Monday, October 27, 2008

A Question For the Head of the Premier League:

Can Liverpool really win the Premier League? Really? Liverpool?

A lot of articles I've been reading over the last day have said "Yes" to this question. Liverpool are now considered "genuine title contenders", and with seemingly good reason too. They've beaten Manchester United at home (something they never do), they've beaten Chelsea away (something nobody ever does), and they've put away a decent team like Man City in the process too, although in slightly fortuitous circumstances in must be said. Still, those all sound like solid title winning credentials, and in a way, they are. Your record against the top teams is crucial these days - that's why United have won the league the past two season, and that's why Liverpool haven't won the league in the past two seasons...or in the 15 seasons before that. Improving their record against their "rivals" was a must if they were to mount a serious title assault. That said -- and I'm willing to go on record with this -- I still don't think Liverpool can or will win the league.

They were very impressive against United a month or so ago, and they were very impressive against Chelsea on Sunday. All the players put in big performances, and they all died for the cause. Granted it took an own goal against United and a deflection against Chelsea to help them on their way, but still, I think everyone would agree that they deserved their victories.

However, while such victories are crucial for any team with title aspirations, Liverpool just don't have the quality to go the distance in my opinion. They have some of the qualities - they're resilient, they work extremely hard, they have a 20+ goal striker (not Robbie Keane - the other one), and they work extremely hard...oh wait, I used that one already. My point is, they're good but they're not the one. They played out a boring nil all draw with Aston Villa, they failed to put away Stoke City, and they've been extremely lucky on several occasions up to now, and such luck is bound to run out sooner or later.

Unlike United and Chelsea, I just don't have any confidence in Liverpool winning every time they step onto the pitch. They're playing Portsmouth tomorrow, and I honestly think that there is a good chance they will drop points. So far this season, Liverpool's biggest win was a 3-1 defeat of PSV at Anfield, and their biggest Premier League win was a 2-0 victory away to a very poor Everton side. In other words, they've yet to beat any side by more than two goals. Every game is nearly a struggle for them, whereas with a lot of United and Chelsea games you're almost wondering just how many they're going to score even before kick off. Even Arsenal have that ability to sweep past a lot of teams and win games with seemingly minimal effort.

And speaking of Arsenal, I think they will prove to be a harder team for Liverpool to beat than either Chelsea or United. I can see Arsenal securing all six points against Liverpool, because Arsenal have something neither United or Chelsea have in abundance, and that is speed. Liverpool's full backs were rarely tested against the big two, but against Arsenal it will be a different story altogether.

Of course Arsenal are yet to be really tested themselves, so it's hard to know how they'll fair against their direct rivals (impending games against United and Chelsea will go far in determining that of course). Still, I can see Liverpool dropping the maximum points against them, whereas I wouldn't dream of saying the same with regards Man Utd and Chelsea. In a way, Liverpool undid their win against United by drawing with Stoke in the next game. I fear they could do the same against Portsmouth tomorrow.

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