The State of the Season

We’re now into that period of the season Sir Alex is fond of calling “squeaky bum time”. Forgetting that the phrase sounds like a chilling announcement one might hear in the prison shower rooms, I intend to examine the prospects of those whose bums are to be the squeakiest for the next couple of months.

We start with the title race.

As I mentioned in one of my few posts this season, the title race has been a bit of a farce in terms of media coverage. Arsenal have been in and out of it three times now, and who’s to say a fourth is out of the question? The bottom line is that papers need to be sold and web pages need to be hit, so an article detailing the demise of Arsenal followed by an article lauding Wenger for building a team from nothing and raising a title challenge from the dead (or, as can be recently seen on The Guardian's Website, an article talking about the death of Italian football followed by an article talking about the imminent death of most of Chelsea's aging players) sells more papers than something measured but necessarily inconclusive. We want instant gratification like “out of the race” and “back in the race” and “best player in the world”. We want clean propositional truths, not the messiness of narrative, but the way this season has gone, only a messy narrative can do justice to the events that have unfolded.

All three teams at the top are far from complete. Manchester United have often looked vulnerable in defense (especially away from home) and unimaginative in midfield, yet they lead the way and are my favourites to win the league title. They are quite boring to watch -- unless you like watching people whip crosses into the box ad nauseum -- but they are extremely effective. As with all of Ferguson’s teams, this one has a belief that defies their ability. They do not know their own limitations, therefore they continue to punch above their weight with tremendous success. These may sound like back-handed compliments, but I genuinely admire what this team is able to achieve with its current resources.

There is an ad campaign for the Irish rugby team with the slogan “Belief or nothing”. While belief may not be everything, it is fundamental to success; it is the starting point of any victory. This season’s potential triumph will be one of Ferguson’s greatest achievements as a manager, because it will have been born of the Scotsman’s unrelenting belief in players like Park, Fletcher, Valencia, and even old timers like Scholes and Giggs. Hats off, I say.

I still hate them, though.

Next in line are Chelsea. I have had serious reservations about this Chelsea team all season, starting with my prediction of them finishing outside the top 4 (you can stop laughing now). I then inexplicably predicted them to win the Champions league a third of the way through the season, only to suggest that they will win absolutely nothing shortly after. (I even foretold of their loss to Inter in the Champions League, which perhaps balances out my more outlandish prediction of a fifth place finish.) So what now?

My reservations have not waned, and I make Chelsea favourites for third place. Not because of some knock-on effect thanks to the Champions League; in fact their exit might actually help their chances in the league. They simply have too many passengers on the team. Anelka, Ballack, Mikel, and even Lampard have been carried through large spells of this season. Then there is the "flair" of the team, absent due to the pitiful form of Joe Cole and Deco, and the erratic nature of Florent Malouda.

In short, this is not a team. Their captain is a pseudo-leader, a man so determined to lead that he is unfit for the role. There have been rays of light, of course. Ashley Cole, despite himself, has been imperious all season. Drogba is a constant threat, and his goals (and assists) have kept Chelsea where they are. Ivanovic has been nothing if not consistent, and a surprising attacking force on Chelsea’s otherwise barren right wing. But their problems run deep, as suggested by the apparent overhaul about to take place this summer. The question now is whether Ancelotti is the man to rebuild the squad. For one reason or another he never did this at A.C. Milan, with the Italians now reaping the whirlwind of this negligence. Can the left-eyebrow-raising manager suddenly engineer a renovation of Chelsea? And can he do so with instant success? I remain sceptical.

Arsenal and Wenger on the other hand have been renovating for four years, with nothing tangible to show for it in terms of silverware but with plenty to commend it in terms of business savvy and aesthetics. Could this be the season when that all-important component is added - on-field success? In a word, yes. Their destiny is not in their own hands, but this will actually better suit the Gunners . They are not very good leaders, but they have proven this season that they are capable of capitalising on the slip-ups made by those ahead of them. The longer Arsenal remain within a one (or two) result swing of top spot the better for them, but of course at some point United and Chelsea will have to drop points and Arsenal will have to move into first place. The game between the current top two might be one such point. A draw in that tie would be the ideal result for Arsenal at this moment in time.

Almost as important as points won and lost will be goal difference. Arsenal are currently 8 goals behind Man Utd and 4 behind Chelsea. Given their favourable run in this is not an insurmountable deficit, and to overcome it will be worth a point, or .000000000001 of a point. Scraping out narrow wins might not be enough for Arsenal, even if they get 8 more of them. But as a plus, they may well be reunited with Robin van Persie for about half of those 8 games, so the goals might come easier as well as the wins. And with Arshavin looking more like the player of last season and Fabregas back to fitness, the unlikely is still very much possible.

I predicted Arsenal to win the league in my first post this season. Far be it from me to repent of that prophecy in the midst of squeaky bum time.



Next Up: The Champions League