Preliminary Thoughts Pt 3

Manchester United

If you expose yourself to football-based media and form opinions on the basis of what the general consensus is, you may find it difficult to decide on how United will do this season. In F365's season forecast, the Old Trafford lot were most writers' pick to get their hands on the trophy in May 2010, and yet in the past week the site has been largely critical of the state of this United squad. Lawro of the BBC is sticking with the Red Devils (though you can tell he's not convinced), while most others think they will be there or thereabouts. But then in steps Paul Doyle of the Guardian, predicting a 5th of 6th place finish for last season's champions, a prediction made before the first two games of the season might I add. My own foresight caused me to proclaim them runners-up, which was really just a more precise way of saying that I don't see them winning the thing.

From my own experience, there are United fans who fall into such opposing camps: those who are bullish about the quality of the squad, insisting that Michael Owen will come good etc, and those who bemoan the regression to stone-age tactics, and who hope rather than think that Owen will be prolific.

In a nail-my-colours-to-the-mast maneuver, I'm going to say with Paul Doyle that this United squad is the worst of the Big 4. It is a team running on fumes; the fumes of reputation and a winning mentality that doesn't easily go away. Such fumes are potent, no doubt, which is why I think many people predicted United to emerge victorious at the end of the season. But the reality is that the quality just isn't there, at least not in large quantities.

No disrespect to Darren Fletcher -- a player who has proved me quite wrong -- but when he is your best midfielder, something has gone awry. Rooney is a gifted footballer, but he's not the kind of footballer who can carry a team on his own. Unlike Ronaldo, Rooney needs good players around him to interchange with. Ronaldo is a guy who can pick the ball up, run around somebody, and then whack the ball into the roof of the net from 25 yards. Rooney is just not that guy. He does his best work in tandem, but he's lacking a partner. Perhaps Berbatov will emerge as the one, but all of the evidence thus far suggests otherwise.

Ferguson has said that he won't be spending any more money on strikers. If he buys an attacking midfielder then that would be a huge boost, but if he chooses to buy neither then where are the goals going to come from? How often will Rooney be winning headers from crosses, which is how United scored their first and only goal of the season? In terms of attacking prowess, it's all looking a bit bleak really.

United's cushion is their defensive quality. Though they don't have Arsenal's attacking flair, a strong defensive platform will be sufficient for picking off a team like the Gunners. But the simple fact is that most of the games United play will require little defending and much attacking. They're equipped for the former, but not so much for the latter.

It's a long season, and with the transfer market not closed yet it's still possible that Ferguson will address the rather obvious problems. The problem as I perceive it, however, is that in Fergie's mind he has addressed the problems. Owen, Valencia, Nani and Macheda represent his collective solution to the loss of Tevez and Ronaldo. But not only is this solution wholly inadequate, it also fails to take into account the state of affairs last season. With Ronaldo and Tevez in the squad, United were still far from excellent. Liverpool were the best team in England for the majority of the season, and it was clear to some people before the Champions League final, and most people after, that United were light on quality in midfield. If Ferguson kept hold of his £100m+ duo, there were still areas that required attention. He didn't keep hold of them, so all he's done is replace them with a less than adequate solution, making United far worse than they were last season -- a season when they were already skating on thin ice.

Put the terms "defensive midfielder" and "Big 4 club need" together and the usual team to crop up is Arsenal. But is it not the case that United need one far more than Arsenal do? They also need either a central midfielder who can do Carrick's job better than he himself can, or else an attacking midfielder to shoulder much of the creative burden. Get both of those types of players and Manchester United should be back in business. Get neither and Paul Doyle's controversial prediction may not seem quite so foolish in a few months time.