You'd think that topping the group would be the priority in the Champions League, right? Well, thanks to some less than scientific analysis, I've reasoned that it's actually in Arsenal's interest to come second (and hence United's too), which is quite possibly why Wenger has his kids playing tonight.
I've taken all of the group winners and runners up, and given them a number based on their position in their respective leagues. Of course it required some guess work as to who is going to finish where tonight, but I think my assumptions are fairly accurate. Here's how I think it will pan out (excl. Arsenal, Porto, and the teams Arsenal can't draw):
Group Winners
Roma = 13
Barcelona = 1
Panathenikos = 3
Lyon = 1
Juventus = 2
Runners-Up
Inter = 1
Sporting = 3
Athletico Madrid = 6
Villarreal = 2
Bayern Munich = 2
Real Madrid = 5
Simply put, the group of teams that has the lowest average score is the one you want to avoid, right?
Well, based on who Arsenal can meet in the next round, the group winners have a total of 20. Divide that by 5 and you get an average of 4. The runners-up have a total of 19, so divide that by 6 and you get 3.166. Therefore it's better for Arsenal to finish 2nd. It's a deeply flawed system I know, but I think it's actually pretty accurate. I mean you can pretty much tell it's right based on just looking at the two lists.
However, should Man Utd be aware of this, then it's actually in their interest to finish where Arsenal finish. Since they can't draw the Gunners in the next round regardless, they're much better off giving themselves the chance to draw Porto.
For Arsenal, they're better off finishing second no matter where Utd finish.
The argument that Roma adding 13 points to the group winners total is an aberration is fair one, but I think that's mainly balanced out by the fact that Panathenikos are a dream ticket, and Lyon play in the French League, and they've yet to cause the big boys any trouble in past tournaments.
The more I've written, the more I've become aware that this make very little sense, but the bottom line is that Arsenal, and consequently Man Utd, should finish second. And for the neutral, that would mean a 50% chance of seeing Barcelona play one of the English teams in the next round. Wouldn't that be exciting? As dull as the group stages have been at times, I think we're in for a cracking knock-out stage, and I can't wait until the draw takes place on Friday week.
I've taken all of the group winners and runners up, and given them a number based on their position in their respective leagues. Of course it required some guess work as to who is going to finish where tonight, but I think my assumptions are fairly accurate. Here's how I think it will pan out (excl. Arsenal, Porto, and the teams Arsenal can't draw):
Group Winners
Roma = 13
Barcelona = 1
Panathenikos = 3
Lyon = 1
Juventus = 2
Runners-Up
Inter = 1
Sporting = 3
Athletico Madrid = 6
Villarreal = 2
Bayern Munich = 2
Real Madrid = 5
Simply put, the group of teams that has the lowest average score is the one you want to avoid, right?
Well, based on who Arsenal can meet in the next round, the group winners have a total of 20. Divide that by 5 and you get an average of 4. The runners-up have a total of 19, so divide that by 6 and you get 3.166. Therefore it's better for Arsenal to finish 2nd. It's a deeply flawed system I know, but I think it's actually pretty accurate. I mean you can pretty much tell it's right based on just looking at the two lists.
However, should Man Utd be aware of this, then it's actually in their interest to finish where Arsenal finish. Since they can't draw the Gunners in the next round regardless, they're much better off giving themselves the chance to draw Porto.
For Arsenal, they're better off finishing second no matter where Utd finish.
The argument that Roma adding 13 points to the group winners total is an aberration is fair one, but I think that's mainly balanced out by the fact that Panathenikos are a dream ticket, and Lyon play in the French League, and they've yet to cause the big boys any trouble in past tournaments.
The more I've written, the more I've become aware that this make very little sense, but the bottom line is that Arsenal, and consequently Man Utd, should finish second. And for the neutral, that would mean a 50% chance of seeing Barcelona play one of the English teams in the next round. Wouldn't that be exciting? As dull as the group stages have been at times, I think we're in for a cracking knock-out stage, and I can't wait until the draw takes place on Friday week.
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