Before I move on to tonight's game, a word on last night. Much is being made of United's performance, but one has to take into account the effect of the two goals that should never have been. They ended the game as a contest, and left United playing a team with no belief, heart, or will to even go on. Needless to say, that is an easy team to look good against. Perhaps I'm being churlish, but surely the game must be put into context, with the context being that United were handed two goals. Don't get me wrong - they fully deserve to be in the final, but I don't think we can afford to read into this game too much.
As for tonight, well, it can't be any more disappointing than last night's effort. Given it was only interesting for 7 minutes that's not saying much, but still, I expect this one to go the distance. That said, what kind of game can we expect? Something similar to the first leg? In some ways yes, but in other ways, no, and in yet more ways I don't actually know.
One thing I can guarantee is that Barcelona will see more of the ball than Chelsea. Maybe not as much as in the Nou Camp, but not far off. They really do only know how to play one way, and that is to pass the ball ad infinitum. My query is whether Stamford Bridge will help or hinder them. It is approximately a tenth of the size of the Nou Camp, which has to make a difference one way or another. My gut feeling is that the smaller pitch will help Barcelona (and Chelsea for that matter). At the Nou Camp is is easy for Barcelona to stroke the ball around without getting near the opposition's goal. However, given a smaller pitch you simply can't help but get closer to the opposition's goal. A tighter pitch will require more accuracy, but if anyone can rise to the challenge it's this Barcelona team.
Another factor in Barcelona's favour is the win against Madrid. That game must have been playing on their minds in the first leg, and so with La Liga all but wrapped up Barcelona minds will be 100% focused on the job at hand. Confidence is huge in sport, and while Chelsea are a different animal than Madrid, Barcelona will be confident of playing the way they have done for most of the season and winning.
The deployment of Messi could also change the dynamic of this game. On Saturday he played as a deep lying centre-forward, and he was magnificent. I thought this might happen in the first leg against Chelsea (in fact I may even have written as much), and I think it should happen tonight. Eto'o needs to be kept out on the wing where he can be as irrelevant as possible, and leave Messi to run at Alex and Terry. But even if this doesn't happen, Messi can only improve from a week ago, right? In fact you could say that about a few key Barcelona players. Iniesta was good last week, but he can be better, more incisive. I don't rate Eto'o very highly, but he is still better than what he showed in the first leg.
The bottom line is that Barcelona were not at their best last week and yet they still completely dominated possession and had three great chances to score. I'm almost certain they will be better at the Bridge, which leaves me believing there will beblood goals tonight.
Unfortunately, while I can predict what Barcelona are going to do with a degree of success, I have no clue how Chelsea are going to line up. Will they play the same 11? Will Anelka start? Will they attempt to complete three passes in a row? Anything I write about Chelsea will be pure conjecture, but since they need to score at least one goal it is surely not unreasonable to suggest that they may be a bit more adventurous on their home turf, especially with Barcelona's defensive woes. I haven't seen much of Caceres, but the fact that he is roughly Barcelona's fifth choice central defender doesn't exactly inspire confidence given who is in front of him. Drogba has the ability to exploit weakness like no other striker, and so there are goals for the taking should Chelsea decide they actually want to win this game.
The smaller pitch will also help Chelsea, since they will be able to support Drogba much more quickly. I don't expect Lampard to be much more influential than he was in terms of keeping the ball, but I do expect him to get forward more and have a few speculative efforts that may or may not deflect goalwards. His freekicks and corners will also be of vital importance. Madrid scored two headed goals on Saturday, and so there is no reason why Chelsea can't do the same, provided they attack with enough impetus to actually get freekicks and corners.
This is the biggest match either of these teams have left. For Chelsea it is a chance for a second bite at the cherry. A chance to atone for that slip. For Barcelona it is the chance to keep the treble alive, and a chance to show that they can actually beat an English team or two. The pressure on both sets of players will be immense, and there can be no ignoring the effect of it. A 6-2 win at the Bernabeu indicates that Barcelona can handle it. Chelsea's recent success indicates that they can handle it. Honestly, this game is too hard to call, so I won't even try. I desperatly want Barcelona to win, but their defensive liability means they will probably have to do so the hard way. Whatever the case this will be an intriguing game, and one I can't wait to see (famous last words?).
As for tonight, well, it can't be any more disappointing than last night's effort. Given it was only interesting for 7 minutes that's not saying much, but still, I expect this one to go the distance. That said, what kind of game can we expect? Something similar to the first leg? In some ways yes, but in other ways, no, and in yet more ways I don't actually know.
One thing I can guarantee is that Barcelona will see more of the ball than Chelsea. Maybe not as much as in the Nou Camp, but not far off. They really do only know how to play one way, and that is to pass the ball ad infinitum. My query is whether Stamford Bridge will help or hinder them. It is approximately a tenth of the size of the Nou Camp, which has to make a difference one way or another. My gut feeling is that the smaller pitch will help Barcelona (and Chelsea for that matter). At the Nou Camp is is easy for Barcelona to stroke the ball around without getting near the opposition's goal. However, given a smaller pitch you simply can't help but get closer to the opposition's goal. A tighter pitch will require more accuracy, but if anyone can rise to the challenge it's this Barcelona team.
Another factor in Barcelona's favour is the win against Madrid. That game must have been playing on their minds in the first leg, and so with La Liga all but wrapped up Barcelona minds will be 100% focused on the job at hand. Confidence is huge in sport, and while Chelsea are a different animal than Madrid, Barcelona will be confident of playing the way they have done for most of the season and winning.
The deployment of Messi could also change the dynamic of this game. On Saturday he played as a deep lying centre-forward, and he was magnificent. I thought this might happen in the first leg against Chelsea (in fact I may even have written as much), and I think it should happen tonight. Eto'o needs to be kept out on the wing where he can be as irrelevant as possible, and leave Messi to run at Alex and Terry. But even if this doesn't happen, Messi can only improve from a week ago, right? In fact you could say that about a few key Barcelona players. Iniesta was good last week, but he can be better, more incisive. I don't rate Eto'o very highly, but he is still better than what he showed in the first leg.
The bottom line is that Barcelona were not at their best last week and yet they still completely dominated possession and had three great chances to score. I'm almost certain they will be better at the Bridge, which leaves me believing there will be
Unfortunately, while I can predict what Barcelona are going to do with a degree of success, I have no clue how Chelsea are going to line up. Will they play the same 11? Will Anelka start? Will they attempt to complete three passes in a row? Anything I write about Chelsea will be pure conjecture, but since they need to score at least one goal it is surely not unreasonable to suggest that they may be a bit more adventurous on their home turf, especially with Barcelona's defensive woes. I haven't seen much of Caceres, but the fact that he is roughly Barcelona's fifth choice central defender doesn't exactly inspire confidence given who is in front of him. Drogba has the ability to exploit weakness like no other striker, and so there are goals for the taking should Chelsea decide they actually want to win this game.
The smaller pitch will also help Chelsea, since they will be able to support Drogba much more quickly. I don't expect Lampard to be much more influential than he was in terms of keeping the ball, but I do expect him to get forward more and have a few speculative efforts that may or may not deflect goalwards. His freekicks and corners will also be of vital importance. Madrid scored two headed goals on Saturday, and so there is no reason why Chelsea can't do the same, provided they attack with enough impetus to actually get freekicks and corners.
This is the biggest match either of these teams have left. For Chelsea it is a chance for a second bite at the cherry. A chance to atone for that slip. For Barcelona it is the chance to keep the treble alive, and a chance to show that they can actually beat an English team or two. The pressure on both sets of players will be immense, and there can be no ignoring the effect of it. A 6-2 win at the Bernabeu indicates that Barcelona can handle it. Chelsea's recent success indicates that they can handle it. Honestly, this game is too hard to call, so I won't even try. I desperatly want Barcelona to win, but their defensive liability means they will probably have to do so the hard way. Whatever the case this will be an intriguing game, and one I can't wait to see (famous last words?).
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