The general consensus in the media is that we're in for a cracking final tomorrow night. We might well be, but honestly, I can't predict what is going to happen tomorrow, which is why I have refrained from writing about a match I simply cannot wait for. Much of my confusion rests in the fact that Barcelona's starting XI remains somewhat of a mystery. Will Henry and/or Iniesta start? Who will be the left-back? These are big questions, and Pep has been very clever in keeping his hand close to his chest. Part of the reason Chelsea did so well against Barcelona was because they knew exactly who they were facing, and could formulate a game plan in advance. Of course the Man Utd team is not easy to predict either, but I have a feeling that it will be the same line-up that defeated Arsenal at the Emirates. Assuming this, and assuming the fitness of Henry and Iniesta, here is a rundown of the players I think will be involved and some quick, rather pointless comments on their potential influence:
Barcelona
Valdes - The keeper seen as a mistake waiting to happen was flawless in the semi-finals, but even if he went 100 games without conceding a goal there would still be question marks over his ability to pluck balls out of the air...and rightly so. I can see Cristiano Ronaldo's freekicks giving him some major headaches, so Barcelona must do their best to commit fouls as far away from the penalty area as possible if they are to keep Valdes from looking quite the fool.
Puyol - Up until recently, I thought his first name was Carlos. It's actually Carles. Anyway, he's got a big heart etc etc, and he is likely to make ay least one unbelievable tackle during the game, but he is also likely to be beaten by Rooney with ease. He won't give as many fouls away as Alves, and he won't give Rooney as much space as Alves would have, but -- and maybe it's simply the long, curly hair -- I just do not trust the man.
Toure - A great defensive midfielder (though aren't they all?), and so his likely shift to the back four is a blow to Barcelona. A fine player who can do a job, but I can see him being troubled by the movement of Ronaldo, Rooney, Park et al. Barcelona's hope is that he won't have much defending to do.
Pique - Was actually quite impressed with the former United reserve against Chelsea, but I can only assume he will be more severely tested this time around (or at least tested in a way less compatible with his own attributes). Capable of producing the goods, but the occasion might just get to him what hime being young and playing against a former club and all. Also, his lack of pace could well be exposed by the directness of Ronaldo.
Sylvinho - May not start, but if he does he will simply stay back and let others roam forward. Not a bad defender, and certainly not significantly worse than Abidal, but his legs might not be up for such a high intensity match.
Busquets - Has done quite well in his first season, but his inexperience means that it is hard to know how he will cope with a game of this magnitude. Usually keeps things simple and has a good aerial presence when it comes to defending corners, but Barcelona need someone more forceful than him if they are to keep United at bay. Unfortunately that person will be their central defender, so to Busquets they must look. Hardly ideal.
Xavi - Was disappointed with him in the second leg against Chelsea. His passing was off, and so while he saw a lot of the ball he didn't really cut Chelsea open. 20 assists in La Liga suggests that he is more than capable of finding the killer pass, and so much of the burden of creativity will rest on his shoulders. He's a better player than those he will be up against, and has played at this level many times before so I fancy him to do his part for the Catalan cause. Especially if he is paired with his partner in crime...
Iniesta - A fabulous player. I predicted (amongst a host of false teaching) that Iniesta would be Barcelona's most important player against Chelsea, and the 93rd minute in the second leg proved me right. If he is fit, then Barcelona's chances of victory will be boosted significantly. He will have no trouble in being man-marked, and his ball retention will help take the pressure off of Barcelona's dodgey back four. He's also good for winning free-kicks outside the box, and perhaps even a penalty. I really hope he is fit. The final will be an inferior spectacle without him.
Messi - Has yet to score against English opposition. His big game temperment has been called into question (rather harshly if you ask me) but he has the chance to make amends for a subdued semi-final by lighting up world football on its biggest stage. Will be tightly marked no doubt, but I have a feeling that Messi will come out of the shell that he seemed to be in against Chelsea. A special talent, and to repeat Dunphy's phrase, if you don't get Messi then you don't get football.
Henry - May not be fit enough to start, but if he is then John O'Shea will find it difficult to suppress the Frenchman. However, will Henry be the difference maker? You could argue that he cost Arsenal the Champions League final in 2006, missing as he did a gilt-edged chance in the second half to make it 2-0. Will such profligacy resurface? He seems to have refound his old form, but I still have my doubts about him. That said, he was good against Chelsea, and he has (I think) a formidable history when it comes to games against United. In other words, I have no idea with regards the possible extent of Henry's influence. Next...
Eto'o - There's not much more I can say about Sammy. Against a good defence he is a liability. United have a good defence, ergo...
Manchester United
Van der Saar - Prone to silly errors once in a while, and since he hasn't committed one in a few games tonight could be the night. It's hard to know who the good goalkeepers are in world football these days, but I guess the Dutchman is somewhere close to the top, thanks in no small part to the players sitting in front of him.
O'Shea - Sir has declared that John O'Shea has earned his place at right back, and it's hard to disagree. Along with Flecther he has been United's most improved player this season, and he now has a chance to make the position his own by putting in a good shift against probably Henry, but perhaps Iniesta, or even Messi (how about it? Messi on the left wing?). He will struggle for pace against any of those three, and of all the United defenders it is O'Shea that will be singled out as the weak link in the chain. Wes Brown was in a similar position last season, and put on an incredible display alongside Rio at centre-half? Will O'Shea repeat the trick? Perhaps, but if I were a Barcelona player then I would be concentrating all of the attacks down the Manchester United right hand side. It sounds harsh given the season John O'Shea has enjoyed, but it's hard to argue with the logic.
Ferdinand - The perfect partner for the more robust Vidic. How he will fair after injury is unclear, but if fully fit he will have the necessary pace to deal with Eto'o's threat, and he will also be crucial in aiding the slower O'Shea when he is inevitably beaten by Henry/Iniesta. Ferdinand, along with Brown, was immense in last season's encounter with Barcelona, and I don't expect anything different in the final.
Vidic - The perfect partner for the more refined Ferdinand. The Serb will clear up any of the aerial "threat" that Barcelona pose, but if there is to be a way through for Barcelona I think Vidic could be the culprit. Torres made him look foolish a couple of months ago, and he appears to struggle against pacey dribblers (see Kaka in 2007, although with that said, who doesn't struggle against players of Kaka's calibre?). I'm by no means suggesting United's player of the season is a liability, but if someone like, say, Messi can upset him early on then Barcelona may find more joy down the centre than one might expect.
Evra - The more he says, the less I like him. To say he kept Messi quiet a year ago is untrue, but he is a fullback who I think is as up for the challenge as anyone else. The problem with Evra is that he tends to drift out of position easily. He did so in the opening minutes of last year's semi-final second leg, and it took a cheeky Paul Scholes 'tackle' to stop Messi from getting into the United box. I do think that Messi will only occupy him for a brief period of time before the Argentine is pushed into the centre and the ineffectual Eto'o is shoved out wide. This I think will be Barcelona's best chance of exploiting United's biggest weakness - central midfield.
Carrick - He was given a chasing by Xavi and Iniesta for England in February, and I see absolutely no reason why there won't be a repeat. Carrick has his qualities, but at this level I just don't think he's good enough. He needs the dynamism of Fletcher (there's two words I never though I'd see together - Flecther and dynamism) to make up for his languid style, and so without that I think Carrick will struggle.
Giggs - I haven't seen enough of Giggs this season to say anything meaninful about him -- although that didn't stop his fellow players from nominating him as player of the season -- but from the little I've seen I would be quite happy to see him start if I were a Barcelona fan...which I am (at least for this game). Giggs is certainly more creative than Flecther, but honestly, against Barcelona you don't need anyone creative. Their defence can be penetrated rather easily, therefore what you need is players who can win you the ball back and hoof it in the general direction of Ronaldo/Rooney. I think that Giggs might just be an unnecceassy luxury, so I would be more inclined to stick Park in the centre and Tevez out wide.
Anderson - If you remember, I said at the start of the season that I don't see what all the fuss over Anderson is about. I think he's a decent player of course, but it is fair to say that his season he has been a tad underwhelming. Still, he is the type of player required for this game - someone who can win the ball back and hoof it in Ronaldo's direction. You know what - I'm going to do one of those stupid predictions where if you get it right you proclaim yourself a genius and if you get it wrong you never mention it again. Anderson to score his first goal in a United shirt.
Park - If God does indeed love a trier, then Ji Sung Park must be his favourite person in the world. You can't fault the Korean for effort, and he has a knack for getting on the end of things to. His persistent hounding will be key to the United cause, and I wouldn't be surprised if he popped up with a goal. Don't get me wrong - I think Park is an average footballer, but he's just the kind of average footballer that more often than not repays Fergie's trust.
Rooney - I'm a fan of the one they call Roo. If Roo don't like Roo then I think Roo are Roopid. Roo will Roo the day Roo ever said anything cRool about Roo. Roo's the man. He is Roo-nited's best player in my Roo-pinion, and as I Roo-minate this final I think Roo will be king of Roo-me.
Ronaldo - I don't know how to tell you this, but I'm actually not Ronaldo's biggest fan. Still, his is a lethal threat, and against a shambolic Barca defense I would expect him to flourish. As an aside, am I right in saying he has never scored against Spanish opposition? It's been made known all about the place that Messi has yet to score against English opposition, but I have an incling that CR7 is yet to score against any Spaniards. What does that tell us? Absolutely nothing, which is why the Messi statistic is nonsense too.
So in a nutshell, I'm expecting performances from precisely none of the Barcelona defence, whereas I agree with the masses in saying that United will be quite comfortable at the back. I expect Barcelona's midfield to run rings around that of United, but I'm not confident the strikers (specifically Eto'o and Henry) will capitalise on the ample possession. United won't enjoy prolonged possession, but I can almost guarantee they will look more threatening than Barcelona. So in other words, this will be exactly like Barca against Chelsea. And yet I don't see it being that way. Why? In a word, Messi. I can only see him being much more influential in the final, and while I don't think Barcelona will win, I think his presence alone makes me slightly less confident in a United triumph. Against Arsenal I was about 95% sure United would win. Right now I'm about 65-70% confident. I don't expect a wild, open game, but I do expect a game of the highest quality. I just hope Barcelona don't crumble at the back and turn it into a joke, but perhaps that's what needs to happen if they are to push on from this year's success and really concentrate on getting things in order defensively.
Barcelona
Valdes - The keeper seen as a mistake waiting to happen was flawless in the semi-finals, but even if he went 100 games without conceding a goal there would still be question marks over his ability to pluck balls out of the air...and rightly so. I can see Cristiano Ronaldo's freekicks giving him some major headaches, so Barcelona must do their best to commit fouls as far away from the penalty area as possible if they are to keep Valdes from looking quite the fool.
Puyol - Up until recently, I thought his first name was Carlos. It's actually Carles. Anyway, he's got a big heart etc etc, and he is likely to make ay least one unbelievable tackle during the game, but he is also likely to be beaten by Rooney with ease. He won't give as many fouls away as Alves, and he won't give Rooney as much space as Alves would have, but -- and maybe it's simply the long, curly hair -- I just do not trust the man.
Toure - A great defensive midfielder (though aren't they all?), and so his likely shift to the back four is a blow to Barcelona. A fine player who can do a job, but I can see him being troubled by the movement of Ronaldo, Rooney, Park et al. Barcelona's hope is that he won't have much defending to do.
Pique - Was actually quite impressed with the former United reserve against Chelsea, but I can only assume he will be more severely tested this time around (or at least tested in a way less compatible with his own attributes). Capable of producing the goods, but the occasion might just get to him what hime being young and playing against a former club and all. Also, his lack of pace could well be exposed by the directness of Ronaldo.
Sylvinho - May not start, but if he does he will simply stay back and let others roam forward. Not a bad defender, and certainly not significantly worse than Abidal, but his legs might not be up for such a high intensity match.
Busquets - Has done quite well in his first season, but his inexperience means that it is hard to know how he will cope with a game of this magnitude. Usually keeps things simple and has a good aerial presence when it comes to defending corners, but Barcelona need someone more forceful than him if they are to keep United at bay. Unfortunately that person will be their central defender, so to Busquets they must look. Hardly ideal.
Xavi - Was disappointed with him in the second leg against Chelsea. His passing was off, and so while he saw a lot of the ball he didn't really cut Chelsea open. 20 assists in La Liga suggests that he is more than capable of finding the killer pass, and so much of the burden of creativity will rest on his shoulders. He's a better player than those he will be up against, and has played at this level many times before so I fancy him to do his part for the Catalan cause. Especially if he is paired with his partner in crime...
Iniesta - A fabulous player. I predicted (amongst a host of false teaching) that Iniesta would be Barcelona's most important player against Chelsea, and the 93rd minute in the second leg proved me right. If he is fit, then Barcelona's chances of victory will be boosted significantly. He will have no trouble in being man-marked, and his ball retention will help take the pressure off of Barcelona's dodgey back four. He's also good for winning free-kicks outside the box, and perhaps even a penalty. I really hope he is fit. The final will be an inferior spectacle without him.
Messi - Has yet to score against English opposition. His big game temperment has been called into question (rather harshly if you ask me) but he has the chance to make amends for a subdued semi-final by lighting up world football on its biggest stage. Will be tightly marked no doubt, but I have a feeling that Messi will come out of the shell that he seemed to be in against Chelsea. A special talent, and to repeat Dunphy's phrase, if you don't get Messi then you don't get football.
Henry - May not be fit enough to start, but if he is then John O'Shea will find it difficult to suppress the Frenchman. However, will Henry be the difference maker? You could argue that he cost Arsenal the Champions League final in 2006, missing as he did a gilt-edged chance in the second half to make it 2-0. Will such profligacy resurface? He seems to have refound his old form, but I still have my doubts about him. That said, he was good against Chelsea, and he has (I think) a formidable history when it comes to games against United. In other words, I have no idea with regards the possible extent of Henry's influence. Next...
Eto'o - There's not much more I can say about Sammy. Against a good defence he is a liability. United have a good defence, ergo...
Manchester United
Van der Saar - Prone to silly errors once in a while, and since he hasn't committed one in a few games tonight could be the night. It's hard to know who the good goalkeepers are in world football these days, but I guess the Dutchman is somewhere close to the top, thanks in no small part to the players sitting in front of him.
O'Shea - Sir has declared that John O'Shea has earned his place at right back, and it's hard to disagree. Along with Flecther he has been United's most improved player this season, and he now has a chance to make the position his own by putting in a good shift against probably Henry, but perhaps Iniesta, or even Messi (how about it? Messi on the left wing?). He will struggle for pace against any of those three, and of all the United defenders it is O'Shea that will be singled out as the weak link in the chain. Wes Brown was in a similar position last season, and put on an incredible display alongside Rio at centre-half? Will O'Shea repeat the trick? Perhaps, but if I were a Barcelona player then I would be concentrating all of the attacks down the Manchester United right hand side. It sounds harsh given the season John O'Shea has enjoyed, but it's hard to argue with the logic.
Ferdinand - The perfect partner for the more robust Vidic. How he will fair after injury is unclear, but if fully fit he will have the necessary pace to deal with Eto'o's threat, and he will also be crucial in aiding the slower O'Shea when he is inevitably beaten by Henry/Iniesta. Ferdinand, along with Brown, was immense in last season's encounter with Barcelona, and I don't expect anything different in the final.
Vidic - The perfect partner for the more refined Ferdinand. The Serb will clear up any of the aerial "threat" that Barcelona pose, but if there is to be a way through for Barcelona I think Vidic could be the culprit. Torres made him look foolish a couple of months ago, and he appears to struggle against pacey dribblers (see Kaka in 2007, although with that said, who doesn't struggle against players of Kaka's calibre?). I'm by no means suggesting United's player of the season is a liability, but if someone like, say, Messi can upset him early on then Barcelona may find more joy down the centre than one might expect.
Evra - The more he says, the less I like him. To say he kept Messi quiet a year ago is untrue, but he is a fullback who I think is as up for the challenge as anyone else. The problem with Evra is that he tends to drift out of position easily. He did so in the opening minutes of last year's semi-final second leg, and it took a cheeky Paul Scholes 'tackle' to stop Messi from getting into the United box. I do think that Messi will only occupy him for a brief period of time before the Argentine is pushed into the centre and the ineffectual Eto'o is shoved out wide. This I think will be Barcelona's best chance of exploiting United's biggest weakness - central midfield.
Carrick - He was given a chasing by Xavi and Iniesta for England in February, and I see absolutely no reason why there won't be a repeat. Carrick has his qualities, but at this level I just don't think he's good enough. He needs the dynamism of Fletcher (there's two words I never though I'd see together - Flecther and dynamism) to make up for his languid style, and so without that I think Carrick will struggle.
Giggs - I haven't seen enough of Giggs this season to say anything meaninful about him -- although that didn't stop his fellow players from nominating him as player of the season -- but from the little I've seen I would be quite happy to see him start if I were a Barcelona fan...which I am (at least for this game). Giggs is certainly more creative than Flecther, but honestly, against Barcelona you don't need anyone creative. Their defence can be penetrated rather easily, therefore what you need is players who can win you the ball back and hoof it in the general direction of Ronaldo/Rooney. I think that Giggs might just be an unnecceassy luxury, so I would be more inclined to stick Park in the centre and Tevez out wide.
Anderson - If you remember, I said at the start of the season that I don't see what all the fuss over Anderson is about. I think he's a decent player of course, but it is fair to say that his season he has been a tad underwhelming. Still, he is the type of player required for this game - someone who can win the ball back and hoof it in Ronaldo's direction. You know what - I'm going to do one of those stupid predictions where if you get it right you proclaim yourself a genius and if you get it wrong you never mention it again. Anderson to score his first goal in a United shirt.
Park - If God does indeed love a trier, then Ji Sung Park must be his favourite person in the world. You can't fault the Korean for effort, and he has a knack for getting on the end of things to. His persistent hounding will be key to the United cause, and I wouldn't be surprised if he popped up with a goal. Don't get me wrong - I think Park is an average footballer, but he's just the kind of average footballer that more often than not repays Fergie's trust.
Rooney - I'm a fan of the one they call Roo. If Roo don't like Roo then I think Roo are Roopid. Roo will Roo the day Roo ever said anything cRool about Roo. Roo's the man. He is Roo-nited's best player in my Roo-pinion, and as I Roo-minate this final I think Roo will be king of Roo-me.
Ronaldo - I don't know how to tell you this, but I'm actually not Ronaldo's biggest fan. Still, his is a lethal threat, and against a shambolic Barca defense I would expect him to flourish. As an aside, am I right in saying he has never scored against Spanish opposition? It's been made known all about the place that Messi has yet to score against English opposition, but I have an incling that CR7 is yet to score against any Spaniards. What does that tell us? Absolutely nothing, which is why the Messi statistic is nonsense too.
So in a nutshell, I'm expecting performances from precisely none of the Barcelona defence, whereas I agree with the masses in saying that United will be quite comfortable at the back. I expect Barcelona's midfield to run rings around that of United, but I'm not confident the strikers (specifically Eto'o and Henry) will capitalise on the ample possession. United won't enjoy prolonged possession, but I can almost guarantee they will look more threatening than Barcelona. So in other words, this will be exactly like Barca against Chelsea. And yet I don't see it being that way. Why? In a word, Messi. I can only see him being much more influential in the final, and while I don't think Barcelona will win, I think his presence alone makes me slightly less confident in a United triumph. Against Arsenal I was about 95% sure United would win. Right now I'm about 65-70% confident. I don't expect a wild, open game, but I do expect a game of the highest quality. I just hope Barcelona don't crumble at the back and turn it into a joke, but perhaps that's what needs to happen if they are to push on from this year's success and really concentrate on getting things in order defensively.
5 comments:
This is gonna be great!
I woke up at 8.30 on my day off I'm so excited...
OK Kelly and Sweeney, it's time for some betting. $20 in and you have to call the score and a scorer. If you don't get it absolutely right, you don't win.
I'm saying United 2-1 and Vidic.
I suspect I may just be saying that as it's contrary to what I want. Hedging my bets, if you will.
Nice piece, Dec.
Only 2hrs 45 minutes until coverage begins on RTE. I bet you wish you were in Ireland now.
As for the bet, I said 3-1 United to someone already so I'll stick with that. He responded by predicting a Carrick goal, so I'll echo that sentiment. That's what my head says anyway. My heart says 37-0 to Barcelona.
I think I'll go with the head.
can i join???
2-1 united -rooney
i wanna go
man u 2 - 1 barcelona
scorer ronaldo
Ye can have a go alight, but it might end up costing $20. Also, Niall might not be happy that you've stolen his score line but replaced his goalscorer with ones that are much more likely to find the net.
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