Saturday, November 7, 2009

Top 10 Predictions

Top 10 7 Predictions


In order to resurrect a dead blog, I was asked to come up with some left-field predictions for the coming 9 months of football. It’s hard to do this sort of thing without sounding purposefully contrary, and I won’t profess to have avoided that pitfall when all is said and done. Nevertheless, here is a collection of predictions that may or may not ruffle your feathers.

Premier League Winners

I picked Arsenal before the season began, and I see no reason to shy away from that (at the time unpopular) choice. Others -- most notably Eamon Dunphy, who completely wrote Arsenal off at the start of the season -- have joined the bandwagon since, for obvious reasons. Arsenal are playing the best football right now, and have more attacking talent at their disposal than even Barcelona. Barcelona’s bench (when at full strength) consists of Pedro, Bojan, and Jeffran. Arsenal’s has Rosicky, Nasri, Eduardo, Bendtner, Walcott. Even though I just compared, there is no comparison.

In a league campaign, Arsenal should win enough games to take the prize. They may fall short against their direct rivals, but as Manchester United proved last season, that is no obstacle to winning the league.

Champions League Finalists

It’s hard to look past Chelsea as one of the contestants, but I think they may well be joined by an outsider this season. My three to watch out for are Juventus, Inter Milan and Bordeaux, with Inter just shading it. They were quite unlucky to go out against Man Utd last season, and by getting rid of perennial CL knock-out flop Ibrahimovic they’re chances can only have been improved.

English Teams in the Champions League

The last two seasons have seen three English teams reach the semi-final stage. This season I expect there to be only one Anglo representative - the aforementioned Chelsea. Manchester United are extremely beatable right now, so unless they get a favourable draw (or invest well during January) I can’t see them going deep in the competition. Arsenal just seem like a team that will find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. They inspire no confidence when it comes to tight two-legged affairs. As for Liverpool, well, that one’s self explanatory. However, should the unlikely happen and they make it out of the group, the tired cliché will once again prove true - no one will want to draw them.

World Cup Winners

The odds suggest that a team other than Spain will win the thing, so allow me to choose at random one such team. I’ll go for Germany. A WC semi final in 2006, a Euro 2008 final. This is their time to go one step further. They’re by no means the best international side around, but a 1-0 win against Russia in Russia suggests that they are more than capable of stepping up to the plate when necessary.

World Cup Flops

The easy answer is Argentina, although if they crashed out in the group stages would it really be considered a flop given recent goings on? As such, I’m going to go against everything I believe about football and pick Spain. Their win in 2008 was remarkable for a number of reasons, one of which being the relative lack of hype surrounding them before the tournament. Things will be a lot different in 2010, and one wonders if the under-achievers tag won’t rear its ugly head once more. They breezed through qualification alright, but come next summer some key players will surely be just about ready to collapse. Xavi looks tired already, while Torres is quite literally a broken man right now whom Liverpool can’t afford to fix. Add to that list some injury prone players like villa and Iniesta, and Spain could be in trouble before a ball is even kicked in South Africa. Their defense is not likely to bail them out either. Puyol, Pique and Sergio Ramos are a collective mistake waiting to happen, so chances will always present themselves to the opposition.

My rather novel prediction is that Spain will just about make it out of their group, but then lose to high flyers England in the last 16, with England making it to the semi-final before losing out to the Germans…on penalties.

PL Player of the Season

There are currently three stand-out performers in the Premier League right now - Cesc Fabregas, Robin van Persie and Didier Drogba, with the latter looking particularly spectacular. Between the three of them they have 21 goals and 23 assists, which is phenomenal. I suppose a lot will depend on who wins the league, so given that I’ve picked Arsenal to go the distance I’ll back Fabregas to pick up the prize. After a moderate start to the season the Spaniard looks up for it (if you’ll excuse the Tony Cascarino-ism), knowing that this is as good a chance as any to win some prime silverware with the club he has spent a third of his life at.

Surprise Package of the Season

There is one team in the Premier League that is defying all reasonable expectations given the amount of average players that make up their weekly team-sheet. Rather than potentially challenging for a top 4 spot, they are in fact looking more and more likely to be taking a stab at the top prize itself. It may not come as a surprise to some, but to me the big spenders in Manchester should not be where they are, and yet they are. Of course Manchester United do have a rich history in the competition, but that doesn’t change the reality that they are hugely reliant on Darren Fletcher. Of course it’s not hard to see why that’s the case, what with Anderson, Nani, Valencia, Giggs, Carrick and Scholes being his distinctly underwhelming contempories at the club (no disrespect to Scholes, who was once the finest midfield player in the league).

Then you have Wayne Rooney, the patchiest player in England (which is no mean feat in a country boasting such patchy luminaries as Gabby Agbonlahor and Shaun Wright-Phillips). He’ll score 6 in 6 and look like the best player in the world, and then not do anything for a month. As for Berbatov, he seems to think that plucking the ball out of the sky with a velvet touch is enough to excuse him from actually playing football, a game where his team spends about 40% of the time without the ball. If he actually consistently contributed in terms of attack (and wasn’t so annoyingly smug) he might be forgiven (as Ronaldo was by many), but the Bulgarian remains unreliable, especially in games that matter.

And yet, and yet, United could win the league. A team that, on paper, is barely better than Sunderland’s, will almost certainly be there or thereabouts come May. This should surprise us, people! If I sound anti-United, I am. Unashamedly. I loathe them from the depths of my being. But don’t let that fool you into thinking that I’m completely wrong. Nobody is “objective” about anything, let alone matters pertaining to football.


As the keen observers will have noted, I was asked to make ten predictions but only mustered up seven. If there are any particular requests then fire them this way, otherwise I'll leave things as they stand.

1 comment:

Gav said...

That guys who asked you Dec... he really enjoyed reading your blog (Hold in those bloody tears Gavin... don't let them see you cry!!). I got a great email off Derek about an hour before reading this telling me some theories he had on all things footy so I've had some great reading.

Premier League Winners
Can't see Arsenal doing it. They're just not fighters.The big difference is I think Chelsea are far more likely to win when playing badly than Arsenal. Add that to the fact that I think all of the other big boys can shut down Arsenal and I just think Chelsea will be too strong for them. Oh and Chelsea will probably spend a fortune come June now that their ban is temporarily lifted. I'd bloody love to see them winning it though! If United win it will be an indictment of the whole league. FYI I hate Valencia! Earning tens of thousand a week playing for one of the biggest teams in the world, bangs in a goal... smile ya moody bastard!!

Champ League Finalists
Once again hard to look past Chelsea especially now that Pool are all but out. I'm gonna go with Sevilla because Cleary's over there now and if he isn't the secret ingredient any team needs well then I don't want to be right.

PL Teams in CL
Arsenal quarters (just can't trust them defensively over a tight two legs and grinding out results isn't their way), Chelsea winners, United quarters. I'm also gonna predict 3 Spanish teams in the semis.

World Cup Winners
I'm gonna go for Ivory Coast to reach the semis and really push hard for a final spot but just miss out. Without wanting to go for Spain I'm going with England who will beat Italy in the final on pens... that's right from one perennial flop to another.

WC Flops
If France get there I think they'll go out fairly quickly, the Dutch are always likely to mess up but I think it's gonna be Brazil who will flatter to deceive. Poor at the back (how Lucio is ahead of Alex is beyond reason) and a team relying on Robinho doesn't inspire confidence.

PL Player of the Season
I think its gonna have to be a miracle turn around for it not to be Drogba but don't back against some jingoist WC year euphoria making it Rooney.

General Comments
I think the big four will remain intact. City missed their big chance in these last few weeks and I think there'll end up a significant gap between 4th and 5th.

I think Oritzl (spelling?) will be in the Premiership by next year and Cesc will become the greatest loss ever to the Premiership.

I think City will win the Carling Cup and Liverpool will win the FA and Uefa Cup... no silverware for United!

I think United will spend huge over the next year. I think United will spend over 80mil in the next 2 windows.

... none of that was very risqué. God bless old crazy Cleary!