I was going to do a predictions post for tonight's game, but instead here are 50 goals scored by Lionel Messi. Worth watching.
Saturday, August 29, 2009
Saturday, August 22, 2009
Preliminary Thoughts Pt 3
Manchester United
If you expose yourself to football-based media and form opinions on the basis of what the general consensus is, you may find it difficult to decide on how United will do this season. In F365's season forecast, the Old Trafford lot were most writers' pick to get their hands on the trophy in May 2010, and yet in the past week the site has been largely critical of the state of this United squad. Lawro of the BBC is sticking with the Red Devils (though you can tell he's not convinced), while most others think they will be there or thereabouts. But then in steps Paul Doyle of the Guardian, predicting a 5th of 6th place finish for last season's champions, a prediction made before the first two games of the season might I add. My own foresight caused me to proclaim them runners-up, which was really just a more precise way of saying that I don't see them winning the thing.
From my own experience, there are United fans who fall into such opposing camps: those who are bullish about the quality of the squad, insisting that Michael Owen will come good etc, and those who bemoan the regression to stone-age tactics, and who hope rather than think that Owen will be prolific.
In a nail-my-colours-to-the-mast maneuver, I'm going to say with Paul Doyle that this United squad is the worst of the Big 4. It is a team running on fumes; the fumes of reputation and a winning mentality that doesn't easily go away. Such fumes are potent, no doubt, which is why I think many people predicted United to emerge victorious at the end of the season. But the reality is that the quality just isn't there, at least not in large quantities.
No disrespect to Darren Fletcher -- a player who has proved me quite wrong -- but when he is your best midfielder, something has gone awry. Rooney is a gifted footballer, but he's not the kind of footballer who can carry a team on his own. Unlike Ronaldo, Rooney needs good players around him to interchange with. Ronaldo is a guy who can pick the ball up, run around somebody, and then whack the ball into the roof of the net from 25 yards. Rooney is just not that guy. He does his best work in tandem, but he's lacking a partner. Perhaps Berbatov will emerge as the one, but all of the evidence thus far suggests otherwise.
Ferguson has said that he won't be spending any more money on strikers. If he buys an attacking midfielder then that would be a huge boost, but if he chooses to buy neither then where are the goals going to come from? How often will Rooney be winning headers from crosses, which is how United scored their first and only goal of the season? In terms of attacking prowess, it's all looking a bit bleak really.
United's cushion is their defensive quality. Though they don't have Arsenal's attacking flair, a strong defensive platform will be sufficient for picking off a team like the Gunners. But the simple fact is that most of the games United play will require little defending and much attacking. They're equipped for the former, but not so much for the latter.
It's a long season, and with the transfer market not closed yet it's still possible that Ferguson will address the rather obvious problems. The problem as I perceive it, however, is that in Fergie's mind he has addressed the problems. Owen, Valencia, Nani and Macheda represent his collective solution to the loss of Tevez and Ronaldo. But not only is this solution wholly inadequate, it also fails to take into account the state of affairs last season. With Ronaldo and Tevez in the squad, United were still far from excellent. Liverpool were the best team in England for the majority of the season, and it was clear to some people before the Champions League final, and most people after, that United were light on quality in midfield. If Ferguson kept hold of his £100m+ duo, there were still areas that required attention. He didn't keep hold of them, so all he's done is replace them with a less than adequate solution, making United far worse than they were last season -- a season when they were already skating on thin ice.
Put the terms "defensive midfielder" and "Big 4 club need" together and the usual team to crop up is Arsenal. But is it not the case that United need one far more than Arsenal do? They also need either a central midfielder who can do Carrick's job better than he himself can, or else an attacking midfielder to shoulder much of the creative burden. Get both of those types of players and Manchester United should be back in business. Get neither and Paul Doyle's controversial prediction may not seem quite so foolish in a few months time.
If you expose yourself to football-based media and form opinions on the basis of what the general consensus is, you may find it difficult to decide on how United will do this season. In F365's season forecast, the Old Trafford lot were most writers' pick to get their hands on the trophy in May 2010, and yet in the past week the site has been largely critical of the state of this United squad. Lawro of the BBC is sticking with the Red Devils (though you can tell he's not convinced), while most others think they will be there or thereabouts. But then in steps Paul Doyle of the Guardian, predicting a 5th of 6th place finish for last season's champions, a prediction made before the first two games of the season might I add. My own foresight caused me to proclaim them runners-up, which was really just a more precise way of saying that I don't see them winning the thing.
From my own experience, there are United fans who fall into such opposing camps: those who are bullish about the quality of the squad, insisting that Michael Owen will come good etc, and those who bemoan the regression to stone-age tactics, and who hope rather than think that Owen will be prolific.
In a nail-my-colours-to-the-mast maneuver, I'm going to say with Paul Doyle that this United squad is the worst of the Big 4. It is a team running on fumes; the fumes of reputation and a winning mentality that doesn't easily go away. Such fumes are potent, no doubt, which is why I think many people predicted United to emerge victorious at the end of the season. But the reality is that the quality just isn't there, at least not in large quantities.
No disrespect to Darren Fletcher -- a player who has proved me quite wrong -- but when he is your best midfielder, something has gone awry. Rooney is a gifted footballer, but he's not the kind of footballer who can carry a team on his own. Unlike Ronaldo, Rooney needs good players around him to interchange with. Ronaldo is a guy who can pick the ball up, run around somebody, and then whack the ball into the roof of the net from 25 yards. Rooney is just not that guy. He does his best work in tandem, but he's lacking a partner. Perhaps Berbatov will emerge as the one, but all of the evidence thus far suggests otherwise.
Ferguson has said that he won't be spending any more money on strikers. If he buys an attacking midfielder then that would be a huge boost, but if he chooses to buy neither then where are the goals going to come from? How often will Rooney be winning headers from crosses, which is how United scored their first and only goal of the season? In terms of attacking prowess, it's all looking a bit bleak really.
United's cushion is their defensive quality. Though they don't have Arsenal's attacking flair, a strong defensive platform will be sufficient for picking off a team like the Gunners. But the simple fact is that most of the games United play will require little defending and much attacking. They're equipped for the former, but not so much for the latter.
It's a long season, and with the transfer market not closed yet it's still possible that Ferguson will address the rather obvious problems. The problem as I perceive it, however, is that in Fergie's mind he has addressed the problems. Owen, Valencia, Nani and Macheda represent his collective solution to the loss of Tevez and Ronaldo. But not only is this solution wholly inadequate, it also fails to take into account the state of affairs last season. With Ronaldo and Tevez in the squad, United were still far from excellent. Liverpool were the best team in England for the majority of the season, and it was clear to some people before the Champions League final, and most people after, that United were light on quality in midfield. If Ferguson kept hold of his £100m+ duo, there were still areas that required attention. He didn't keep hold of them, so all he's done is replace them with a less than adequate solution, making United far worse than they were last season -- a season when they were already skating on thin ice.
Put the terms "defensive midfielder" and "Big 4 club need" together and the usual team to crop up is Arsenal. But is it not the case that United need one far more than Arsenal do? They also need either a central midfielder who can do Carrick's job better than he himself can, or else an attacking midfielder to shoulder much of the creative burden. Get both of those types of players and Manchester United should be back in business. Get neither and Paul Doyle's controversial prediction may not seem quite so foolish in a few months time.
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Tinkering May Have Worked
Either Carlo Ancelotti reads this blog, or he's a pretty good football manager. My ego tells me it's the former, everything else suggests the latter.
I didn't see Chelsea's dismantling of Sunderland, but Ancelotti appears to have continued from where he left off against Hull - the process of adaptation. Basically everything I complained about was addressed. Mikel was removed, with Lampard reverting back to where he is most effective. Malouda was replaced which the more reliable Ballack, and Anelka was relieved of his lone striker duties in favour of the more busy, more creative Deco. A scoreline of 3-1 hints that the tinkering may have worked.
Of course we're only two games into the season. This time last season I recall Scolari being hailed as the answer to Chelsea's problems, with Deco shining as the "missing piece of the puzzle". Is Ancelotti just quickly morphing his team into the one that was initially successful for Big Phil, but was eventually found out as an impostor? Perhaps, but with Didier Drogba looking like he's gives a so-and-so, this Chelsea team may not drop out of the top four after all [!].
I didn't see Chelsea's dismantling of Sunderland, but Ancelotti appears to have continued from where he left off against Hull - the process of adaptation. Basically everything I complained about was addressed. Mikel was removed, with Lampard reverting back to where he is most effective. Malouda was replaced which the more reliable Ballack, and Anelka was relieved of his lone striker duties in favour of the more busy, more creative Deco. A scoreline of 3-1 hints that the tinkering may have worked.
Of course we're only two games into the season. This time last season I recall Scolari being hailed as the answer to Chelsea's problems, with Deco shining as the "missing piece of the puzzle". Is Ancelotti just quickly morphing his team into the one that was initially successful for Big Phil, but was eventually found out as an impostor? Perhaps, but with Didier Drogba looking like he's gives a so-and-so, this Chelsea team may not drop out of the top four after all [!].
Monday, August 17, 2009
Preliminary Thoughts Pt 2
Arsenal
Another classic case of "were X that good or were Y just so bad?", and another cliched answer - a little bit of both. Arsenal lined up as expected, although Bendtner was arguably more defensively deployed than what is usual for someone in that front three. The other surprise in relation to Bendtner was how well he played. One of my guilty opinions is that I rate the arrogant Dane quite highly (though not nearly as highly as Nicholas Bendtner rates the arrogant Dane). Last season he scored something in the region of 14 goals, which was very good considering he was Arsenal's fourth choice front man when everyone was fit...which they never were. Even so, fourth choice suggests a lack of trustworthiness; 14 goals suggests otherwise. This could be a milestone season for the promising youngster, because injuries or no injuries, he's going to get games.
The other two surprises from Arsenal's 6-1 demolition of Everton were the central midfielders Song and Denilson. The former was particularly impressive, showing bite in the tackle as well as composure in possession. He's the reason I said in my predictions post that Arsenal don't urgently need a defensive midfielder (although some cover for him would be nice). I think Song can be for Arsenal what Toure is for Barcelona: a good ball winner and a good ball player. The Cameroonian has what every midfield player needs to have, and what I think Denilson still lacks - presence. What he needs now is to be consistently present to the point where a good Alex Song performance is not a surprise, but an expectation. He has the ability, but does he have the focus and determination to produce this sort of thing every week? This will be one of the key storylines this season.
Another encouraging aspect from Saturday's game -- and this is a sort of backhanded encouragement -- was that Arsenal won well without Arshavin playing well. Half the Russian's passes went astray, and things in general didn't work for him. There'll be days like this, of course. Still, that's the benefit of having such an array of attacking talent. A player like Arshavin can have an off day, but the likes of Fabregas and Van Persie can step up to the plate. When you think that Nasri, Rosicky and Walcott are still to come back, tihs Arsenal team will be an attacking force to be reckoned with, arguably more so than the Barcelona team of last season.
As Fabregas pointed out however, this is but one game. There are 37 more to go in the league, and hopefully many more in the Champions League and domestic cups. Arsenal have always been good at building on leads. We will only truly see what they are made of when they face a much sterner test, which will be coming in the shape of last year's champions in a number of weeks.
Barcelona -- the prototype for this Arsenal team -- had to win all sorts of ways last season. The Gunners must learn to do the same if they are to acheive what Wenger believes they can acheive. It's all well and good winning 6-1, but what about winning 3-2 thanks to two goals in the last ten minutes, a la Barca v Osasuna? Or to bring it closer to home, what about a sneaky injury time goal to clinch all three points against a team with nine men at the back, a la Chelsea? These are the games that separate title winners from also rans. I expect Arsenal to have quite a few more days like Saturday throughout the course of the season. To win things, though, they'll have to have a few Saturday's like Chelsea's, and they'll have to bounce back from a Sunday like Liverpool's. It's a long road ahead, but with the talent on show at the Emirates, it will be a road paved with the most attractive football on English shores.
United, Liverpool and Spurs (my Top 4 pick!) to come...
Another classic case of "were X that good or were Y just so bad?", and another cliched answer - a little bit of both. Arsenal lined up as expected, although Bendtner was arguably more defensively deployed than what is usual for someone in that front three. The other surprise in relation to Bendtner was how well he played. One of my guilty opinions is that I rate the arrogant Dane quite highly (though not nearly as highly as Nicholas Bendtner rates the arrogant Dane). Last season he scored something in the region of 14 goals, which was very good considering he was Arsenal's fourth choice front man when everyone was fit...which they never were. Even so, fourth choice suggests a lack of trustworthiness; 14 goals suggests otherwise. This could be a milestone season for the promising youngster, because injuries or no injuries, he's going to get games.
The other two surprises from Arsenal's 6-1 demolition of Everton were the central midfielders Song and Denilson. The former was particularly impressive, showing bite in the tackle as well as composure in possession. He's the reason I said in my predictions post that Arsenal don't urgently need a defensive midfielder (although some cover for him would be nice). I think Song can be for Arsenal what Toure is for Barcelona: a good ball winner and a good ball player. The Cameroonian has what every midfield player needs to have, and what I think Denilson still lacks - presence. What he needs now is to be consistently present to the point where a good Alex Song performance is not a surprise, but an expectation. He has the ability, but does he have the focus and determination to produce this sort of thing every week? This will be one of the key storylines this season.
Another encouraging aspect from Saturday's game -- and this is a sort of backhanded encouragement -- was that Arsenal won well without Arshavin playing well. Half the Russian's passes went astray, and things in general didn't work for him. There'll be days like this, of course. Still, that's the benefit of having such an array of attacking talent. A player like Arshavin can have an off day, but the likes of Fabregas and Van Persie can step up to the plate. When you think that Nasri, Rosicky and Walcott are still to come back, tihs Arsenal team will be an attacking force to be reckoned with, arguably more so than the Barcelona team of last season.
As Fabregas pointed out however, this is but one game. There are 37 more to go in the league, and hopefully many more in the Champions League and domestic cups. Arsenal have always been good at building on leads. We will only truly see what they are made of when they face a much sterner test, which will be coming in the shape of last year's champions in a number of weeks.
Barcelona -- the prototype for this Arsenal team -- had to win all sorts of ways last season. The Gunners must learn to do the same if they are to acheive what Wenger believes they can acheive. It's all well and good winning 6-1, but what about winning 3-2 thanks to two goals in the last ten minutes, a la Barca v Osasuna? Or to bring it closer to home, what about a sneaky injury time goal to clinch all three points against a team with nine men at the back, a la Chelsea? These are the games that separate title winners from also rans. I expect Arsenal to have quite a few more days like Saturday throughout the course of the season. To win things, though, they'll have to have a few Saturday's like Chelsea's, and they'll have to bounce back from a Sunday like Liverpool's. It's a long road ahead, but with the talent on show at the Emirates, it will be a road paved with the most attractive football on English shores.
United, Liverpool and Spurs (my Top 4 pick!) to come...
Sunday, August 16, 2009
Preliminary Thoughts
Having seen Chelsea, Man City and Arsenal in action on Saturday (so much for disinterest in the Premier League), here are some preliminary thoughts/knee-jerk reactions to their respective performances/systems.
Chelsea
As expected, Chelsea employed the 4-4-2 diamond formation, with Mikel at the base, Lampard at the tip, and Malouda and Essien on either side. I don't believe it worked. None of these four midfielders looked comfortable on the pitch, especially Lampard. Chelsea had the lion's share of possession, yet the one they call Fat Frank rarely featured. Mikel was irrelevant, given that Hull were never going to be seeing too much of the ball. And Michael Essien will struggle in games like this, where cleverness and creativity as opposed to power and work-rate are the order of the day.
In short, if Chelsea line up in midfield like so against teams with similar tactics to Hull, they will struggle. I know they had roughly half a million shots on goal, but they only really started piling on the pressure when Ancelotti changed things at half time by taking of the irrelevancy that was Obi Mikel and bringing on Ballack, and then switching Essien into the centre where he is eminently more comfortable. Even then, it was introducing the talents of Deco that really swung things in Chelsea's favour. In a situation where you are facing nine defenders, guile and craft are the tools you need. Deco has both of these, if nothing else.
The fact that Ancelotti made the requisite substitutions, and made them swiftly, bodes well. He saw what was wrong and did his best to rectify it. What will worry him is how easily Hull dealt with any threat down either flank. Cole and Bosingwa were spectators for large parts of the game, not needed in defense and unable to get involved in attack. With those two neutralised, Chelsea offer little if any width. This may be manageable against the Hull City's of this world, but against a good team they will find that they have nowhere to go, no outlet. I just wonder how Chelsea will cope against a team that doesn't surrender possession lightly. Good thing there's not too many of them in the Premier League, from a Chelsea point of view.
A word on Anleka and Drogba. They were rubbish as a partnership, and not great as individuals. Drogba will always be a threat, but this will be in spite of rather than because of his strike partner. The two don't compliment each other in the slightest. It's like playing with two lone strikers, because there doesn't appear to be any harmony between the pair. And thanks to the Guardian's chalkboards, I have concrete evidence to suggest as much! Out of 471 Chelsea passes, precisely three involved both Drogba and Anelka, and one of those was from a kick-off. Whatever way you look at things, that's not good. Simply put, I don't trust this partnership, and I don't think Ancelotti will trust it for too long either. The Premier League's reigning top scorer could find his days numbered, but this will only serve to aid the Chelsea cause.
Key to any Chelsea success this season will be Ancelotti. To be the new Scolari, he simply has to stick by his original principles until they inevitably fail. To be the new Mourinho, he needs to continue to do what he did in the opening game - adapt. His willingness to do so make me more confident in Chelsea than I was 24 hours ago, but the real tests await.
Man City
I predicted a 4-3-3 line up for this City team, based on the players Hughes has at his disposal. It's early days yet and thus too early to conclude anything, but a loosely fitting 4-4-2 was City's formation of choice against a surprisingly good Blackburn outfit, and will perhaps be their default formation for the rest of the campaign. (As an aside, this could be the season Pederson becomes a good Fantasy Football pick again.) Barry and Ireland were in the centre, with Robinho and Wright-Phillips occupying the wings, leaving a big-guy/little-guy combination of Adebayor and Bellamy up top. I have to be honest; I didn't see Wright-Phillips or Bellamy getting much of a look in when it came to Mark Hughes picking attacking options for the starting 11. Perhaps this first game is a mere aberration; perhaps not. Only time will tell.
There were fundamental flaws to City's general approach to the game, but one thing they can't be accused of is boring. It's not often you'll see an entertaining encounter in Ewood Park on a wet day, but that's exactly what we got yesterday, largely thanks to Manchester City's risky tactics. Putting Robinho in as a left winger is a mistake in my opinion. Unless you play him off the striker, he can't be integrated into a 4-4-2 system without your team becoming incredibly vulnerable on his flank. Blackburn created numerous opportunities down their right hand side, and so one can only imagine what a Manchester United or an Arsenal might do if given similar time and space.
I can only assume that this is the formation Hughes used during pre-season, so he's probably not going to re-jig it now. But re-jig it he must if Man City are going to mount any kind of serious push for fourth place. Make no mistake about it; they were quite lucky to beat Blackburn. And a team assembled for £200m should not need to rest on luck in order to win football matches. In Ireland and Barry they possess two very good central midfield players, but I can't help but think they need a third man in there -- a de Jong or a Kompany -- who will offer the defense the protection it was crying out for yesterday, and who will help define Ireland and Barry's roles more precisely. They were a bit all over the place yesterday, and so Blackburn were free to drive trucks (or Chris Samba) through to their defense.
Perhaps mere time will be the healer, with players unfamiliar with each other gelling as the games pile up. But then of course time alone is no adhesive. The dressing room must be kept in order, players must be kept happy (though wads of cash tend to solve that little dilemma), and the tactics must allow for a solid unit to form. I think 4-4-2 will prove to be untenable, simply because 4-3-3 caters for more of City's big players in terms of where they are comfortable and where they work. Much like with Chelsea, there will be sterner tests than the one faced on Saturday. There are positives to be taken from a Man City perspective, with the main one being that they picked up a crucial three points. A loss to Blackburn -- which so easily could have happened were it not for Shay Given -- would have immediately piled the pressure on Mark Hughes and his band of rich, merry men. There is still much work to do, but if City can build up momentum then I may be proved wrong about them. They're an exciting team to watch, both because of their attack and defense, or lackthereof -- and so the Premier League is all the richer for them, in more ways than one.
more to come...
Chelsea
As expected, Chelsea employed the 4-4-2 diamond formation, with Mikel at the base, Lampard at the tip, and Malouda and Essien on either side. I don't believe it worked. None of these four midfielders looked comfortable on the pitch, especially Lampard. Chelsea had the lion's share of possession, yet the one they call Fat Frank rarely featured. Mikel was irrelevant, given that Hull were never going to be seeing too much of the ball. And Michael Essien will struggle in games like this, where cleverness and creativity as opposed to power and work-rate are the order of the day.
In short, if Chelsea line up in midfield like so against teams with similar tactics to Hull, they will struggle. I know they had roughly half a million shots on goal, but they only really started piling on the pressure when Ancelotti changed things at half time by taking of the irrelevancy that was Obi Mikel and bringing on Ballack, and then switching Essien into the centre where he is eminently more comfortable. Even then, it was introducing the talents of Deco that really swung things in Chelsea's favour. In a situation where you are facing nine defenders, guile and craft are the tools you need. Deco has both of these, if nothing else.
The fact that Ancelotti made the requisite substitutions, and made them swiftly, bodes well. He saw what was wrong and did his best to rectify it. What will worry him is how easily Hull dealt with any threat down either flank. Cole and Bosingwa were spectators for large parts of the game, not needed in defense and unable to get involved in attack. With those two neutralised, Chelsea offer little if any width. This may be manageable against the Hull City's of this world, but against a good team they will find that they have nowhere to go, no outlet. I just wonder how Chelsea will cope against a team that doesn't surrender possession lightly. Good thing there's not too many of them in the Premier League, from a Chelsea point of view.
A word on Anleka and Drogba. They were rubbish as a partnership, and not great as individuals. Drogba will always be a threat, but this will be in spite of rather than because of his strike partner. The two don't compliment each other in the slightest. It's like playing with two lone strikers, because there doesn't appear to be any harmony between the pair. And thanks to the Guardian's chalkboards, I have concrete evidence to suggest as much! Out of 471 Chelsea passes, precisely three involved both Drogba and Anelka, and one of those was from a kick-off. Whatever way you look at things, that's not good. Simply put, I don't trust this partnership, and I don't think Ancelotti will trust it for too long either. The Premier League's reigning top scorer could find his days numbered, but this will only serve to aid the Chelsea cause.
Key to any Chelsea success this season will be Ancelotti. To be the new Scolari, he simply has to stick by his original principles until they inevitably fail. To be the new Mourinho, he needs to continue to do what he did in the opening game - adapt. His willingness to do so make me more confident in Chelsea than I was 24 hours ago, but the real tests await.
Man City
I predicted a 4-3-3 line up for this City team, based on the players Hughes has at his disposal. It's early days yet and thus too early to conclude anything, but a loosely fitting 4-4-2 was City's formation of choice against a surprisingly good Blackburn outfit, and will perhaps be their default formation for the rest of the campaign. (As an aside, this could be the season Pederson becomes a good Fantasy Football pick again.) Barry and Ireland were in the centre, with Robinho and Wright-Phillips occupying the wings, leaving a big-guy/little-guy combination of Adebayor and Bellamy up top. I have to be honest; I didn't see Wright-Phillips or Bellamy getting much of a look in when it came to Mark Hughes picking attacking options for the starting 11. Perhaps this first game is a mere aberration; perhaps not. Only time will tell.
There were fundamental flaws to City's general approach to the game, but one thing they can't be accused of is boring. It's not often you'll see an entertaining encounter in Ewood Park on a wet day, but that's exactly what we got yesterday, largely thanks to Manchester City's risky tactics. Putting Robinho in as a left winger is a mistake in my opinion. Unless you play him off the striker, he can't be integrated into a 4-4-2 system without your team becoming incredibly vulnerable on his flank. Blackburn created numerous opportunities down their right hand side, and so one can only imagine what a Manchester United or an Arsenal might do if given similar time and space.
I can only assume that this is the formation Hughes used during pre-season, so he's probably not going to re-jig it now. But re-jig it he must if Man City are going to mount any kind of serious push for fourth place. Make no mistake about it; they were quite lucky to beat Blackburn. And a team assembled for £200m should not need to rest on luck in order to win football matches. In Ireland and Barry they possess two very good central midfield players, but I can't help but think they need a third man in there -- a de Jong or a Kompany -- who will offer the defense the protection it was crying out for yesterday, and who will help define Ireland and Barry's roles more precisely. They were a bit all over the place yesterday, and so Blackburn were free to drive trucks (or Chris Samba) through to their defense.
Perhaps mere time will be the healer, with players unfamiliar with each other gelling as the games pile up. But then of course time alone is no adhesive. The dressing room must be kept in order, players must be kept happy (though wads of cash tend to solve that little dilemma), and the tactics must allow for a solid unit to form. I think 4-4-2 will prove to be untenable, simply because 4-3-3 caters for more of City's big players in terms of where they are comfortable and where they work. Much like with Chelsea, there will be sterner tests than the one faced on Saturday. There are positives to be taken from a Man City perspective, with the main one being that they picked up a crucial three points. A loss to Blackburn -- which so easily could have happened were it not for Shay Given -- would have immediately piled the pressure on Mark Hughes and his band of rich, merry men. There is still much work to do, but if City can build up momentum then I may be proved wrong about them. They're an exciting team to watch, both because of their attack and defense, or lackthereof -- and so the Premier League is all the richer for them, in more ways than one.
more to come...
Saturday, August 15, 2009
Take Notice
"They'll have to be careful on set-pieces, because Blackburn are an absolutely huge team" - Pat Dolan
If Pat Dolan considers you "absolutely huge", then take notice.
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
Predictions
Season Predictions:
Premier League Winner
This season the Premier League will have traded quality for competitiveness. Out the door have gone perhaps two of the top 10 or 15 players in the world. In the door has come Phillipe Senderos, back from his year long loan in Milan. Most of the transfers amongst the high end clubs have involved players already sucking from the teet of a Premier League club, and so the unknown is whether players like Barry and Valencia can be Big 4 players as opposed to whether Shevchenko or Veron will be superstars on English shores. Perhaps the fact that the latter two were massive flops has discouraged clubs from dipping into foreign markets. Whatever the case, technically gifted foreigners have not been brought in, and the league will be the poorer for it. A player like Diego going to Juventus is a microcosm of the current trend in European football, and if it escalates then things will only get worse. Unless of course English players suddenly become technically proficient. (pause for laughter)
Anyway, onwards to my prediction for who is going to be the best of a poor but competitive lot. For the simple reason that United, Liverpool and Chelsea will be weaker this season, I'm going to tip my hat in Arsenal's direction. Their defense isn't as bad as people make it out to be, nor is their midfield. Sure a couple of signings wouldn't go astray, but if they employ the 4-3-3 somewhat as effectively as Barcelona did last season -- thus reducing the need to be defensively sound -- they can brush aside most of the 19 other teams in the league, and take enough points off their rivals to clinch the league with the lowest points tally in many a year.
Big 4
Arsenal
Man Utd
Liverpool
Tottenham
Yep. Tottenham. This is the end for Chelsea. Anelka is a joke, Drogba will lose interest, Malouda is still rubbish. I predict it will all fall to pieces for Chelsea Football Club.
Surprising strugglers
That would be Chelsea. As far as I'm concerned only their defense can save them. I expect them to be out of the title race by Christmas thanks to too many draws against mediocre opposition.
Surprise package
Why the aforementioned Tottenham, of course. Man City have overtaken them in the "this is our year to break into the Big 4" hype, and this will only serve to help the Spurs cause. They possess a couple of decent keepers, a strong defense, a solid midfield with complimentary flair in the form of Modric, and a proven strikeforce.
There are drawbacks of course. This team is mentally brittle. Losing a half 5-0 to Manchester United last season suggests as much. But they won a half against United 2-0, the beat Liverpool, the drew twice against Arsenal, and they picked up 4 points against Chelsea, all in a season where they were a bit of a shambles. If Harry can instill something resembling consistency and stability into his starting 11, the result could be a genuine push for fourth place. I don't make them favourites for 4th of course, but given the decline of the Big 4, the silly purchasing of Man City, and the inevitable falling away of Everton and villa, this -- the year when nobody seems to be saying it -- could be Tottenham's year.
Top goalscorer
Jermaine Defoe. The lure of a possible trip to the World Cup, the skyscraper that is Peter Crouch flicking balls onto him, the genius of Modric putting things on plates - it all bodes well for Defoe and for Tottenham.
Most exciting player
Andrei Arshavin. The day he leaves the Premier League will be the day it has truly died. This guy simply makes things happen. He's not afraid to try anything, from clever little passes inside the box to long-range drives to flicks inside his own half. His decision making in the final third is impeccable, possessing as he does an attacking brain that is fully formed and two feet which comply to its every whim. If Arsenal do win the league, this gooner will have been at the heart of it.
Champions League winners
I want to say Barcelona, but the player discussed in the next prediction has forced me to look elsewhere, as has the fact that it's extremely difficult to win the competition twice in a row. I'll narrow it down to three teams, then one. Liverpool, Madrid or Arsenal. I'll go with Liverpool.
Most overpriced, underperforming Swedish string of misery who has never done it when it has mattered and who will continue to disappoint even when surrounded by superstars
Zlatan Ibrahimovic
Real Madrid - What of them?
Perhaps the most intriguing storyline of the season. Will they or won't they? They have the players, they have the manager. The system will take time to develop, but if Pellegrini manages to get his players playing the way he wants them to play, I expect fireworks. Will he manage that? There are enough professional players in his ranks to make me believe he will. Kaka, Alonso, Benzema - these are no prima donnas. Even Ronaldo is extremely motivated, albeit for his own sake.
Perhaps one midfield player is missing for the complete set. For Messi, Eto'o and Henry read Ronaldo, Kaka and Benzema. For Xavi, Toure and Iniesta read Alonso, Lass and...er...Gago? Perhaps Granero will be Madrid's Iniesta, as others have said. I think they need such a player to truly become the re-incarnation of the Galacticos. A player alongside Alonso who can be the bridge between defense and attack; the one who will make the front three look even better than they are.
This is assuming a 4-3-3 of course. They could go 4-4-2, with Ronaldo as a nominal left-winger, Robben on the right, and Kaka behind Benzema. I wouldn't do this against Barcelona, but it will work against most others.
However, the secret to Madrid's success will be something very unglamorous. It will be hard work. Put it in, and they will be contenders for everything. Try and get by without it, and they will come up short when it matters. A Barcelona team full of stars needed to work hard to win. The same will be true for this Madrid team.
Man City
Unlike Real Madrid, they have neither the players nor the manager. Their signings have largely been a joke. Bellamy? Santa Cruz? De Jong? Adebayor? It's difficult to see the logic behind anything that has happened at Eastlands. It will certainly be interesting to see it all unfold, but interesting in the way it is to see a drunk man try and make his way home from a club at 3 in the morning.
Mark Hughes is out of his depth, and if the manager isn't right then nothing will be. I honestly can't believe he's still in charge, and I wouldn't be surprised if he is the first out of a job, although he's lasted this long, so...? If City replaced him with Mourinho tomorrow, I would expect them to finish in the top 4. Their players aren't great, but they're good enough to do something significant. As it is, I expect a 6th place finish, and maybe, just maybe, much worse.
What will happen to Darren Bent?
He will score a few goals, appear on Football Focus saying that all he needed was the confidence of his manager and a good run of games, he will play down his England chances saying that he's just taking things one game at a time and enjoying his football, and then he will disappear off the radar completely.
Top 4 Match of the Day cliches
- Michael Owen will score you goals.
- Key to Liverpool's success will be keeping Gerrard and Torres fit.
- Manchester United are capable of going on a run of 10, 12 games unbeaten.
- Chelsea's best signing this summer? Keeping John Terry at the club.
Player of the year
Andrei Arshavin. See above.
Best signing(s)
Honestly, there is no one I'm particularly excited about. Signing Gareth Barry was a good idea, if not particularly inspired or inspiring. Same goes for Peter Crouch.
Worst signing(s)
Premier League Winner
This season the Premier League will have traded quality for competitiveness. Out the door have gone perhaps two of the top 10 or 15 players in the world. In the door has come Phillipe Senderos, back from his year long loan in Milan. Most of the transfers amongst the high end clubs have involved players already sucking from the teet of a Premier League club, and so the unknown is whether players like Barry and Valencia can be Big 4 players as opposed to whether Shevchenko or Veron will be superstars on English shores. Perhaps the fact that the latter two were massive flops has discouraged clubs from dipping into foreign markets. Whatever the case, technically gifted foreigners have not been brought in, and the league will be the poorer for it. A player like Diego going to Juventus is a microcosm of the current trend in European football, and if it escalates then things will only get worse. Unless of course English players suddenly become technically proficient. (pause for laughter)
Anyway, onwards to my prediction for who is going to be the best of a poor but competitive lot. For the simple reason that United, Liverpool and Chelsea will be weaker this season, I'm going to tip my hat in Arsenal's direction. Their defense isn't as bad as people make it out to be, nor is their midfield. Sure a couple of signings wouldn't go astray, but if they employ the 4-3-3 somewhat as effectively as Barcelona did last season -- thus reducing the need to be defensively sound -- they can brush aside most of the 19 other teams in the league, and take enough points off their rivals to clinch the league with the lowest points tally in many a year.
Big 4
Arsenal
Man Utd
Liverpool
Tottenham
Yep. Tottenham. This is the end for Chelsea. Anelka is a joke, Drogba will lose interest, Malouda is still rubbish. I predict it will all fall to pieces for Chelsea Football Club.
Surprising strugglers
That would be Chelsea. As far as I'm concerned only their defense can save them. I expect them to be out of the title race by Christmas thanks to too many draws against mediocre opposition.
Surprise package
Why the aforementioned Tottenham, of course. Man City have overtaken them in the "this is our year to break into the Big 4" hype, and this will only serve to help the Spurs cause. They possess a couple of decent keepers, a strong defense, a solid midfield with complimentary flair in the form of Modric, and a proven strikeforce.
There are drawbacks of course. This team is mentally brittle. Losing a half 5-0 to Manchester United last season suggests as much. But they won a half against United 2-0, the beat Liverpool, the drew twice against Arsenal, and they picked up 4 points against Chelsea, all in a season where they were a bit of a shambles. If Harry can instill something resembling consistency and stability into his starting 11, the result could be a genuine push for fourth place. I don't make them favourites for 4th of course, but given the decline of the Big 4, the silly purchasing of Man City, and the inevitable falling away of Everton and villa, this -- the year when nobody seems to be saying it -- could be Tottenham's year.
Top goalscorer
Jermaine Defoe. The lure of a possible trip to the World Cup, the skyscraper that is Peter Crouch flicking balls onto him, the genius of Modric putting things on plates - it all bodes well for Defoe and for Tottenham.
Most exciting player
Andrei Arshavin. The day he leaves the Premier League will be the day it has truly died. This guy simply makes things happen. He's not afraid to try anything, from clever little passes inside the box to long-range drives to flicks inside his own half. His decision making in the final third is impeccable, possessing as he does an attacking brain that is fully formed and two feet which comply to its every whim. If Arsenal do win the league, this gooner will have been at the heart of it.
Champions League winners
I want to say Barcelona, but the player discussed in the next prediction has forced me to look elsewhere, as has the fact that it's extremely difficult to win the competition twice in a row. I'll narrow it down to three teams, then one. Liverpool, Madrid or Arsenal. I'll go with Liverpool.
Most overpriced, underperforming Swedish string of misery who has never done it when it has mattered and who will continue to disappoint even when surrounded by superstars
Zlatan Ibrahimovic
Real Madrid - What of them?
Perhaps the most intriguing storyline of the season. Will they or won't they? They have the players, they have the manager. The system will take time to develop, but if Pellegrini manages to get his players playing the way he wants them to play, I expect fireworks. Will he manage that? There are enough professional players in his ranks to make me believe he will. Kaka, Alonso, Benzema - these are no prima donnas. Even Ronaldo is extremely motivated, albeit for his own sake.
Perhaps one midfield player is missing for the complete set. For Messi, Eto'o and Henry read Ronaldo, Kaka and Benzema. For Xavi, Toure and Iniesta read Alonso, Lass and...er...Gago? Perhaps Granero will be Madrid's Iniesta, as others have said. I think they need such a player to truly become the re-incarnation of the Galacticos. A player alongside Alonso who can be the bridge between defense and attack; the one who will make the front three look even better than they are.
This is assuming a 4-3-3 of course. They could go 4-4-2, with Ronaldo as a nominal left-winger, Robben on the right, and Kaka behind Benzema. I wouldn't do this against Barcelona, but it will work against most others.
However, the secret to Madrid's success will be something very unglamorous. It will be hard work. Put it in, and they will be contenders for everything. Try and get by without it, and they will come up short when it matters. A Barcelona team full of stars needed to work hard to win. The same will be true for this Madrid team.
Man City
Unlike Real Madrid, they have neither the players nor the manager. Their signings have largely been a joke. Bellamy? Santa Cruz? De Jong? Adebayor? It's difficult to see the logic behind anything that has happened at Eastlands. It will certainly be interesting to see it all unfold, but interesting in the way it is to see a drunk man try and make his way home from a club at 3 in the morning.
Mark Hughes is out of his depth, and if the manager isn't right then nothing will be. I honestly can't believe he's still in charge, and I wouldn't be surprised if he is the first out of a job, although he's lasted this long, so...? If City replaced him with Mourinho tomorrow, I would expect them to finish in the top 4. Their players aren't great, but they're good enough to do something significant. As it is, I expect a 6th place finish, and maybe, just maybe, much worse.
What will happen to Darren Bent?
He will score a few goals, appear on Football Focus saying that all he needed was the confidence of his manager and a good run of games, he will play down his England chances saying that he's just taking things one game at a time and enjoying his football, and then he will disappear off the radar completely.
Top 4 Match of the Day cliches
- Michael Owen will score you goals.
- Key to Liverpool's success will be keeping Gerrard and Torres fit.
- Manchester United are capable of going on a run of 10, 12 games unbeaten.
- Chelsea's best signing this summer? Keeping John Terry at the club.
Player of the year
Andrei Arshavin. See above.
Best signing(s)
Honestly, there is no one I'm particularly excited about. Signing Gareth Barry was a good idea, if not particularly inspired or inspiring. Same goes for Peter Crouch.
Worst signing(s)
Michael Owen. So what if he cost nothing. So what if he's on a pay as you play contract. Before United signed him he was heavily linked with Hull City, and was a joke player for a joke club. Had Hull snapped him up, we'd all have been laughing. Why shouldn't we laugh now?
Antonio Valencia. I say this mainly because I don't like him. He's Quinton Fortune with a bit more pace. I've never been a fan of traditional wingers and I never will be. His presence on the United starting 11 will be a step backwards, to a time when they may have won Premier Leagues but when they were also well off the pace in Europe. This sounds like heresy, but give me Nani before Antonio. (I think I need a shower after writing that.) Like Michael Carrick, this will end up being a case of United making him look better than him making United better. Surely the 16m could have been better spent, especially when you consider that Arsenal paid 15m for Arshavin. When you put it like that, oh dear.
Santa Cruz and Adebayor. A £42m [?] strikeforce on paper, but what little value for money City actually got. If you're going to spend ridiculous amounts of cash, why not spend it on really good players as opposed to a profoundly lazy Arsenal reject and a forward who wasn't even the best Blackburn had to offer? Silly.
This will be a defining season for...
Wayne Rooney. The shadow has disappeared. The days spent at left-back appear to be over. For the past few seasons Wayne Rooney has been defined by what Ronaldo wasn't: a hard worker who'll sacrifice himself for the team. Now is the time when Rooney needs to be defined by what Ronaldo was: the chief attacking threat of Manchester United, the player to make things happen.
Rooney has the ability, but years of misuse by Ferguson have stunted his growth. Has he really improved since he burst onto the scene at Euro 2004? I honestly don't think so. But this can be the year to right that wrong. Will he (and this applies to Rooney and Ferguson)? Ferguson has little choice but to stick Rooney where he's at his best, and so it will be up England's Saviour to do his part. I've always been a fan (anyone who calls Andres Iniesta the best player in the world is okay by me) and so I think he will flourish this season, in spite of what's around him. I expect him to carry United to a second place finish and a Champions League semi-final, but go the distance they will not. Not with that midfield. Not with Michael Carrick at the heart of it.
*********
So that's it, unless there are other things readers want me to predict. I'd be lying if I said I was ecstatic at the birth of the new season, but there are enough good story-lines to keep me interested, if not in England then certainly in Spain.
Anyway, spread the word. Football Beauty is back, as uninformed as it ever was!
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