The Rock and a Hard Place

It looks as if Rafa Benitez is going to stay at Liverpool for the foreseeable future. If I was a Liverpool fan I would not be happy about this one bit.

This week Eamonn Dunphy -- not a man given to wild, unfounded statements -- likened Benitez to Houllier. A touch harsh perhaps, but there is some truth in the comparison. The truth being that neither has any eye for talent. In Rafa's case I'd go even further and say that he doesn't actually want talent. He wants players who work hard, run around a lot, and do exactly what their told. He wants a team of Dirk Kuyt's.

Yes he has bought some good players -- Alonso, Skrtel, and Torres (though I don't think Torres is even that great) -- but there have been countless other players who have come and gone during Rafa's reign who should never have set foot on Anfield soil. Part of the struggle with the board seemed to be based on transfer power, and if this was so then I am fully behind Rick Parry's decision to stop Rafa from having the "control" that he appears to be so obsessed with in all facets of life. Benitez has proved himself incapable of building a good squad in his last 5 years at the club; there is little to suggest that the next 5 will produce better fruit.

In one-off games Liverpool are deadly, especially when playing against technically superior opponents. They are the kryptonite to your Superman, the fire extinguisher to your fire, the Mascherano to your Messi. They do not create good football; they destroy it, and emerge triumphant from the wreckage. They are one of the most boring teams to watch, and not one of their players gets me excited, with the possible exception of Xabi Alonso (his half-way line effort against Madrid was astounding).

Am I anti-Liverpool? Too right am I, because Liverpool are anti-football. It's a measure of my dislike for them that I'm actually not sure if I want them to pip United to the league. Actually you know what - I don't. I really don't. To quote General Francis Hummel, "damn you for forcing me into this position," Rafa.

Champions League Reaction

4 of the 8 games in this weeks Champions League had winners; 3 of those 4 winners were English teams. And yet, it is still conceivable for all four English teams to crash out. Improbable, but by no means impossible.

All four ties involving the Big Four still hang in the balance, though their dominance was plainly visible on Tuesday and Wednesday night (with the exception of Chelsea). Inter -- top of the Italian league by 9 points -- were once again shown up for the second-rate chumps that they are (which was just about the only prediction I got right). Their midfield is void of creativity, and their attack is void of nothing, what with a rotund Adriano taking up all the space. However, though United are favourites to progress, is it really beyond Inter to sneak a goal and defend like crazy? Not under Mourinho, that's for sure.

Liverpool bored their way to another victory, these time defeating the equally boring Real Madrid. However, should Robben decide to hit the target at Anfield then one goal from Madrid makes the outcome of this tie far from certain. Madrid are an awful team of course, but then so are Liverpool, yet that's never stopped them from getting unlikely results. My advice, stay clear of this game and watch the Chelsea-Juve clash. Could be your last chance to see Pavel Nedved in action.

Speaking of Chelsea-Juve, this was apparently the match of the round. A 1-0 win at home is a good result, but by all accounts Juve were the better team for large portions of the game, and this with Tiago and Sissoko in midfield. Bearing in mind that Chelsea lost 3-1 the last time they visited Italy, the outcome of this match is far from a foregone conclusion. Could this be the end of the Chelsea team as we know it? Don't bet against it.

Arsenal also won 1-0 at home, and of the four English teams they would be the ones I would be most confident of progressing, especially given the way they play away from home (cast your mind back to them outplaying Liverpool at Anfield last season and going 1 up, albeit with a slightly better midfield). I wouldn't be surprised if they beat Roma in Rome, but then again Roma do have a good record against English opposition at home, having just beaten Chelsea 3-1 in this year's competition. But then again, Arsenal have a good record in Italy, so who knows? Along with the Chelsea-Juve game this should be the neutrals choice come the second legs, so don't blame me after you watch United scrape a 1-0 win and see Liverpool grind out a 0-0 draw.

My predicitions (because I know you want them): Arsenal and Chelsea to go through, United and Liverpool to go out*.


* I say this because I am a firm believer that playing the second leg away from home is to your advantage. You know what you need to do, and if you need to get an away goal then it's not too late. Remember that games are not dicated by the crowd; they're dictated by how you approach them. Knowing what you need to do away from home gives you options - protect when you need to protect, go gung-ho when you need to score. Playing the away game first leaves things unsure. I'm sure there are those who disagree (like UEFA for example) so feel free to say as much in the comments section.

Predictions

I wanted to do a really cool prediction post for the Champions League, but I'm going to do this instead. Besides, predictions are difficult to make interesting since at the end of the day all they are is pure subjective speculation, so what's the point in putting effort into them?

With regards the ties I care about, here are my thoughts. I think Inter Milan will once again be shown up for the second rate team that they are, and will be beaten comprehensively by United over the two legs. Tonight's game might be tight, but I expect United to win comfortably at Old Trafford, so I'm gonna say 4-1 on aggregate.

Liverpool will probably lose tonight, but I think they may just scrape though over the two legs. Ramos says that he's looking for 3 goals at home, and if they get them (and there is a decent chance of this happening) then of course they will probably go through. But anything less and I'd fancy Liverpool. Anfield, European night, etc etc.

Chelsea will go through with ease. I just can't see Juventus posing them any real problems. Why? Conjecture, that's why.

Arsenal v Roma depends a lot on tonight and what kind of Arsenal show up. They can't score in the league, so if this form translates to Europe then they're screwed...obviously. Also, they're young midfield could be extremely nervous without the cool head of Fabregas to steady the ship. To be honest I wouldn't be confident with any prediction for this match, so in the words of Dunphy, "I'm not gonna spoof ya, Bill".

Barcelona will lose to Lyon tonight. There, I said it. This could arguably be the tie of the round, but over the two legs I expect Barca will go through, with an aggregate score of 9-8 or something like that.

And as for eventual winners, try Arsenal on for size. They may not get past Roma, but if they do they will have some important players returning thereafter, and could end up putting all their eggs into the Champions League sponsored basket. If you are so inclined, 16/1 looks a tasty bet, especially considering that 4 of United, Liverpool, Chelsea, Barcelona, Lyon, Madrid, Barcelona and Juventus will be no more come the next round.

Average Joe's

Paddy Power have already paid out on United winning the treble, which while a little silly is at the same time hard to argue with. If you don't concede goals, then who is going to stop you? Winning the quadruple is actually an extreme possibility for this current United squad, but my question is this: Will they be winning all of these trophies with one of the most average group of midfielders that a successful team has ever had?

There can be no denying United's defensive excellence, whilst an attack boasting Ronaldo, Rooney, and Berbatov is devastating (in theory at least). However, their midfield regularly consists of three of the following players: Carrick, Fletcher, Giggs, Scholes, Nani, Park, Anderson. Bear in mind that Giggs and Scholes are not who they used to be (despite what most people are saying).

For me, that is such a middle-of-the-road midfield. Does anyone on that list get you excited? Scholes in his day was an exquisite player, but he has been shown up in any big games he has played this season, with Ferguson hauling him off early against both Liverpool and Chelsea. Carrick is seen as the creative lynchpin, but I can't help but think of all of the important games I've seen Carrick disappear in. Against a good midfield his shortcomings are there to see. And even though the friendly against Spain recently wasn't important (although imagine how important it would have been had England won), it was notable that Carrick was way out of his depth. Excusers will say that he wasn't surrounded by the calibre of players he finds himself amongst at Man Utd, but are Barry, Lampard and Wright-Phillips really that much worse than Fletcher, Park, and Giggs?

The point I'm trying to make is that what United look set to accomplish is absolutely astounding. Should Barcelona win the treble (La Liga, Copa del Rey and CL), it will be very easy to point to their players and say "That's why". As I've said before, Iniesta and Xavi are the two best midfielders around, and it will come as no surprise if they are part of a successful team. The same simply cannot be said about any of United's midfield players, so what is their secret? I'll be watching them in the Champions League next week so maybe I'll find out then.

By way of closing, here is a statistic related to the above: Outside of their front three, United's highest scorer in the League is Vidic with 4 goals.

Goals Masking Flaws

Is it just me or does anyone else find it incredibly hypocritical of Emmanuel Adebayor to say that Arsenal need to win a trophy this year, when he himself hasn't really looked like he has given a crap about winning anything since August?

If ever there was a case to be built that scoring goals can mask serious flaws, then Adebayor (and Anelka) would surely make for good test subjects. Though Premier League Fantasy Football is hardly the definitive measuring stick of success in a season, one would imagine it reflects a players worth pretty accurately. Adebayor proves this isn't always the case, what with him being the 5th most potent striker (points wise) in the league, only 13 points off top spot and only 5 points adrift of partner in crime Robin van Persie (who has been streets ahead of the Togo international in terms of value this season).

I wrote in to F365 during those long summer months of 2008 saying that Arsenal should swipe the hand off A.C. Milan if their interest in Abedayor was legitimate, and it appears it was...or at least someone's interest was. Figures nearing £30m were being talked about, which would have been fantastic business from an Arsenal perspective, and this after a season in which Adebayor scored over 30 goals (I think; I couldn't be bothered checking the exact number). For me, he simply has too many fundamental flaws to be worthy of a place in a side that at least in theory should be aiming to win the league.

I won't go into a prolonged discourse about Adebayor's shortcomings, but suffice to say that he isn't clinical enough, he doesn't defend from the front very well, and he is always offside. He has some value to Arsenal mind, what with his towering presence and his unpredictability. He gives the team a different option (i.e. hoof it up to Adebayor) which can be the game breaker when playing the likes of Bolton etc. But then so does Bendtner. And Bendtner at least tries.

Adebayor, in his recent interview which I elluded to earlier, said "I don't care if I stop on 12 goals if we win something with the club". This is actually inadvertently good advice from the big man. Wenger should stop Adebayor from scoring goals by benching him, thus giving Arsenal a higher chance of winning something this season. In Eduardo, Arshavin, van Persie, and Bendtner I think Arsenal possess more than enough potency up front without having to accomodate their 12-goals-and-yet-still-disappointing striker.

Here's Hoping...

Words cannot express how much I hope the following will come to fruition.

A Lucky General or a Good One?

As of today, Aston Villa are third in the league, 7 points above fifth place Arsenal and 5 points behind first place Man United. That really is quite incredible. However, a defining period in their season is about to unfold over the next 2 months or so. Forgetting about the UEFA cup and the F.A. Cup, in that space of time Aston Villa play the following teams: Chelsea, Stoke, Man City, Tottenham, Liverpool, Man Utd, Everton, and West Ham. In other words, 6 of the top 10 plus Spurs and Stoke (whom they have lost to already this season).

That is one hell of a fixture list, and one can't help but think that either Villa will be top at the end of it, or they will find their place in the top 4 under severe threat, be it from Arsenal or possibly Everton.

Such a fixture list is potentially of huge benefit to the Gunners, who must capitalise if they are serious about qualifying for the Champions League next season. Either Villa will be taking points off Liverpool and Chelsea, or Chelsea and Liverpool will be taking points off Villa. At this stage of the season either of those scenarios should be welcomed by Wenger, so if Arsenal can start scoring goals again as their creative players return from injury and so forth there could be an almighty scramble for that much coveted 4th place spot between the teams currently residing in 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th place.

Forgetting all of that, this period will nonetheless be a very interesting study on just how good Villa acually are. Are they capable of going to Anfield and Old Trafford and getting something? We shall see.

Dembele

While reading about the rise of Belgian football, I came across the following goal. It was scored by Moussa Dembele, and it's really quite something (although there is a bit at the end where I think he might be trying to pass the ball to his nearby teammate, but I could be wrong). Anyway, enjoy.

Moussa Dembele's Goal

Valeron

A few important things happened in the world of football in January 2009. Kaka refused to join Manchester City, Man Utd didn't concede any league goals...despite John O'Shea regularly appearing in defense, and David Beckham made a big splash in Milan, providing further evidence that Serie A is most definitely in decline.

However, one thing you will not hear about is the return of "Spain's Zidane" after roughly 3 years of injury. That's right - Spain have a Zidane...or at least had one up until January 2006, which is when Juan Carlos Valeron made his last start for Not-so-super-anymoreDepor. But a couple of weekends ago the man they call El Flaco -- the Skinny One -- made a triumphant return to league action against Real Madrid. He was on the wrong end of a 1-0 scoreline, but victory was his nonetheless as he completed 90 minutes of football without keeling over. I watched the game for no other reason than to see him play, and as bad a game as it was (Gago was probably the best player on the pitch, which kind of tells its own story) it's a game I will have fond memories of for years to come.

There are couple of players I have serious man-crushes on. Riquelme is one of them, and Valeron is the other. If I were to pick a favourite though, it would have to be the magician from Spain. He plays the game of football almost exactly the way I like to see it played. Sure he doesn't run around a lot, he doesn't get 'stuck in', he can drift in and out of games, and in these high tempo days he is almost a luxury one can't afford. Almost. Because even though Valeron doesn't offer you some of the attributes almost deemed essential today, his is still the best passer of a football you are likely to see in your lifetime. Better than Fabregas, better than Zidane, better than Riquelme, better than Pirlo.

Though he was understandably a little off the pace against Madrid -- although when has he not been off the pace? -- El Flaco still conjured up some magic moments, with a flick here and a feint there. Partnered with a better striker in front of him he most surely would have had an assist or two to his name, such was his threat with the ball at his feet and space to exploit. The weight he puts on each pass is judged to perfection, from a simple ball out to the wing to a incisive through pass which leaves even the best of defenses for dead. Initiate a 1-2 with Valeron and you can almost guarantee that the '2' will come off to perfection, without you even having to break stride. His passing technique is something you just can't teach anyone, and after watching him for 90 minutes a couple of Sunday's ago, it is apparently something you can't lose either, even after 3 years of knee-related turmoil.

I first saw him perform when Deportivo came to Highbury back in 01/02. This was a special Depor team, nicknamed SuperDepor both because of their success and the manner in which they acheived it. They were playing against a much fancied Arsenal side, but the Spaniards completely outshone the Gunners, even gaining a standing ovation from the Highbury faithful as they exited stage left. As I watched the game, I couldn't help but marvel at the guy controlling everything at his own pace, playing passes that didn't seem physically possible to execute, and generally just giving Viera an co the run-around...without really running around. I remember my brother coming into the sitting room about 30 minutes into the game and me telling him to "watch this guy...this Valeron chap" (I might not have used the word "chap",but you get my point). This all may sound like sentimental garbage, but it's the absolute truth. Perhaps it's both. I was just immediately enamored with his style of play, willing his teammates to pass him the ball at any semi-available opportunity, just to see what he could do next.

SuperDepor claimed other notable scalps during their heyday, with Valeron being the key to their quite brilliant football. In a recent interview he himself mentions one of their most outstanding achievements, coming from 4-1 down to beat Milan 5-4 on aggregate and gaining a place in the Champions League semi-final (where they lost to eventual winners Porto). But the victory over Milan still has its place in football folklore. It was a masterclass in possession football, with even Luque chipping in with a good performance. They got the required goals with 15 minutes to spare, but what was equally impressive was their keeping the scoreline at 4-0, barely allowing Milan to get a sniff of the ball. It was a truly remarkable game of football, and served as a microcosm for what SuperDepor were all about; what Juan Carlos Valeron is all about.

I look around the world of football today, and I see few artists of his calibre. The attributes which he possesses -- vision, control, incisive passing -- seem to have been marginalised to some extent. The emphasis now is on speed, power, and being some sort of jack-of-all-trades who could conceivably play at centre-half or upfront if given the right coaching. You can have the touch of a rapist, but as long as you have the pace of a gazelle then you'll do.

Valeron will never go down as one of the greats, despite Roy Mackaay saying he's the best player he has ever played with. He never won a big trophy, and he never quite made it at international level, with coaches unwilling to trust his talent. Deportivo did however, and they flourished as a result. His injury coincided with them plummeting down the league, but now that he's back they are a top half team once more, with a rebirth in the Champions League only 3 points away. At 33 Valeron surely doesn't have much left in the tank, but given his style of play there is at least another season or two in him. No doubt that his retirement will make as much of a splash in the media as his comeback from injury, but personally speaking I can't think of a player I'll be sadder to see leave the game the Valeron.

Back In White

This blog has never really been interested in discussing relegation-threatened teams -- or pretty much anyone outside the top 5 for that matter -- but in Spurs' case its willing to make an exception. There are three deadline-day deals that catch my eye, and many that I could not care less about. One of those eye catching deals involves the aforementioned Tottenham Hotspurs, with the other two involving Arsenal and Chelsea.

Much has been written about Robbie Keane in recent months. I jumped on the bandwagon back in December, saying that he should never have moved to Liverpool in the first place. Rafa Benitez just does not play the kind of football that suits the unpredictable Keane. The ever-present Dirk Kuyt is proof of this.

That's not to say that Robbie was merely the innocent victim of 'round peg in a square hole' syndrome. Yes he was that, but he was also a terribly inept round peg during his at times comical stint in Merseyside. There were one too many games where you wouldn't actually know that Robbie Keane was on the football pitch until you saw him either mis-kicking the ball or being hauled off after 68 minutes with a surprisingly puzzled look on his face. I'm sure all those times he brushed shoulders with Dirk Kuyt as he made his way to the bench did little to help his rapidly decreasing confidence, and it showed in his performances.

Did he try too hard? Is he just not good enough for a big 4 club? Did he need more time? Who knows? All we do know is that he had his shot and he blew it. He dubs the whole fiasco a "mistake", and I think he's right. For me, going to Liverpool under Benitez will always be a mistake. I'm willing to go on record and say that Chelsea will still be United's biggest threat, even though they themselves are looking a bit rubbish. I'd even give Arsenal and Villa a decent chance of finishing ahead of Liverpool, so little confidence do I have in the Reds' title challenge.

But that's beside the point. Keane is back at his old club, which I think was the only place for him to go, even though I still don't think he'll do very well. He needs a target man alongside him, and Defoe is quite clearly not that man. I know he's out injured, but he won't be gone forever, and so ultimately Harry has just added more confusion to an already confused squad. And what's more, Keane is not a like for like replacement for Defoe. If anything Keane is more Modric than Defoe, so it will be interesting to see the dynamic of the Spurs team this Sunday in the North London Derby. They'll probably have to play another striker alongside Keane, so there could be goals aplenty in White Heart Lane, with another 4-4 a definitely possibility if Arsenal can sort out their creative problems.

One man who may or may not sort those out is Andrei Arshavin, but I'll leave that discussion for another post.

In other news, Queresma has signed for Chelsea in a 6 month loan deal. Dunphy would call him "Ronaldo Lite", and I'd have to agree. He is something along the lines of what Chelsea need, but to be honest I don't really rate him at all. Can't be any worse than Malouda I suppose though. Against all reason I do have some sneaky feeling that he might do OK, at least in the short-term. He has some of the attributes that make a player effective, but he also has a large amount that make a player an idiot. Which of these attributes will win out is anyones guess, but I'm prediciting a success story. Just don't ask me why.