What To Watch

In case you’re wondering what to watch in the Champions League tonight, here is a quick guide to help you sort the wheat from the chaff.

Group A

Look no further than this group for the most intriguing match of the final round. It’s quite simple really - Bayern Munich must win to go through. If they don’t, Juve go through. The game is being played in Turin so you would fancy the home club to do enough, but unlike some around these parts, I’m not about to break football’s oldest commandment and write off the Germans. Expect a tense game, where at least one managers job hinges entirely on the result.

Group B

Herein lies the battle for top spot. Wolfsburg need to not only beat Manchester United, but to beat them either 1-0, 2-1, or by two goals. A 3-2 victory, for example, won’t be good enough, because it will give United a better head-to-head record. It is within Man Utd’s interests to finish top, because should they not, then as things stand they will have to face one of Bordeaux, Real Madrid, Fiorentina, Barelona or Sevilla - that’s almost a 50-50 chance of drawing one of Spain’s big two. However, the other three teams on that list would probably prove to be quite favourable, so finishing second might just be a blessing in disguise should the draw be kind to United, which it invariably is. That said, the list of second place teams is made up almost entirely of outfits not unlike Fiorentina, Sevilla and Bordeaux, so after some back and forth, here is the conclusion: forget about what may happen in the draw for the last 16 - the best thing is the finish top and avoid the large possibility of facing one of Spain’s big two. Given the defensive crisis at Man Utd currently, this might actually be a game worth watching if you can’t source the one above.

Group C

Things are much more complicated here. Real Madrid need to beat Marseille away from home to guarantee top spot. If they draw and Milan don’t win, then they will also finish first. However, if they draw and Milan win then the Italians’ better head-to-head record will see them snatch first prize.

But -- and this is a pretty big but -- if Marseille not only beat Madrid, but beat them 3-0 (or 4-0, or 5-1 etc), then the French club go through in second place instead of the Spaniards, provided Milan also win (who will thus finish top). If Milan don’t win and Marseille triumph 3-0, then it is first place to Marseille and second place to Madrid.

The only way Milan can go out is if they fail to beat Zurich away from home and if Marseille beat Madrid by any score at all. If Milan lose and Marseille draw, the Italians still go through thanks to a superior record against the French.

Given that Milan lost to Zurich at home, and Madrid lost to a team in the Second Division B 4-0, anything is possible. Marseille--Madrid might just be worth watching if the French manage to get an early goal or two.

Group D

The big question from this group is can Atletico Madrid make the Europa League? That tells you just about everything you need to know. Avoid group D like the plague.


In sum, there are actually some good matches to be found in the final set of group games. Who’d have thought? My order of preference would be Juve v Bayern, Marseille v Madrid, and Wolfsburg v Manchester United.