Wednesday, November 5, 2008

The House That Dunphy Gambled

Eamonn Dunphy thinks that Chelsea are going to win four trophies this year, and if I know Eamonn Dunphy like I think I do, he's probably put a lot of money on said outcome, if not his house along with everything in it (although given the amount of times he's said "I'd put my house on it" in the past and been subsequently proved wrong to do so, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if Eamonn Dunphy no longer had a house to put on anything - ah, the highs and lows of being a degenerate gambler).
Well, while Eamonn Dunphy's opinions on footballing matters are suspect at best -- except when it comes to La Liga, where he is known as (and I quote) "a student of the Spanish game" -- this is a sentiment that might well be shared by many, although maybe four trophies is pushing it. Still though, Chelsea appear to be everyone's favourite for everything, with Manchester United just behind. I used to agree with this, but now I'm not so sure.
This isn't necessarily backlash to their 3-1 loss to Roma last night, although natually enough that result does have a baring on my opinion. But take Chelsea's four hardest games so far this season (or at least the four hardest games one would have forcasted at the beginning of the season). For me, these games would have been the ones against Man Utd, Liverpool and Tottenham (all at home) and Roma away. Well, in those games Chelsea lost twice a drew twice (one of those draws being against a pitiful Spurs team under the not-so-magic Juande). I can confess to seeing only two of those games in full, and in both of those the flamboyant Chelsea who seem to beat most teams 5-0 looked void of ideas and penetration, eventually resorting to playing long balls up to er, well, John Terry in the end.
Don't get me wrong. I very much think Chelsea will be there or there abouts. However, they ain't all that in a bag of chips, or something. Take Frank Lampard for example. By the looks of those 5-0 victories he's been involved in, he's been phenomenal, showing poise and guile to go with his useful penchant for scoring goals. However, contrary to what Dunphy said last night, Lampard (like Gerrard) very much has a tendancy to going missing in games. Against both United and Liverpool he was largely ineffectual, offering none of the creativity that Chelsea so desperately craved. I don't say this to knock Lampard. I've been secretly impressed with some of what I've seen of him lately, but I still don't think he's capable of dominating a game when it really matters. He almost epitomises Chelsea this season - great against the weaker teams, not so great against the stronger teams.
In my opinion, Chelsea's utter dominance against the weaker teams will be enough to make them Premier Leauge Champions, although if I was to do a Dunphy and gamble my house (or at least my parent's house) on an outcome I'd go for United. However, when it comes to the trophy they seem to most covet - the Champions League - I think they will fall short. There are quite a few strong sides in Europe these days. They may not be as strong as the Premier League sides, but I think that on their day teams such as Real Madrid, Villarreal, Athletico Madrid, Inter Milan, and even Lyon can upset any one of the 'big four'. And then there is Barcelona, who are my tip to do the double (La Liga and CL). I don't make them as favourites because of their shakey defense, but they will take some beating, as they proved last season against United.
The bottom line is that if Chelsea are going to win four trophies, then they are going to have to start playing well against good opposition. Their next chance to do so comes against Arsenal on the 30th of November, although to be honest, it wouldn't surprise me if Arsenal were all but out of the title race by then. I guess this Saturday will be a good indication of that. Regardless of Arsenal's form however, it will still be a test for Chelsea's new brand of football. It's all well and good to be able to mow teams like Sunderland down, but you need to be able to transfer that kind of football to the big stage as well. Last season, Arsenal proved that this can be done, overrunning Liverpool for 45 minutes, and Man United for 60 with some of the best football of the season. If Chelsea are to be the dominant force in world football then they need to start doing the same, except doing it for longer periods of time and without being completely abject and naive at the back (which was and still is Arsenal's downfall, but I've talked about that enough in this blog already).

No comments: