. Most people thought Arsenal had blown their chance. The old dogs of Milan were said to be too wily to let this youthful Arsenal side get the result they needed on Italian soil. Cesc Fabregas and co. proved most people very wrong.
It was a team effort of course, with even Philip Senderos playing well for a change. But it was the little Spaniard that ran the show from beginning to end. His tackling was tenacious, his workrate second to none, and everything we've come to expect from Fabregas -- his impeccable decision making, his precise passing, his ability to control the tempo of a game -- was on song. He had been quite laboured in the weeks that led up to this game, and quite laboured afterwards as well, but in these 90 minutes he was the complete midfielder, showing the once imperious Pirlo how it's now done.
Discovering Football Weekly
I can't quite remember when exactly I discovered Football Weekly, but I know it was some time in 2008, so that's good enough for it to make the list. I've championed this podcast on the blog already, but I have no problem doing so again.
To put it plainly, my football experience is not complete until I hear the opinions of "the pod" on Monday afternoon and Thursday evening. For anyone who says that football is their favourite sport, Football Weekly is practically required listening. If you haven't yet discovered the joy of it, then do so as soon as possible. There will be a new podcast up on Monday the 29th. I strongly encourage you to listen to it.
Arsenal v Liverpool
Another Arsenal related moment. This time the Gunners were faced with a tricky tie against Liverpool at Anfield (Liverpool in the Champions League and all that jazz) after coming out of the first leg at the Emirates with an unjust 1-1 draw (it should really have been 2-1, with Bendtner blocking a goal bound effort from Fabregas, and the referee denying Hleb a stone wall penalty after the Belarusian had danced his way into the box with his patented nimble footwork). Arsenal had to score at Anfield, and boy did they do just that and then some.
They completely dominated for 30 minutes, playing some of the best football of the season. The goal came from a neatly worked move, and at that point it almost looked like it was just a question of how many Arsenal would score. But then the Senderos factor kicked in. Having completley lost one of the most dangerous aerial threats of the last 10 years in the form of Sami Hyypia at a corner, Senderos then went on to give about 3 yards of space in the box to one of the most potent finishers in the Premier League, and Torres accepted the gift by guiding the ball into the top corner.
The game seemed to just drift away from Arsenal, until Theo Walcott produced a moment of unbelievable brilliance. Never did I think him capable of such things, but he proved me and a host of other people very wrong. It was just incredible to watch, and a moment worthy of winning any tie. Unfortunately for Walcott and Arsenal, it wasn't sufficient to win this tie. In keeping with their season, Arsenal managed to overshadow their attacking prowess by switching off mentality, and allowing Liverpool to go straight back up the field and win a (soft) penalty. A fourth Liverpool goal followed, and Arsenal's Champions League dream was shattered.
Still though, this was easily the game of the season for me, and one that will live long in the memory. If I did have an order to this list, this game would probably be at the top.
Terry Penalty
England's lion heart. England's war hero. Chelsea's rock, their heartbeat, their captain fantastic. John Terry has received all sorts of praise over the years, but in my opinion he has been vastly overrated. He is a good defender, but he's not even the best at his own club. That honour goes to Ricardo Carvalho, and it seems that it is the Portuguese defender's absence which is alerting people to this fact ironically enough.
Terry's missed penalty has of course nothing to do with his defensive capabilities, but you can forgive me for taking a certain amount of pleasure from seeing him completely fluff the chance to win Chelsea that much coveted Champions League trophy. Why he was the designated fifth penalty taker I do not know. The nasty part of me thinks that he just wanted the chance to be a hero, and selfishly decided to step up to the plate rather than letting someone with actual penalty taking abilities to the job. But then maybe no one else wanted the pressure, so JT took it upon himself when all else cowered at the chance.
Either way, he missed, and at that point you just knew who was going to go on and lift the trophy. The only disappointment was that had he scored the penalty, then Ronaldo would have been to blame for United's loss, and on a schadenfreude measuring device, I don't think anything could top that.
Messi v Ronaldo
When Man United and Barcelona were pitted against each other in the semi final of the Champions League, football fans' collective mouth began to water. The games themselves didn't quite work out as people thought they might. They were supposed to be end-to-end affairs, feasts of attacking football, but instead they were slightly cagey, with Barcelona having most of the ball and United defending superbly.
However, the subplot in this tie was equally intriguing. This was billed as 'Ronaldo vs Messi', the battle to see who really is the best player in the world. Of course all of this was sheer hype, and the best player in the world was never going to be decided during the course of two games. But that didn't stop people from getting worked up, with many probably seeing this as the chance for Ronaldo to show that he is the superior footballing specimen.
Well, he did nothing of the sort. If this was indeed Ronaldo vs Messi, then there was only one clear winner, and it wasn't the player who plucks his eye brows. Messi had been out for a month or so before the two games, but he was a constant thorn in United's side over both legs, producing some vintage 'Messi' moments along the way, some of which you can see here. There was a priceless piece of play in the first leg when Messi faced Ronaldo with the ball, waited for the pristinely groomed playboy to make a tackle, and just jinked by him in the blink of an eye. It served as a microcosm of the duo's battle.
The good news is that finally, after many, many months of hearing about Ronaldo's status as best in the world, people have woken up to the fact that the Camp Nou is the home of the world's best football player. The irony is that this realization was only cemented in popular belief around the time Ronaldo picked up the Ballon D'Or. That must really hurt the winker's ego..No wonder he's lashing out at everyone in sight.
Spain
It's very rare these days that the team who play the best football win a major trophy at international level. Since France's victory at Euro 2000, there hasn't really been a team worthy to be considered the best in the world/Europe. In 2002, Brazil won what was a distinctly average World Cup, 2004 saw a resolute but technically limited Greece side lift the European Cup, and the same can be said about the victorious Italian side of 2006, who were excellent in defense but quite laboured in the final third of the pitch. In each of these tournaments the quality was subpar, and only the Argentine team of '06 sticks out as being truly world class.
Euro 2008 broke the curse of dodgy international football, and it saw Spain break their long lived curse of being supreme under achievers. In truth, I think Spain have been vastly overrated in previous tournaments. Players like Etxeberria, Albelda, Baraja, Luque and Joaquin were getting games in 2004, but they were not really good enough to ever win anything. Compare them with Xavi, Iniesta, Senna, Villa and Fabregas and it is clear that the Spain team of 2008 really was a much better team than those of previous years. This was a team with genuine talent, a team that could have been justifiably branded as having under achieved by getting knocked out in the quarter finals.
However, this was to be their year, and never has a team so richly deserved to lift a trophy. They played the best football in a tournament full of good football, and I don't think there is any football fan who would begrudge them their victory. The defining moment of their tournament has to be the win over Italy in the quarter finals. This would usually have been the point for Spain to exit stage left, and having outplayed the Italian's for 120 minutes it seemed all set up for Italy to snatch victory courtesy of a penalty shootout. However, Fabregas was given the chance to exorcise a host of demons, and the former Barcelona prodigy made no mistake, cooly slotting the ball past one of the best goalkeepers ever to grace the sport.
This monumental win lifted the heavy burden off of Spanish shoulders, and they went on to dispatch Russia by playing their best football of the tournament, and ended proceedings by completely outclassing Germany in the final.
Euro 2008 was not only a victory for Spain though - it serves as a victory for football in general. The Spanish team didn't contain any immense physical specimens like Drogba or Cristiano Ronaldo. This was a victory for brain over braun. A victory for intelligence over physicality. Spain showed that playing football the way it should be played, the way that makes it the beautiful game, is the best way to win things. They have set the bar when it comes to international football, and given the relative youth of the side, it could be a while before they are knocked off their perch.
Barcelona v Athletico
There is no doubt as to which is the best club team at this moment in time, despite what the Fifa Club World Cup (or whatever it is called) might tell you. Barcelona have won 13 of 16 league games, scoring 48 goals and conceding only 10. If they were in the Premier League, they'd be third, 4 points behind Liverpool and 1 behind Chelsea, with four games in hand. As it is, they are first in La Liga, a massive 10 points clear of their nearest 'rivals' - hardly surprising given that they are averaging 3 goals a game, and have just beaten four of the best teams in Spain by an aggregate score of 11-1.
I've watched a lot of their games, but the one that stands out is the tie against Athletico Madrid. While Athletico were missing a few players, what Barcelona did to them was just catastrophic. The Catalan giants were 3-0 up after seven -- yes, seven -- minutes, and 5-1 up after twenty eight. It finished 6-1 in the end, but only because Barcelona didn't want to embarrass their opponents.
At the beginning of the season when Barcelona had lost and drawn their opening two fixtures, the ever excellent Sid Lowe (who will be in the pod today on Football Weekly) said that it's only a matter of time before Barcelona start clicking and beat someone 24-0. Well, they haven't quite managed 24, but they have won 6-1 (x2), 6-0, 5-0, 4-0, 4-1, and have generally looked unplayable.
While people are saying that Barcelona pose the biggest threat to another Champions League of Anglo domination, it seems more correct to say that the English teams pose the biggest threat to Barca domination. A slightly shakey defense still leaves a large question mark looming over their Champions League-winning credentials, but if they continue on this form in the new year and get past Lyon in the last 16 of the CL, then they will be the team that nobody (not even Liverpool) wants to draw.
Abu Dhabi Group
The comical tales of Messi and Kaka going to City aside, this takeover could well be the start of something very serious in world football. While Manchester City hover in and out of the relegation zone, the events of August 31 await their fulfillment in the January transfer window, and in the summer ahead. Nobody quite knows what's going to happen. Who will move to the Eastlands? Will players such as David Villa want to go? Or will City just end up buying the Shevchenko's of this world - former great players who are looking for a hefty retirement package?
There is talk of players like Bellamy, Defoe, and Parker moving to City, but if the Abu Dhabi group and Manchester City are serious about getting into the Champions League then they must overlook such third tier players. They need to look outside the Premier League for the players that they need, starting with Diego of Werder Bremen. A striker will most definitely be sought after, but Defoe and Bellamy don't represent good options. City should be looking to play a 4-2-3-1 formation (all the cool kids are using it these days), and I don't think such a formation will suit Defoe, and if Bellamy wasn't good enough for a bad Liverpool team then he shouldn't be good enough for a side looking to eventually break into the top 4. He's a mid-table player, nothing less and nothing more.
By signing Robinho, City have set the standard pretty high. I had my doubts about him -- some of which remain -- but you can't deny that he is a first or second tier player; his wonder goal against Arsenal and his last minute strike against Blackburn prove as much. But he needs good company (no pun attended). Will the Abu Dhabi group be able purchase the required personnel? We await with baited breath.
Ireland's goal v Hull
While Robinho has been quite the success story for City this season, he has actually been eclipsed by a 22 year old Irishman in the form of Steven Ireland. The former Cobh Ramblers youngster has been nothing short of excellent so far this season, and if the award for player of the season was given out now, he might well be the favourite to pick it up.
He has had many great moments in a City shirt so far, a personal favourite of mine being his performace against Hull on Boxing Day when he scored one and assisted three, giving me 38 points in Fantasy Football since I had him as captain.
However, the moment that encapsulates his season so far is his second goal against Hull back in November. He controlled the ball outside the box, and as it landed to the ground he just guided it into the bottom corner on the half-volley. It was a Robinho-esque piece of magic, and yet it was produced by someone who can play for the Irish national team. Speaking of which, if Steven Ireland isn't in the next Irish squad then Trapattoni needs his large head examined. At the moment he's the best Irish player I've seen since Roy Keane, and if we are to acheive anything then Steven Ireland must be reinstated, no matter how many grannies he's killed off.
Fabregas v Milan
It was the second leg of the first Champions League knockout round. Milan had gotten a slightly fortuitous 0-0 draw at the Emirates, where Adebayor somehow managed to miss a header roughly 7 inches from the goal line. Most people thought Arsenal had blown their chance. The old dogs of Milan were said to be too wily to let this youthful Arsenal side get the result they needed on Italian soil. Cesc Fabregas and co. proved most people very wrong.
It was a team effort of course, with even Philip Senderos playing well for a change. But it was the little Spaniard that ran the show from beginning to end. His tackling was tenacious, his workrate second to none, and everything we've come to expect from Fabregas -- his impeccable decision making, his precise passing, his ability to control the tempo of a game -- was on song. He had been quite laboured in the weeks that led up to this game, and quite laboured afterwards as well, but in these 90 minutes he was the complete midfielder, showing the once imperious Pirlo how it's now done.
Discovering Football Weekly
I can't quite remember when exactly I discovered Football Weekly, but I know it was some time in 2008, so that's good enough for it to make the list. I've championed this podcast on the blog already, but I have no problem doing so again.
To put it plainly, my football experience is not complete until I hear the opinions of "the pod" on Monday afternoon and Thursday evening. For anyone who says that football is their favourite sport, Football Weekly is practically required listening. If you haven't yet discovered the joy of it, then do so as soon as possible. There will be a new podcast up on Monday the 29th. I strongly encourage you to listen to it.
Arsenal v Liverpool
Another Arsenal related moment. This time the Gunners were faced with a tricky tie against Liverpool at Anfield (Liverpool in the Champions League and all that jazz) after coming out of the first leg at the Emirates with an unjust 1-1 draw (it should really have been 2-1, with Bendtner blocking a goal bound effort from Fabregas, and the referee denying Hleb a stone wall penalty after the Belarusian had danced his way into the box with his patented nimble footwork). Arsenal had to score at Anfield, and boy did they do just that and then some.
They completely dominated for 30 minutes, playing some of the best football of the season. The goal came from a neatly worked move, and at that point it almost looked like it was just a question of how many Arsenal would score. But then the Senderos factor kicked in. Having completley lost one of the most dangerous aerial threats of the last 10 years in the form of Sami Hyypia at a corner, Senderos then went on to give about 3 yards of space in the box to one of the most potent finishers in the Premier League, and Torres accepted the gift by guiding the ball into the top corner.
The game seemed to just drift away from Arsenal, until Theo Walcott produced a moment of unbelievable brilliance. Never did I think him capable of such things, but he proved me and a host of other people very wrong. It was just incredible to watch, and a moment worthy of winning any tie. Unfortunately for Walcott and Arsenal, it wasn't sufficient to win this tie. In keeping with their season, Arsenal managed to overshadow their attacking prowess by switching off mentality, and allowing Liverpool to go straight back up the field and win a (soft) penalty. A fourth Liverpool goal followed, and Arsenal's Champions League dream was shattered.
Still though, this was easily the game of the season for me, and one that will live long in the memory. If I did have an order to this list, this game would probably be at the top.
Terry Penalty
England's lion heart. England's war hero. Chelsea's rock, their heartbeat, their captain fantastic. John Terry has received all sorts of praise over the years, but in my opinion he has been vastly overrated. He is a good defender, but he's not even the best at his own club. That honour goes to Ricardo Carvalho, and it seems that it is the Portuguese defender's absence which is alerting people to this fact ironically enough.
Terry's missed penalty has of course nothing to do with his defensive capabilities, but you can forgive me for taking a certain amount of pleasure from seeing him completely fluff the chance to win Chelsea that much coveted Champions League trophy. Why he was the designated fifth penalty taker I do not know. The nasty part of me thinks that he just wanted the chance to be a hero, and selfishly decided to step up to the plate rather than letting someone with actual penalty taking abilities to the job. But then maybe no one else wanted the pressure, so JT took it upon himself when all else cowered at the chance.
Either way, he missed, and at that point you just knew who was going to go on and lift the trophy. The only disappointment was that had he scored the penalty, then Ronaldo would have been to blame for United's loss, and on a schadenfreude measuring device, I don't think anything could top that.
Messi v Ronaldo
When Man United and Barcelona were pitted against each other in the semi final of the Champions League, football fans' collective mouth began to water. The games themselves didn't quite work out as people thought they might. They were supposed to be end-to-end affairs, feasts of attacking football, but instead they were slightly cagey, with Barcelona having most of the ball and United defending superbly.
However, the subplot in this tie was equally intriguing. This was billed as 'Ronaldo vs Messi', the battle to see who really is the best player in the world. Of course all of this was sheer hype, and the best player in the world was never going to be decided during the course of two games. But that didn't stop people from getting worked up, with many probably seeing this as the chance for Ronaldo to show that he is the superior footballing specimen.
Well, he did nothing of the sort. If this was indeed Ronaldo vs Messi, then there was only one clear winner, and it wasn't the player who plucks his eye brows. Messi had been out for a month or so before the two games, but he was a constant thorn in United's side over both legs, producing some vintage 'Messi' moments along the way, some of which you can see here. There was a priceless piece of play in the first leg when Messi faced Ronaldo with the ball, waited for the pristinely groomed playboy to make a tackle, and just jinked by him in the blink of an eye. It served as a microcosm of the duo's battle.
The good news is that finally, after many, many months of hearing about Ronaldo's status as best in the world, people have woken up to the fact that the Camp Nou is the home of the world's best football player. The irony is that this realization was only cemented in popular belief around the time Ronaldo picked up the Ballon D'Or. That must really hurt the winker's ego..No wonder he's lashing out at everyone in sight.
Spain
It's very rare these days that the team who play the best football win a major trophy at international level. Since France's victory at Euro 2000, there hasn't really been a team worthy to be considered the best in the world/Europe. In 2002, Brazil won what was a distinctly average World Cup, 2004 saw a resolute but technically limited Greece side lift the European Cup, and the same can be said about the victorious Italian side of 2006, who were excellent in defense but quite laboured in the final third of the pitch. In each of these tournaments the quality was subpar, and only the Argentine team of '06 sticks out as being truly world class.
Euro 2008 broke the curse of dodgy international football, and it saw Spain break their long lived curse of being supreme under achievers. In truth, I think Spain have been vastly overrated in previous tournaments. Players like Etxeberria, Albelda, Baraja, Luque and Joaquin were getting games in 2004, but they were not really good enough to ever win anything. Compare them with Xavi, Iniesta, Senna, Villa and Fabregas and it is clear that the Spain team of 2008 really was a much better team than those of previous years. This was a team with genuine talent, a team that could have been justifiably branded as having under achieved by getting knocked out in the quarter finals.
However, this was to be their year, and never has a team so richly deserved to lift a trophy. They played the best football in a tournament full of good football, and I don't think there is any football fan who would begrudge them their victory. The defining moment of their tournament has to be the win over Italy in the quarter finals. This would usually have been the point for Spain to exit stage left, and having outplayed the Italian's for 120 minutes it seemed all set up for Italy to snatch victory courtesy of a penalty shootout. However, Fabregas was given the chance to exorcise a host of demons, and the former Barcelona prodigy made no mistake, cooly slotting the ball past one of the best goalkeepers ever to grace the sport.
This monumental win lifted the heavy burden off of Spanish shoulders, and they went on to dispatch Russia by playing their best football of the tournament, and ended proceedings by completely outclassing Germany in the final.
Euro 2008 was not only a victory for Spain though - it serves as a victory for football in general. The Spanish team didn't contain any immense physical specimens like Drogba or Cristiano Ronaldo. This was a victory for brain over braun. A victory for intelligence over physicality. Spain showed that playing football the way it should be played, the way that makes it the beautiful game, is the best way to win things. They have set the bar when it comes to international football, and given the relative youth of the side, it could be a while before they are knocked off their perch.
Barcelona v Athletico
There is no doubt as to which is the best club team at this moment in time, despite what the Fifa Club World Cup (or whatever it is called) might tell you. Barcelona have won 13 of 16 league games, scoring 48 goals and conceding only 10. If they were in the Premier League, they'd be third, 4 points behind Liverpool and 1 behind Chelsea, with four games in hand. As it is, they are first in La Liga, a massive 10 points clear of their nearest 'rivals' - hardly surprising given that they are averaging 3 goals a game, and have just beaten four of the best teams in Spain by an aggregate score of 11-1.
I've watched a lot of their games, but the one that stands out is the tie against Athletico Madrid. While Athletico were missing a few players, what Barcelona did to them was just catastrophic. The Catalan giants were 3-0 up after seven -- yes, seven -- minutes, and 5-1 up after twenty eight. It finished 6-1 in the end, but only because Barcelona didn't want to embarrass their opponents.
At the beginning of the season when Barcelona had lost and drawn their opening two fixtures, the ever excellent Sid Lowe (who will be in the pod today on Football Weekly) said that it's only a matter of time before Barcelona start clicking and beat someone 24-0. Well, they haven't quite managed 24, but they have won 6-1 (x2), 6-0, 5-0, 4-0, 4-1, and have generally looked unplayable.
While people are saying that Barcelona pose the biggest threat to another Champions League of Anglo domination, it seems more correct to say that the English teams pose the biggest threat to Barca domination. A slightly shakey defense still leaves a large question mark looming over their Champions League-winning credentials, but if they continue on this form in the new year and get past Lyon in the last 16 of the CL, then they will be the team that nobody (not even Liverpool) wants to draw.
Abu Dhabi Group
The comical tales of Messi and Kaka going to City aside, this takeover could well be the start of something very serious in world football. While Manchester City hover in and out of the relegation zone, the events of August 31 await their fulfillment in the January transfer window, and in the summer ahead. Nobody quite knows what's going to happen. Who will move to the Eastlands? Will players such as David Villa want to go? Or will City just end up buying the Shevchenko's of this world - former great players who are looking for a hefty retirement package?
There is talk of players like Bellamy, Defoe, and Parker moving to City, but if the Abu Dhabi group and Manchester City are serious about getting into the Champions League then they must overlook such third tier players. They need to look outside the Premier League for the players that they need, starting with Diego of Werder Bremen. A striker will most definitely be sought after, but Defoe and Bellamy don't represent good options. City should be looking to play a 4-2-3-1 formation (all the cool kids are using it these days), and I don't think such a formation will suit Defoe, and if Bellamy wasn't good enough for a bad Liverpool team then he shouldn't be good enough for a side looking to eventually break into the top 4. He's a mid-table player, nothing less and nothing more.
By signing Robinho, City have set the standard pretty high. I had my doubts about him -- some of which remain -- but you can't deny that he is a first or second tier player; his wonder goal against Arsenal and his last minute strike against Blackburn prove as much. But he needs good company (no pun attended). Will the Abu Dhabi group be able purchase the required personnel? We await with baited breath.
Ireland's goal v Hull
While Robinho has been quite the success story for City this season, he has actually been eclipsed by a 22 year old Irishman in the form of Steven Ireland. The former Cobh Ramblers youngster has been nothing short of excellent so far this season, and if the award for player of the season was given out now, he might well be the favourite to pick it up.
He has had many great moments in a City shirt so far, a personal favourite of mine being his performace against Hull on Boxing Day when he scored one and assisted three, giving me 38 points in Fantasy Football since I had him as captain.
However, the moment that encapsulates his season so far is his second goal against Hull back in November. He controlled the ball outside the box, and as it landed to the ground he just guided it into the bottom corner on the half-volley. It was a Robinho-esque piece of magic, and yet it was produced by someone who can play for the Irish national team. Speaking of which, if Steven Ireland isn't in the next Irish squad then Trapattoni needs his large head examined. At the moment he's the best Irish player I've seen since Roy Keane, and if we are to acheive anything then Steven Ireland must be reinstated, no matter how many grannies he's killed off.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
As Good As It Gets
First of all, as far as I'm aware there is now a 50% chance the either Chelsea or Arsenal will draw Barcelona in the next round. Since Barcelona can't face either of the Madrid's, Villarreal, or Sporting Lisbon, that only leaves four teams for them to be pitted against, two of which are English. This represents bad news for these three giants, but great news for rivals and neutrals. For Man Utd, there is a 50% chance that one of their biggest rivals will be eliminated from the competition. Maybe finishing first was actually the best thing after all. Stupid maths.
Anyway, the main reason I write is that there has been a lot of talk about the group stages this time around, with people pining for the days of old when it was either a competition strictly for champions, or a straight knock-out competition, or both. I have to say that I completely disagree with each and every one of these sentiments. Do people really want to see the Bulgarian champions play European football instead of Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea, Real Madrid, Villarreal? I hope not. We want to see the best teams play, and so if the fourth best English or Spanish team is better than the champion of an Eastern European league then so be it. (Of course there has to be limits, and I think top 4 is a suitable limit.)
It seems like people long for the days of cup upsets, where bin men and lorry drivers play in big matches and have a "great day out" etc etc. Well if I wanted to see useless players play with big hearts, I'd go to Eircom League games every Friday night. But no. I want to see the best teams play against each other. I don't want to see a final between Porto and Panathenaikos. I don't want to see Barcelona eliminated in the first round of a competition thanks to some heroic defending by the opposition or a bad refereeing decision or whatever. I don't care what anyone says - these one-off upsets are not what football is all about. Ask yourself this - did you prefer Euro 2004 or Euro 2008? Did you enjoy seeing the minnows of Greece triumph by defending very, very well, or did you enjoy seeing Spain pass their way to the winners podium?
Yes the group stages of the Champions League this year weren't very exciting, and virtually every team in the knock-out stages could have been predicted to be there from the get go. But that didn't mean that the lesser teams didn't have a chance. There was still room for excitement. Zenit St Petersburg could have ousted Real Madrid. Bordeaux could have beaten Chelsea. Arsenal could have lost to Dinamo Kiev. They didn't, but they could have.
The problem therefore is not in the format. The "problem" is that the good teams are better than the bad teams. Does that mean we should even out the playing field by trying to get more bad teams advancing further? No, of course not. They all had their chance in the group stages, but they weren't good enough to cause any upsets. And so what we have left is arguably the best selection of teams that the knock-out stage has seen. I mean do the people who yearn for the good ol' days want to maybe take Barcelona and Chelsea out of there and replace them with Basel and Steau Bucharest? Would that spice things up a bit? Me thinks not.
As far as I'm concerned, the current Champions League format is as good as can be, and the reforms being introduced next year to improve it will actually only serve to weaken it (more bad teams = worse quality, right?). I was thinking about ways to improve it last night, and all I could think of was the following, which has some fundamental flaws:
Instead of playing everybody twice in the group stages, you play them once, with the top two advancing. The remaining 16 teams are then put into four groups, and from there it basically becomes a prolonged (former) European Championships - 4 groups, play each other once, top 2 go through to the quarter finals etc. The problem of course arises with home and away games. There wouldn't be an even number in the group stages. That (substantial problem) aside however, I think such a format would be incredibly exciting, while at the same time allowing the cream to rise to the top. Agree?
But apart from that slightly whacky idea, I think there can be no improving on the present format. Yes there wasn't much to cheer about this time around, but remember when Utd finished last in their group? Or when Liverpool had to win their three remaining games to qualify? Or when Chelsea were in the same group as Barcelona? I just think people are humming this "the Champions League is a sham" tune for the sake of it, without actually taking into account the bigger picture. With the prospect of a sensational knock-out stage to come, it's all a bit premature really. One wonders what these same people will be saying if next February we get to see Chelsea v Barcelona on Tuesday night and Man Utd v Real Madrid on Wednesday, with highlights of Arsenal v Bayern Munich and Liverpool v Inter.
Anyway, the main reason I write is that there has been a lot of talk about the group stages this time around, with people pining for the days of old when it was either a competition strictly for champions, or a straight knock-out competition, or both. I have to say that I completely disagree with each and every one of these sentiments. Do people really want to see the Bulgarian champions play European football instead of Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea, Real Madrid, Villarreal? I hope not. We want to see the best teams play, and so if the fourth best English or Spanish team is better than the champion of an Eastern European league then so be it. (Of course there has to be limits, and I think top 4 is a suitable limit.)
It seems like people long for the days of cup upsets, where bin men and lorry drivers play in big matches and have a "great day out" etc etc. Well if I wanted to see useless players play with big hearts, I'd go to Eircom League games every Friday night. But no. I want to see the best teams play against each other. I don't want to see a final between Porto and Panathenaikos. I don't want to see Barcelona eliminated in the first round of a competition thanks to some heroic defending by the opposition or a bad refereeing decision or whatever. I don't care what anyone says - these one-off upsets are not what football is all about. Ask yourself this - did you prefer Euro 2004 or Euro 2008? Did you enjoy seeing the minnows of Greece triumph by defending very, very well, or did you enjoy seeing Spain pass their way to the winners podium?
Yes the group stages of the Champions League this year weren't very exciting, and virtually every team in the knock-out stages could have been predicted to be there from the get go. But that didn't mean that the lesser teams didn't have a chance. There was still room for excitement. Zenit St Petersburg could have ousted Real Madrid. Bordeaux could have beaten Chelsea. Arsenal could have lost to Dinamo Kiev. They didn't, but they could have.
The problem therefore is not in the format. The "problem" is that the good teams are better than the bad teams. Does that mean we should even out the playing field by trying to get more bad teams advancing further? No, of course not. They all had their chance in the group stages, but they weren't good enough to cause any upsets. And so what we have left is arguably the best selection of teams that the knock-out stage has seen. I mean do the people who yearn for the good ol' days want to maybe take Barcelona and Chelsea out of there and replace them with Basel and Steau Bucharest? Would that spice things up a bit? Me thinks not.
As far as I'm concerned, the current Champions League format is as good as can be, and the reforms being introduced next year to improve it will actually only serve to weaken it (more bad teams = worse quality, right?). I was thinking about ways to improve it last night, and all I could think of was the following, which has some fundamental flaws:
Instead of playing everybody twice in the group stages, you play them once, with the top two advancing. The remaining 16 teams are then put into four groups, and from there it basically becomes a prolonged (former) European Championships - 4 groups, play each other once, top 2 go through to the quarter finals etc. The problem of course arises with home and away games. There wouldn't be an even number in the group stages. That (substantial problem) aside however, I think such a format would be incredibly exciting, while at the same time allowing the cream to rise to the top. Agree?
But apart from that slightly whacky idea, I think there can be no improving on the present format. Yes there wasn't much to cheer about this time around, but remember when Utd finished last in their group? Or when Liverpool had to win their three remaining games to qualify? Or when Chelsea were in the same group as Barcelona? I just think people are humming this "the Champions League is a sham" tune for the sake of it, without actually taking into account the bigger picture. With the prospect of a sensational knock-out stage to come, it's all a bit premature really. One wonders what these same people will be saying if next February we get to see Chelsea v Barcelona on Tuesday night and Man Utd v Real Madrid on Wednesday, with highlights of Arsenal v Bayern Munich and Liverpool v Inter.
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Maths Can Be Fun...Kind Of
You'd think that topping the group would be the priority in the Champions League, right? Well, thanks to some less than scientific analysis, I've reasoned that it's actually in Arsenal's interest to come second (and hence United's too), which is quite possibly why Wenger has his kids playing tonight.
I've taken all of the group winners and runners up, and given them a number based on their position in their respective leagues. Of course it required some guess work as to who is going to finish where tonight, but I think my assumptions are fairly accurate. Here's how I think it will pan out (excl. Arsenal, Porto, and the teams Arsenal can't draw):
Group Winners
Roma = 13
Barcelona = 1
Panathenikos = 3
Lyon = 1
Juventus = 2
Runners-Up
Inter = 1
Sporting = 3
Athletico Madrid = 6
Villarreal = 2
Bayern Munich = 2
Real Madrid = 5
Simply put, the group of teams that has the lowest average score is the one you want to avoid, right?
Well, based on who Arsenal can meet in the next round, the group winners have a total of 20. Divide that by 5 and you get an average of 4. The runners-up have a total of 19, so divide that by 6 and you get 3.166. Therefore it's better for Arsenal to finish 2nd. It's a deeply flawed system I know, but I think it's actually pretty accurate. I mean you can pretty much tell it's right based on just looking at the two lists.
However, should Man Utd be aware of this, then it's actually in their interest to finish where Arsenal finish. Since they can't draw the Gunners in the next round regardless, they're much better off giving themselves the chance to draw Porto.
For Arsenal, they're better off finishing second no matter where Utd finish.
The argument that Roma adding 13 points to the group winners total is an aberration is fair one, but I think that's mainly balanced out by the fact that Panathenikos are a dream ticket, and Lyon play in the French League, and they've yet to cause the big boys any trouble in past tournaments.
The more I've written, the more I've become aware that this make very little sense, but the bottom line is that Arsenal, and consequently Man Utd, should finish second. And for the neutral, that would mean a 50% chance of seeing Barcelona play one of the English teams in the next round. Wouldn't that be exciting? As dull as the group stages have been at times, I think we're in for a cracking knock-out stage, and I can't wait until the draw takes place on Friday week.
I've taken all of the group winners and runners up, and given them a number based on their position in their respective leagues. Of course it required some guess work as to who is going to finish where tonight, but I think my assumptions are fairly accurate. Here's how I think it will pan out (excl. Arsenal, Porto, and the teams Arsenal can't draw):
Group Winners
Roma = 13
Barcelona = 1
Panathenikos = 3
Lyon = 1
Juventus = 2
Runners-Up
Inter = 1
Sporting = 3
Athletico Madrid = 6
Villarreal = 2
Bayern Munich = 2
Real Madrid = 5
Simply put, the group of teams that has the lowest average score is the one you want to avoid, right?
Well, based on who Arsenal can meet in the next round, the group winners have a total of 20. Divide that by 5 and you get an average of 4. The runners-up have a total of 19, so divide that by 6 and you get 3.166. Therefore it's better for Arsenal to finish 2nd. It's a deeply flawed system I know, but I think it's actually pretty accurate. I mean you can pretty much tell it's right based on just looking at the two lists.
However, should Man Utd be aware of this, then it's actually in their interest to finish where Arsenal finish. Since they can't draw the Gunners in the next round regardless, they're much better off giving themselves the chance to draw Porto.
For Arsenal, they're better off finishing second no matter where Utd finish.
The argument that Roma adding 13 points to the group winners total is an aberration is fair one, but I think that's mainly balanced out by the fact that Panathenikos are a dream ticket, and Lyon play in the French League, and they've yet to cause the big boys any trouble in past tournaments.
The more I've written, the more I've become aware that this make very little sense, but the bottom line is that Arsenal, and consequently Man Utd, should finish second. And for the neutral, that would mean a 50% chance of seeing Barcelona play one of the English teams in the next round. Wouldn't that be exciting? As dull as the group stages have been at times, I think we're in for a cracking knock-out stage, and I can't wait until the draw takes place on Friday week.
Thursday, November 27, 2008
Gourcuff
If you haven't heard of Yoann Gourcuff, or if you've only heard the name but never seen him in action, then check out these two clips from last night's game against Chelsea:
Making a fool out of JT (the replay at the end shows it beautifully)
The New New Zidane?
I only saw the highlights, but he looked very, very impressive. I'll be damned if Milan don't take him back, or if he doesn't find himself in the Premier League having secured a £120m transfer to Man City. The boy has talent, no question. Whether he has what it takes to be up there with the best remains to be seen, but lets hope so.
Making a fool out of JT (the replay at the end shows it beautifully)
The New New Zidane?
I only saw the highlights, but he looked very, very impressive. I'll be damned if Milan don't take him back, or if he doesn't find himself in the Premier League having secured a £120m transfer to Man City. The boy has talent, no question. Whether he has what it takes to be up there with the best remains to be seen, but lets hope so.
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