Damn International Break

Just when football gets really interesting the international break comes around. Here is a snapshot of how things are looking for various teams.

Man Utd have played quite poorly in the last 4 games or so. In fact in my opinion they have played quite poorly (by their standards) for most of the season, but have gotten away with it a) because of great defending and b) because of the mystique which surrounds the club. It has been said before, but they were better last year. They will probably still win the league, but I think that's only because Liverpool will drop more points between now and May. Silly Liverpool.

Speaking of Liverpool, they have been impressive, and yet I remain unconvinced. They are a bloody hard team to play against, but their 13 goals in 3 games is a tad misleading in terms of their attacking prowess. 4 of those have come from penalties, 2 have been assisted by Pepe Reina, 2 have come from free kicks, and 2 have been scored by Dossena. Gerrard appears to be getting praise from all quarters, but for me he really hasn't done anything special to justify titles like "best player in the league". All that said, Liverpool are in with a shout of winning the league. A win against Fulham is crucial, and I think they should manage it given that Fulham are now a team with basically nothing to play for. Everyone expected them to roll over for United and they didn't, but I have a sneaky feeling that they may roll over for Liverpool. We shall see...

Chelsea are no longer in the title race, and they lack the cutting edge to win the Champions League. Essien returing and Drogba running around will help them, but I just don't think it will help them enough. Can you really win things with Belletti in midfield? And if not him, Malouda?

Arsenal have done well recently, having been at one stage almost 8 points behind Villa to now 3 in front. When I posted a list of Villa's fixtures a few weeks ago it was easy to see this happening provided Arsenal got their act together, which they did. Arshavin has been an outstanding signing so far. His mere presence in the squad seems to have added something, not to mention his techinical ability and footballing intelligence. He will be missed in the Champions League, but the flip side of that is that he will be fresh for the Premier League, which will boost Arsenal's chances of lifting the trophy come May. (I'm joking. Wenger made the comment today that the title is still within in reach. It isn't.) However, as I said at the start of the season, Arsenal will have a large say in who does win the league. All 3 of the top 3 have to play the Gunners before season's end. It is on these games that the destination of the sislverware will hinge.

Aston Villa have just died a slow death. Starting two men with a combined height of about 25 feet against Liverpool kind of says it all. However, such height cannot cover up the lack of depth in the squad, and if they come back from this position they will be doing very well indeed. I still think they have a decent chance of finishing 4th. Arsenal have quite a few tricky games left, and so Villa are not without hope. If they can lose to United with dignity, and then beat West Ham and Everton (admittedly not that easy) they could find themselves within 6 or perhaps even 3 points of Arsenal. Given Villa's form this is unlikely, but the internation break should help them find a second wind or something. All I'm saying is don't write them off.

Initial Reaction:

What a rubbish draw. I don't think it could have worked out more boring. Forget all that nonsense I wrote about Porto. They don't stand a chance. Barca v Bayern should be fun, but Barca v anyone would be fun. Liverpool v Chelsea as the 'big game' is just a joke at this stage, and easily the worst of the games that could have materialised from two of the big 5 having to play each other. In short, I've never been so let down by anything in my life. If the favourites go through -- Arsenal, United, Liverpool/Chelsea and Barca -- then we'll have some cracking semi-finals, but I fear for this next round of matches. The Arsenal game should be interesting, but of course that one won't be shown on television. Oh man. I'm pissed. Just think of what the quarter-finals couyld have looked like:

Man Utd - Barcelona
Arsenal - Chelsea
Liverpool - Villarreal
Bayern - Porto

Basically any other draw would have been more satisfying for a neutral. Agreed?

The Draw

I can't wait for this draw. I mean that. I've literally stopped waiting and started writing this post in order to pass the time. While there are clearly a "big 5" in the draw, I think all eight of the teams have a reasonable -- though not equal -- chance of progress into the semis. Porto have got a decent midfield and forward line, though their defense is pretty woeful. But against a team which doesn't like to take the attacking initiative such as Liverpool and Villarreal I think Porto could do alright. Underdogs against whoever they meet? Yes, but they shouldn't be entirely useless like their compatriots in the last round. And if nothing else, it's always fun to watch a guy called 'Hulk' play. Seriously. They have a 'Hulk' on their team.

Villarreal have yet to lose to United in four outings, so they are no pushovers. I saw them against Barcelona before Christmas and they really should have won, with poor finishing letting them down. They are a technically proficient team, and should be a match for anyone. Will they win the competition? Most likely not, but they could well cause an upset if drawn against one of the big 5, and if they avoid them then I'd make them one of the favourites to get into the semi-finals, and who knows what can happen then...

Bayern are an unknown quantity. How much can you really tell about a team who wins 12-1 over two games? I can't profess to have seen a full a game of theirs -- which is largely the reason that they are "unknown" -- but I do know some of their players and on their day they could cause some bother. What is worrying is that they are not top of the German League, but that could actually work out in their favour and boost their competitive spirit. Still, I don't rate Klinsmann as a tactical coach, and so they will probably get "played" by a Benitez or a Ferguson, but against Arsenal and Barcelona they could just go hell for leather and hope for the best.

The one thing that is guaranteed from this draw is that two of the big 5 will play each other, so we're in for at least one cracking game. I've just realised that in about 15 minutes this post will be utterly meaningless, but whatever, I now only have 15 minutes to waste. Facebook here I come...

That Goal

Here is a link to that recent Barcelona goal - Barca against Almeria

Most of the passes were simple, and yet no other team plays the game quite like this. Simplicity in football is indeed beautiful.

Football and Philosophy

The best player in world football?

On thinking about who is better than who when it comes to football, how subjective are our lists? Where is the line drawn between a player being objectively better than a player and a player being better "in your opinion"? For example, Lionel Messi is a better player than Nani. There isn't a person in the world who will say otherwise. Therefore it's safe to say that Messi being better than Nani is a fact and not mere opinion, is it not? And so if we can say that in relation to these two players, shouldn't we be able to say it in relation to any two players, provided they play in similar positions? There may not be as big as gap as there is between Messi and Nani, but there should still be a way to say that X is better than Y in all cases. If there is not, then can't someone argue that Nani is better than Messi and not be wrong? Can't they just say that it's your opinion against mine, and neither of us can be right and neither of us can be wrong?

I write this as I try to decide who is better - Xavi or Iniesta, and as I think about my list of top 5 footballers. When it comes to football, where does fact end and opinion begin? Or perhaps fact never ends, and our opinions are either in line with the facts or they are not. Or perhaps there are no facts of the matter at all, and it is all opinion, with one man's Messi being another man's Nani.

Nine Tenths of the Law

I've only seen the goal once, but Barcelona's second goal against Almeria looked pretty special. The finish was lucky, but what went before it was nothing of the sort. They had just scored their first, and soon after they must have kept the ball for about two minutes. This passage of prolonged possession ended with Dani Alves surging towards the box and flicking the ball inside to Messi. Messi then rolled the ball back to Iniesta, who delightfully tipped the ball to the onrushing Alves, and the Brazilian laid it off to Bojan, who luckily squeezed the ball into the net with the aid of a deflection. It was just one of those passages of play that make you love the game of football, and more specifically, the football that this Barcelona team exhibts more often than not. I'll try and post a youtube link when there is a fitting one available.

Ps - Iniesta is one of the top 5 players in the world. Discuss.

Right and Wrong

Today I think I was proved right and wrong. Right about the state of the current Man Utd team, wrong about a certain Mr Torres. I still don't think Torres is a "great" player, but I have not seen him perform better in a red grey shirt. I didn't think he was capable of upsetting both Ferdinand and Vidic like he did, but he really was magnificent, especially in the first half. His finish was clinical, and his pass to Gerrard which led to the penalty was quality. In the big games that I've seen him in before he has often left me underwhelmed -- even when he has scored -- but against United he was outstanding. Andy Gray even went as far as to call him "the best striker in the world". From what I've seen of David Villa I might disagree, and Drogba on his day is probably more lethal, but Torres is there or thereabouts. More of these kinds of displays in the latter stages of the Champions League and he may well prove to be the most valuable hitman in the business.

Liverpool as a team were far superior to United, which makes Fergie's claims that his side had the better of it laughable. Carragher and Aurelio were rarely troubled by the industrious but limited Park and the lethargic, unwilling-to-take-on-opponents Ronaldo. The latter was particularly abject, seemingly content to prance about on the wings and hope for something to come his way rather than fight for it. The game just seemed to pass United's front three by, along with their central midfield.

I've never been a fan of Carrick's, or Anderson's for that matter. Carrick is simply not good enough to be the creative spark in a midfield, and Anderson is yet to really contribute anything of note in this first two seasons at Old Trafford (and yet for some reason people rate him really highly?). If I'm not mistaken the two played at the Emirates together earlier in the season and were less than convincing, especially when United were two behind and crying out for them to make something happen. Carrick is grand when you're 2-0 up and the opposition give you space, but his slowness of thought, average close control, and fragility in possession make him a liability when faced against someone of Mascherano's defensive calibre. As I've said before -- perhaps twice -- this is not a good Manchester United midfield. They're decent, but I would take an Alonso/Mascherano, Lampard/Essien, Fabregas/Song over it without a doubt. And when you look at Barcelona's midfield -- Xavi and Iniesta -- well, you begin to wonder about the Red Devil's Champions League credentials. They're unbreachable defense has made them favourites thus far, but now that some chinks have appeared in the armour perhaps some opinions need to be reconsidered.

Of course this could easily be, and most certiainly is, a blip. The wobbly showing at Newcastle, Wednesday's dodgy display and today's disaster don't exactly undo a season of outstanding defensive work. I expect a backlash over the next few games, so watch out Fulham etc. The quadruple is still a realistic possibility, and despite today's setback the league is stil very much theirs to throw away. However, this season, trophies might not tell the whole truth. Can you really win four major competitions and not be a great team? That sounds absolutely absurd, but in my opinion it may just be the case. If this United side were playing the one with Keane, Scholes, Beckham, Giggs et al, for me there would only be one winner, and it wouldn't be the team that has the official best player in the world.

3 in 1

In order to atone for not having seen a live Champions League game since the knockout stages began I decided to watch three of them tonight. That's right - three games of football simultaneously. Two on my laptop, one on the box. I figured since I sometimes played on about 6 online poker tables at a time I might be able to pull this feat off. Not quite.

It was hard to get a feel for any of the games, but there were still some things that were apparent. Arsenal were bad, in what was a scrappy game. I'm glad they got through, if only because they have a slightly better chance of doing something in the competition than Roma would have had. With Fabregas and co. to return they should prove difficult opponents for any team, but they will rightfully be 5th favourites to win the thing. They did well on the penalties though. I honestly didn't think they would triumph against a more experienced Roma team -- just take a look at some of their penalities, specifically Montella's and Totti's -- but the young players held their nerve so hats off to them for that. That's character building stuff right there. However, do not be surprised if they lose to Blackburn on Saturday.

Man Utd's 2-0 win was flattering to say the least. They really could, and perhaps should, have lost. Berbatov was hopeless, Carrick's limitations were exposed, and any romantics who still think that Giggs and Scholes are top players had cold water poured on them. They are favourites to go on and lift the trophy, but I hope they don't. Not just because I hate United, which I truly do. I just think that a treble or a quadruple would be ridiculously flattering for what I consider to be a good, but not great, team. I mean just look at their midfield! It's really quite average in my opinion. Bah, they're gonna win everything, aren't they? Yep, they are. Damn.

Barcelona may pose the biggest threat to them, but their defense is just too bad for me to jump on the Catalan bandwagon. They conceded two soft goals tonight, and against a more potent attack than Lyon's they could concede even more. They are a fantastic attacking force, despite the profligacy of Eto'o, and will be great entertainment value in the quarter finals. Players like Messi, Xavi and Iniesta deserve to be on the big stage, so I hope they get one of the Premier League clubs in the next round, one in the semi finals, and then beat one in the final. Now what was that about not jumping on bandwagons?

Summing Up

Go to the 1:18 mark of this clip. It basically sums up what I was talking about in a recent post.

Keep Bleeding

About three or four weeks ago I wrote a piece detailing the chinks in Barcelona's armour and the way you can exploit them. Though they looked almost unbeatable at the time of writing, there were weaknesses waiting to make themselves known. Over the last few weeks almost all of them have surfaced, along with a few others for good measure.

The goalkeeper and defense situation is a no-brainer. When you compare them to say United's back 5, well, there is no comparison really. Barcelona defend worse than most teams in the Premier League, if not all of them. When they were dominating games in midfield this fact was hidden, but now that teams have realised what needs to be done in the middle of the park (glue someone to Xavi, and hope Iniesta is out injured), then Barcelona's defense becomes vulnerable to all kinds of threats - through balls, high balls, wide balls, big balls.

The loss of Iniesta has hurt Barcelona, but they survived without him for two months before Christmas, so something else has gone wrong. As I said, Xavi is being man marked in midfield, but he is also shattered, unable to move around with abandon.

Up front, Messi has hit an anti-purple patch, though that didn't stop him from scoring a great goal against Atletico today. He seems to be taking too much on his shoulders, perhaps because Eto'o isn't contributing much in the way of creativity. I don't think Eto'o is the cats pyjamas, and it's no surprise to me that there is talk of him leaving even though he has scored so much. I've said it before and I will say it again - goals can hide fundamental flaws (actually, I don't I've ever put it like that, but you get my point). Eto'o missed two or three extremely crucial chances against Atheltico, which ultimately cost Barcelona the game today. He doesn't so much finish as he does hit the ball as hard as he can and hope for the best. Some of these shots go in of course (quite a lot of them have this season), but like his fellow African Adebayor (and like pretty much all of his fellow Africans) he misses too many good chances simply because he doesn't have a cool head when confronted with the goal posts. These misses add up, and when it matters I firmly believe Eto'o will let you down. I've been slightly critical of Torres on this blog, but I would have the Spaniard on my team before the Cameroonian any day of the week.

Henry is an enigma to me, so I'll leave him alone.

As a squad, Barcelona are shallow. There is nobody to bring off the bench that will get you a goal and make a difference. I rate Hleb perhaps higher than I should, but he doesn't appear to have settled and lacks the confidence of Guardiola. Bojan is not the player he was built up to be, and apart from those two there are no other candidates to change things in terms of attack.

There are two things I overlooked in my previous piece which are also having a huge bearing on Barcelona's results. One, they are bloody knackered. They have been playing two games a week for much of the season, and they play a very tiresome game, built largely around hassling the opposition when they don't have the ball and giving them no time or space. This has taken its toll, and the players are clearly feeling the effects. Unfortunately it just doesn't stop from here on in. Either they get a second wind, or they end up throwing away the league and getting knocked out of the Champions League by Lyon, or someone else. Such things seemed almost impossible a month ago, but I honestly wouldn't bet against them now.

The other thing I didn't mention was the mental aspect. Barcelona have been psychologically weak for the past few seasons, and it seems as if old problems are coming back to haunt them. They look shy of confidence, and are no longer dictating games the way they were. They may just be lacking a leader on the pitch, someone to lift them up by the scruff of the neck a la Roy Keane. Guardiola was that man in the 90's, but he can only do so much from the bench.

There may yet be a rejuvination, but I honestly fear the worst for Barca. Getting through to the Copa del Rey final should be priority number one. Doing this might stop the bleeding if nothing else. However, do it not and what looked like such a glorious season for so long could continue to unravel at the seams.